Cut / hold / hike probabilities for the next decision of the 8 major central banks — updated automatically from official institutional data.
Most hawkish
RBA · +100 bps (12M)
Most dovish
BoE · -25 bps (12M)
Most recent move
RBA · +25 bps · 30 Sept 2026
Next meeting
Fed · 28 Oct 2026
USD (Fed)
Fed · Hold · 3.75–4.00%
JPY (BoJ)
BoJ · Hold · 1.25%
Policy rates, inflation, exchange rates, and bond yields update automatically from official institutional sources. The cut / hold / hike probabilities are produced by Metavulus AI Models — transparent, backtested, and calibrated. They are estimates, not guarantees, and never a trading signal.
Federal Reserve
3.75–4.00%
As of 20 Oct
High confidence · Input quality 78/100 (Strong)
Top drivers
Bank of Canada
2.25%
As of 19 Oct
Low confidence · Input quality 81/100 (Strong)
Top drivers
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
2.75%
As of 16 Oct
Medium confidence · Input quality 59/100 (Solid)
Top drivers
European Central Bank
2.50%
As of 20 Oct
Low confidence · Input quality 81/100 (Strong)
Top drivers
Bank of Japan
1.25%
As of 20 Oct
Medium confidence · Input quality 76/100 (Strong)
Top drivers
Reserve Bank of Australia
4.60%
As of 15 Oct
Medium confidence · Input quality 59/100 (Solid)
Top drivers
Bank of England
3.75%
As of 19 Oct
Medium confidence · Input quality 55/100 (Solid)
Top drivers
Swiss National Bank
0.00%
As of 20 Oct
Medium confidence · Input quality 57/100 (Solid)
Top drivers
This desk estimates cut / hold / hike probabilities for the next scheduled decision of the 8 major central banks. Metavulus AI Models combine live policy rates, inflation versus each bank's target, currency pressure, government bond yields (the market's own priced path), and live market expectations into one calibrated read — with every input shown so you can audit it.
Rate expectations move currencies, gold, indices, and bond yields. Knowing whether the next decision is priced as a cut, hold, or hike — and which inputs drive that read — is core macro context before the chart opens.
Use this as macro context, not a standalone signal. Check the drivers: a probability backed by fresh inflation data, a clear yield gap, and live market expectations deserves more attention than one running on policy momentum alone. Model accuracy is backtested on a decade of decisions and published per bank.
Policy rates, inflation, exchange rates, and yields are sourced from official institutions; meeting dates from each central bank. Probabilities are calibrated estimates by Metavulus AI Models — not financial advice and not a trading signal.
Educational market context only — not financial advice, a recommendation, or a trade signal. A bias, read, or confidence score still needs your own price confirmation, invalidation, and risk limits. Analysis can be wrong.
Source: Policy rates, inflation, exchange rates, and bond yields from official institutional sources; meeting dates from each central bank's official calendar. Probabilities by Metavulus AI Models — calibrated estimates, not market quotes.