Metavulus Research
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FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - Tech-led risk-off with a hawkish USD floor. US PMIs beat, USD and JPY found haven demand, oil fell as Hormuz risk premium faded, and ES/NQ now has a separate Section 2 read: bearish because technology deleveraging and AI valuation risk dominate despite improving COT.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - Conditional de-escalation with a hawkish USD floor. Hormuz is reported open and technical talks are progressing, but inspection commitments, frozen-fund mechanics and Lebanon remain disputed. CAD CPI was the strongest macro beat, AUD/JPY PMIs improved, GBP gained on political relief, and ES/NQ are now a separate Section 2 market: supported by short retail and improving COT, but capped by Monday Nasdaq/S&P weakness and hawkish Fed pricing.
Weekly FX Research
DOMINANT THEME - Conditional US-Iran de-escalation is now tied to Israel-Lebanon execution risk. USD has a Warsh/Fed yield floor, ES/NQ have a tactical relief tailwind, and oil remains the fastest transmission channel through Hormuz traffic rules.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - Conditional risk-on returns through Nasdaq/semiconductor leadership and Hormuz normalization, but the Fed layer is still hawkish: Fed OIS is now Hold 57.80% / Hike 42.20% and +10.55 bps for 29 July versus prior +10.25 bps. USD keeps a policy floor, ES/NQ becomes the cleanest risk-on expression, oil is pressured by reopening, and gold/CHF retain insurance value against Lebanon or failed execution.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - Hawkish Fed shock plus non-final US-Iran MoU. Fed pricing shifted from prior Hold 80.36% / Hike 19.64% and +4.91 bps into the decision to latest Hold 59.00% / Hike 41.00% and +10.25 bps for 29 July, while Iran still has a 60-day negotiation tail, no immediate sanctions relief, and live Lebanon/Hormuz risk.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - Fed day now intersects with an implementation-led US-Iran/Hormuz relief regime. Lower oil and yields support ES/NQ and high-beta FX, but sticky US import prices, Warsh guidance, tolling disputes and Lebanon risk keep the reversal tail alive.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - The US-Iran/Hormuz MOU is now the central market regime. Risk-on supports ES/NQ and high-beta FX, while implementation risk around verification, sanctions, Lebanon and Israel keeps the reversal tail alive.
Weekly FX Research
DOMINANT THEME - Sticky inflation and a dense central-bank week collide with a conditional US-Iran peace framework. USD has a hawkish floor, ES/NQ have a relief-rally tailwind, and every risk-on call remains contingent on Hormuz reopening and lower yields.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - US-Iran deal optimism drives risk-on: equities and high-beta FX recover while oil, gold, USD and havens lose geopolitical premium. The agreement is not yet formally finalized by Tehran, so implementation risk remains the key reversal trigger.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - Soft US core CPI cut June Fed hike pricing to 2.60% and is mechanically bearish USD, but direct US-Iran re-escalation keeps USD and oil supported. The ECB remains 95% hike-priced, while ES/NQ is bearish on the AI unwind and war risk.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - US data are mixed and June Fed hike pricing fell to 9.24%, but US-Iran retaliation preserves hedge demand. ECB and BoJ remain hawkish, RBA pricing collapsed, BoC is expected to hold, oil regained an upside tail, and ES/NQ is neutral into CPI.
FX Daily Research
DOMINANT THEME - The fresh calendar is JPY-positive and GBP-positive, EUR growth-negative, and USD hedge-positive through Iran/Hormuz risk. Fed pricing is more hawkish, oil remains geopolitically supported but capped by ceasefire talk, and ES/NQ is neutral-to-bullish tactically after a tech-led rebound with weak breadth.
Weekly FX Research
DOMINANT THEME - US labour and ISM data strengthen the USD and raise Fed-hike risk. ECB/RBNZ/BoJ pricing is hawkish, CAD has a major labour offset, Iran/Hormuz remains unresolved, and the new ES/NQ equity section is neutral-to-bullish but tactical because AI leadership is fighting negative COT and higher-yield risk.
FX Daily Research
Dominant Theme - Softer US claims and unit labor costs reduce immediate Fed pressure, but US-Iran final-negotiation risk, Lebanon spillover, tariffs, and oil duration keep hedge demand alive. Section 2 biases combine Section 1 macro/notable updates, current institution commentaries, market pricing, COT, and retail sentiment. ES/NQ are split: ES has better breadth, while NQ needs AI/semis to stabilize.
FX Daily Research
Dominant Theme - US services, ADP, and factory orders argue against recession and support USD/ES cyclicals, but US-Iran conflict, oil, and Fed hawkish risk keep yields as the pressure valve. Section 2 biases now use Section 1 macro plus notable updates, institution commentaries, and updated market pricing/retail sentiment. ES/NQ are added as a core US Equity card.
FX Daily Research
Dominant Theme - Strong US ISM and construction data rebuilt USD and ES/NQ growth support, while elevated ISM prices, oil, and central-bank supply-shock warnings kept yields as the pressure valve. US-Iran/Hormuz headlines turned more fragile as blockade, Bab al-Mandab, Lebanon, and shipping-risk narratives returned. ES/NQ stay neutral-to-bullish on AI leadership and crowd-short retail, but worsening COT and oil/yield escalation cap conviction.