02:35:141m
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•CNYLOW
China's Premier Li Qiang: China's innovation stems from effort and investment
GeopoliticalChina
• CNY LOW - Asset is mentioned, but directional impact is not clear yet.
Latest market data as of 24 June 2026Archive: 14d
Market pulse
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• CNY LOW - Asset is mentioned, but directional impact is not clear yet.
The split verdict in the May CPI, a headline miss and a core beat, is the worst combination for the RBA's communication task. The bank cannot claim the inflation problem is resolving while trimmed mean is running 1.1 percentage points above the midpoint of its target band and 0.6 points above the band's ceiling, and accelerating. The fuel excise extension to end-July provides a mechanical buffer on the headline for one more month, but it actively complicates the underlying signal and the RBA has been explicit that secondary pass-through from energy costs into broader prices remains a concern. Markets moving to 36% for an August hike and 67% for December reflect a board that is not yet compelled to move but is far from done. The labour force data due later this week is now the fulcrum: a soft unemployment print could push August hike odds back toward 50%, while any deterioration in employment conditions would take pressure off a board that has already delivered three hikes this year. The AUD's flat response and the two-basis-point slip in three-year yields suggest the market read this as a modest hawkish tilt that changes nothing decisively. --- Australia's May headline CPI slowed to 4.0%, below the 4.3% forecast, but trimmed mean core inflation rose to 3.6%, above estimates, keeping RBA August hike odds at around 36%. Summary: Australia's May headline CPI fell 0.7% month-on-month and slowed to 4.0% year-on-year, below the 4.3% consensus and the prior 4.2%, driven by falls in petrol, clothing and holiday travel, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Trimmed mean core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, above the 0.3% monthly forecast and accelerating from 3.4% in April, sitting 1.1 percentage points above the RBA's 2.5% target midpoint and 0.6 points above the top of the band The weighted median, the second core measure, rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, up from 3.5% and 0.2% respectively in April, corroborating the trimmed mean acceleration Fuel prices fell 11.9% month-on-month in May following a 7% decline in April, reflecting lower global oil prices and the government's fuel excise cut, which has since been extended at 50% through to end-July The RBA has raised the cash rate three times in 2026 to 4.35%, fully reversing 2025 easing, and had forecast headline CPI peaking at 4.8% in Q2 and trimmed mean reaching 3.8%, both now tracking below those levels Markets are pricing approximately 36% odds of an RBA hike in August and around 67% for December, with this week's labour force data, particularly the unemployment rate, seen as the next key input for the policy outlook Australia's May consumer price index delivered a split verdict on Wednesday that leaves the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy calculus essentially unchanged: headline inflation slowed more than expected, but core inflation accelerated, keeping the prospect of a fourth rate hike this year firmly on the table. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that headline CPI fell 0.7% in May from the prior month, pushing the annual pace down to 4.0% from 4.2% in April and undershooting the market consensus of 4.3%. The monthly decline was driven by falls in petrol, clothing and holiday travel costs. Fuel prices dropped 11.9% in the month, following a 7% decline in April, reflecting both lower global oil prices in the wake of the US-Iran ceasefire and the government's fuel excise reduction. That excise cut has since been extended, at 50% of its original size, through to the end of July, providing a further mechanical drag on the headline reading for at least one more month. The relief on the headline, however, was undermined by the core measures. The trimmed mean rose 0.4% in May, above the 0.3% forecast, pushing the annual pace up to 3.6% from 3.4% in April. The weighted median, the second core measure the RBA monitors closely, also rose 0.4% on the month and 3.6% on the year, up from 3.5% and 0.2% respectively. Both readings sit 1.1 percentage points above the midpoint of the RBA's 2% to 3% target band and 0.6 points above the band's ceiling, and both are moving in the wrong direction. The RBA entered 2026 with its own forecasts calling for headline inflation to peak at 4.8% in the second quarter and trimmed mean to reach 3.8%. Both are tracking below those projections, partly because the Iran ceasefire has driven oil prices sharply lower in a development the bank would not have anticipated when those forecasts were published in May. The RBA has nonetheless maintained that it remains concerned about secondary effects from the energy shock feeding through into broader prices, a caution that Wednesday's core acceleration does nothing to dispel. The bank has raised rates three times this year to 4.35%, fully reversing the easing implemented in 2025, and the May data does not provide sufficient cover to rule out a fourth move. Markets moved to price approximately 36% odds of an August hike following the release, with December sitting at around 67%, reflecting a board seen as on hold for now but far from finished. The Australian dollar was flat at around $0.6917, and three-year government bond yields slipped two basis points to 4.399%, consistent with a market that read the report as a modest hawkish tilt rather than a decisive signal in either direction. The next pivot point is this week's labour force data, with the unemployment rate in particular seen as the variable most likely to shift the August calculus. A tighter-than-expected labour market would reinforce the case for the RBA to move again; any sign of softening employment conditions would give the board reason to wait and watch the core inflation trajectory for another month before acting. --- Next meeting is 7 or so weeks away: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
◆ RATES HIGH - Hot inflation lifts Fed rate-path expectations and front-end yields.
• JPY LOW - Asset is mentioned, but directional impact is not clear yet.
The combination of a near-$65 billion buyback and active government coordination with both Samsung and SK Hynix on accelerated chip facility construction is a rare double catalyst for Korean equities and explains the session bounce. The buyback, if confirmed, would rank among the largest single corporate capital return programmes in Asian market history and addresses a persistent discount that foreign investors have applied to Samsung relative to global semiconductor peers on governance and capital allocation grounds. The acceleration of new chip facility timelines by more than a decade, driven by AI demand, signals that both companies and the government view the current AI infrastructure build-out as a structural rather than cyclical opportunity. For global semiconductor supply chains, a second major Korean chip cluster coming online earlier than previously planned has implications for memory pricing, equipment demand and the competitive positioning of TSMC and other regional players. Citi's earlier note flagging Korean equity positioning surging toward stretched extremes takes on added context here: the sharp move in Korean stocks today may have been partially anticipated by positioning data that was already signalling aggressive re-entry into the market. --- Samsung Electronics is planning a 90 trillion won ($65bn) share buyback and South Korea is in talks with Samsung and SK Hynix on accelerating a new AI chip cluster by over a decade to 2034-35. Summary: South Korea's government is in active discussions with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix on plans for a new large-scale semiconductor cluster, with a formal announcement described as imminent, according to a presidential policy adviser Presidential adviser Kim Yong-beom said AI-driven chip demand growth could require the two companies to accelerate ongoing facility construction by more than ten years, bringing the target timeline forward to 2034-2035, per the panel discussion Samsung Electronics is planning a share buyback programme worth 90 trillion won, equivalent to approximately $65 billion, according to a Yonhap News Agency report citing unidentified industry sources, with details expected to be announced shortly The buyback follows a wage agreement between Samsung management and its union under which approximately 10.5% of operating profit from the chip division will be set aside as special bonuses paid in stock, with the total cost estimated at 154 trillion won including tax, per Yonhap Employees receiving bonus shares will be able to sell one third immediately, with the remaining two thirds subject to one and two-year lock-up periods respectively, according to the report South Korea's KOSPI has bounced in Wednesday trade, with the semiconductor sector leading gains on the confluence of the buyback report and government chip investment signals South Korean equities staged a bit of a recovery on Wednesday as two major developments landed in close succession: a report that Samsung Electronics is planning a share buyback programme worth 90 trillion won, equivalent to approximately $65 billion, and confirmation that the government is in active talks with both Samsung and SK Hynix on accelerating a second large-scale semiconductor cluster by more than a decade. The buyback report, carried by Yonhap News Agency citing unidentified industry sources, would represent one of the largest capital return programmes in Asian corporate history if confirmed. Samsung said it would announce details shortly. The programme follows a pay agreement reached last month between the company's management and its union, under which approximately 10.5% of the chip division's operating profit will be distributed as special bonuses to employees in the form of stock. The total cost of that commitment, including tax obligations running to 40% of the gross amount, is estimated at 154 trillion won. Employees will be able to sell one third of their bonus shares immediately on receipt, with the remaining portions subject to one-year and two-year lock-up periods. The scale of the buyback, if it proceeds as reported, directly addresses one of the longest-standing criticisms of Samsung from foreign institutional investors: that the company has historically retained capital on its balance sheet rather than returning it to shareholders at a rate commensurate with its earnings power. A programme of this size would signal a structural shift in capital allocation philosophy and could narrow the discount that has persistently separated Samsung's valuation from those of its global semiconductor peers. The government dimension adds a strategic layer that goes beyond near-term market sentiment. Presidential policy adviser Kim Yong-beom told a panel discussion that explosive growth in AI-driven chip demand could require Samsung and SK Hynix to accelerate the construction of new facilities by more than ten years, bringing an ambitious new cluster online by 2034 to 2035 rather than in the mid-2040s as previously envisaged. Kim flagged that the challenge of identifying a site for a second major cluster was already a live policy question, with a formal announcement on plans described as imminent. The framing from Seoul is unambiguous: South Korea views the global AI infrastructure build-out as a generational opportunity and intends to position its two dominant chipmakers at the centre of the supply response. For SK Hynix, which has emerged as a critical supplier of high-bandwidth memory to Nvidia and other AI accelerator manufacturers, the government's backing for accelerated expansion reinforces a competitive position that is already drawing significant foreign investor interest. For Samsung, the combination of a massive capital return and state-backed expansion plans addresses both the valuation discount and the strategic growth narrative simultaneously, making Wednesday's session bounce look less like a relief rally and more like a re-rating in progress. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
▲ EQ HIGH - Improving risk appetite supports equities.
• JPY LOW - Asset is mentioned, but directional impact is not clear yet.
• JPY LOW - Asset is mentioned, but directional impact is not clear yet.
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