Metavulus Research
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NFP Special Edition
NFP REGIME — Institutions centre on 70–75K versus a late research consensus near 80K. Beat: yields and hike odds rise, pressuring NQ/Gold and supporting USD. Weak: yields and hike odds fall, supporting NQ/Gold and favouring high-scoring AUD/GBP over USD.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME — Softer US labour and lower Fed hike odds weaken USD, while Hormuz talks support selective risk-on without resolving the physical tail. GBP and AUD lead the score stack; CAD and CHF remain weakest; ES is preferred over concentration-sensitive NQ.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME — Hormuz reopening optimism drove lower Oil, a weaker Dollar and a broad US equity rally. Implementation is not final: AUD leads the score stack, GBP follows, CAD and CHF remain weakest, while JPY retains a policy/intervention squeeze tail.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME — Tactical risk-on after a broad US equity rally and strong ISM, but high prices, contradictory Iran diplomacy and fresh vessel/base reports keep reversal risk elevated. AUD and NZD lead risk-on score spreads; CAD and CHF remain the weakest composites.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME — Conditional risk-on after a claimed Hormuz and denuclearisation framework, but Iran's denial, a reported CENTCOM fallback and the Khasab vessel incident prevent full confirmation. USD is neutral-to-bearish after GDP and PCE misses; this week's NFP is the decisive validation. ES breadth is preferred to NQ concentration.
FX Daily Research
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FX Daily Research
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Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME — Direct strikes remain paused and Oil fell, but no verified Hormuz accord, Saudi infrastructure attacks and a CPC outage keep physical risk live. Fed hike pricing rose to 40.09%; AUD leads the scorecard, while JPY, CHF and NQ remain weakest.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME — A conditional US–Iran strike pause supports tactical risk-on, but the Hormuz blockade and tanker-mine report keep Oil convex. Fed, ECB and RBA hike pricing rose sharply; AUD and GBP lead, while JPY, CHF and NQ remain the weakest composites.
FX Daily Research
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FX Daily Research
ACTIVE ESCALATION REGIME — Hormuz threats broadened to infrastructure and tankers, while the EIA build caps Oil. USD and AUD are bullish after a broad Australian jobs beat; EUR is neutral and relatively stronger than GBP; CAD, JPY and CHF are bearish. The ECB and Canadian retail sales are the next key risks.
FX Daily Research
ACTIVE ESCALATION REGIME — The US rejected the proposed 10-day pause and strikes continued for an eleventh night. USD/Oil are bullish; EUR, CAD and JPY are bearish. Tech rebounded, but earnings, yields and UK CPI keep event risk high.
FX Daily Research
NZD BULLISH AFTER CPI — RBNZ hike pricing reaches 79.26%. EUR and CAD are bearish on soft data; GBP is bullish but faces a labour/fiscal test. A proposed Iran halt opens risk-on, while wider war activates USD/Oil havens.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME — USD is bearish in risk-on through the 57K NFP and cooler inflation, but bullish in risk-off through US–Iran haven demand. GBP remains the clean bullish G10 expression on fiscal relief. ES breadth is healthier than NQ, while Oil carries a live two-chokepoint upside tail.
FX Daily Research
USD NEUTRAL / REGIME-DEPENDENT — Risk-on activates the bearish 57K NFP and soft-inflation thesis; risk-off activates bullish US–Iran haven demand. GBP stays bullish on fiscal relief. ES breadth holds while AI valuation pressure hits NQ.