Metavulus Research
Public previews from the Daily Research desk. Full reports include the deeper macro map, FX scenarios, positioning context, trade ideas, and event risk.
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Daily Research
CORE REGIME — AI-led risk-on: SPX +1.5%, NQ +2.9%, WTI -4.3%, DXY +0.2%. AUD is strongest at +3; NQ +2; USD and ES +1. CHF -3 and CAD -2 are weakest. Diplomacy lowered the oil premium without securing Hormuz or the Red Sea. Bullock, Lagarde and Fed speakers are today's main policy tests.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME · Fed tightening and fragile Gulf supply keep yields and risk appetite volatile. Thursday's Australian jobs and SNB decision are the main scheduled FX tests; physical flows remain the dominant unscheduled catalyst.
Daily Research
CORE REGIME — A broader relief rally lifts SPX 1.14%, NQ 1.73% and gold 1.8% as the 10-year eases to 4.94%. RBA Hike 93.09% (+12.65pp) supports AUD; ECB 42.82% (-8.66pp) and RBNZ 59.84% (-7.00pp) ease. USD and AUD +3; NZD, EUR, GBP and ES/NQ -1; CAD -2; CHF -3. BoJ decision and guidance are today’s main binary; the supplied 76.50% panel conflicts with report-time fully-priced language.
Daily Research
CORE REGIME — A unanimous 25bp Fed hike and the 2027 plateau support USD as the 10-year reaches 5.02%. Oil retreats but infrastructure risk remains. Fed October Hike 49.29% is a meeting roll; BoJ Hike 93.54% (+15.76pp), RBNZ 66.84% (+7.32pp). AUD and USD +2; JPY +1; CHF -3; NZD, CAD, ES and NQ -2. BoE votes and guidance are today’s main policy test.
Daily Research
CORE REGIME — Oil supply shock and 5.01% US yields sustain defensive conditions. Fed Hike 95.36% (-2.14pp vs 15 Sep); ECB Hike 55.59% (-12.42pp). USD and AUD +2; CHF -3; NZD, ES and NQ -2. AUD strength is positioning-led and requires risk-on confirmation.
Daily Research
CORE REGIME — Fed Hike 97.50% (+8.57pp vs 14 Sep), 10-year yield tested 5%, and AI-safety headlines pressured NQ. Oil remains supported by the Saudi pipeline outage and Hormuz risk, but diplomacy capped the spike. AUD +3 is strongest; NZD, CAD and CHF are -2; ES/NQ are -2.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME · Oman talks postponed; Saudi East–West pipeline temporarily shut. Energy supply risk keeps the week defensive. Fed hike 88.93% is the supplied pre-refresh snapshot, not live pricing.
Daily Research
CORE REGIME — US August CPI 19:30 WIB is the last input before the 15-16 Sep FOMC; Fed repriced to Hike 72.86% from 63.21%. Brent US$107.63 (+6.3%), 30-year yield 5.366%, highest since 2007. Mokha falls: a second chokepoint at Bab al-Mandeb. Whole G10 curve hawkish — RBNZ +32.29pp, BoC +21.00pp, RBA +19.33pp. AUD +3 strongest, NZD and CHF −3 weakest. Published pre-CPI.
Daily Research
CORE REGIME — Brent >$100, 10-year yields ~4.837% (highest since Nov 2023) and US–Iran / maritime escalation keep a risk-off overlay into ECB, PPI and CPI. Treasury buyback max US$6bn disappointed vs ~US$10bn hopes (still 3× old US$2bn) — sell-the-fact vs 19 Aug. Fed Hike 63.21% unchanged vs 9 Sep. AUD strongest FX final (+2); NZD and CHF weakest (−3). CAD improves to neutral (0) on the oil cushion. Scenario Distribution unchanged vs 9 Sep across all eight CBs.
Daily Research
CORE REGIME — US–Canada trade bans and CENTCOM’s destruction of five IRGC-linked tankers keep an energy and risk premium alive into US CPI/PPI and the FOMC. Fed Hike 63.21% is unchanged vs 8 Sep. AUD retains the strongest FX final score (+2); NZD and CHF remain weakest (−3). Scenario Distribution is unchanged versus the 8 September digest across all eight central banks.
Daily Research
CORE REGIME — Energy risk and the CPI hurdle still support tactical USD. Stronger Japanese wages favour JPY normalisation, while weaker Australian confidence tempers AUD’s carry advantage. AUD retains the strongest FX final score; NZD and CHF remain weakest. Verified diplomacy, physical shipping and central-bank guidance decide which conditional trades activate.
Weekly FX Research
CORE REGIME · Resilient US payrolls restore the inflation hurdle. AUD relative carry and BoJ repricing stand out; NZD faces an October pause and CAD a jobs–tariff conflict. ECB guidance, US PPI/CPI and verified energy flows decide whether risk-on relief can last.
FX Daily Research
CORE REGIME — Waller opened a September hold path if August inflation progresses, cutting Fed Hike odds to 52.50% into NFP. ISM Services beat with Prices 72.6 hot. ECB Hike is fully priced at 100%; RBA Hike jumped to 63.17%. Hormuz stays contested — Vance cited ~15 mbpd Wednesday — and an IRGC missile claim is unconfirmed. AUD remains the strongest complete FX score; NZD the weakest. Gold +1.8% on the Dollar soft patch; Oil keeps a geo premium.
FX Daily Research
CORE REGIME — The market shifted from one-way inflationary risk-off toward selective differentiation. CAD gained a policy-and-Oil cushion after a hawkish BoC hold; JPY experienced an intervention-driven short squeeze rather than broad USD weakness; AUD retained the strongest complete score on China and trade support; NZD fell to the weakest FX score after a -9.0% terms-of-trade shock. Hormuz passage remains functional but contested, so physical disruption—not rhetoric—is the escalation gate. Waller, claims and ISM services are the final major US inputs before payrolls.
FX Daily Research
CORE REGIME — Direct US–Iran retaliation and contested Hormuz access created an inflationary risk-off regime: Oil and tactical USD lead, yields stay high, and Gold cannot rely on haven demand alone. AUD holds the strongest complete score after a consumption-led GDP beat and stronger RBA pricing, although weak capex and a negative chain-price impulse reduce the quality of the headline. NZD’s sharp post-RBNZ decline confirms a dovish relative surprise from a fully priced hike; NQ remains the weakest cross-asset stack. BoC guidance and verified shipping flows are today’s primary gates.
FX Daily Research
CORE REGIME — Renewed US–Iran strikes and contested Hormuz navigation lift Oil and the inflation tail, while functioning nightly flows prevent a full supply panic. Fed, ECB, RBNZ and BoJ pricing is hawkish; long yields and narrow equity breadth keep ES/NQ fragile. AUD carries the strongest complete score, CAD and CHF the weakest, but physical escalation can override every relative-value signal.