Read the board like a desk: which currencies have macro support, where the evidence is mixed, what invalidates the read, and which assets should react first.
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G8 FX
Horizon
1W tactical
Updated
Jul 14, 2:03 AM
Educational market context only — not financial advice, a recommendation, or a trade signal. A bias, read, or confidence score still needs your own price confirmation, invalidation, and risk limits. Analysis can be wrong.
Strongest read
JPY
Supported by BoJ normalization risk and carry unwind asymmetry.
Weakest read
NZD
Growth pressure and dovish RBNZ repricing dominate.
Best risk-on proxy
AUD
Needs China, commodities, and RBA data to stay aligned.
Main invalidation
US data miss
A clean downside US data surprise would reduce USD/yield support and change the board.
Rows show the macro drivers that matter for FX. Columns show whether each driver supports or pressures the currency. Treat this as preparation context, not a standalone trade signal.
Strongest
JPY
Weakest
NZD
Avg score
+0.6
USD
+4United States
EUR
-4Eurozone
GBP
+2United Kingdom
CAD
-1Canada
AUD
+5Australia
NZD
-6New Zealand
JPY
+6Japan
CHF
-1Switzerland
Fundamental data
Economic growth
Activity remains resilient enough to support yields.
Soft PMIs keep growth confirmation weak.
Retail strength offsets softer real activity.
Trade support is offset by softer domestic data.
Commodity and China sensitivity can help if risk stays bid.
Growth pressure keeps the RBNZ cut path alive.
Growth is patchy, but external balance is improving.
Domestic growth is not the main CHF driver now.
Fundamental data
Inflation pressure
Sticky services keep Fed easing expectations capped.
Disinflation is visible, but services remain watched.
Services CPI and wages still matter for BoE repricing.
Disinflation supports easier BoC policy.
Uneven inflation progress keeps RBA caution alive.
Inflation is less able to offset growth weakness.
Wage-linked inflation supports normalization risk.
Low inflation reduces the need for restrictive policy.
Fundamental data
Labour market
Cooling is visible but not a clean break.
Jobs are steadier than the growth backdrop.
Wages keep sterling sensitive to upside surprises.
Labour softness would strengthen BoC easing pressure.
Jobs data is a two-way risk for RBA pricing.
Labour cooling reinforces the weaker growth read.
Tight labour supports wage and BoJ normalization logic.
Labour is stable, but not a strong CHF catalyst.
Policy and rates
Central bank tone
Fed is data dependent rather than clearly dovish.
ECB has more visible easing risk than the Fed.
BoE vote split can still move both directions.
BoC path leans easier when growth is soft.
RBA remains data-sensitive, not decisively hawkish.
RBNZ easing bar is lower because growth is weaker.
BoJ normalization risk gives JPY asymmetric support.
SNB has room to sound less restrictive.
Policy and rates
Yield and carry
Front-end yield support still matters for DXY.
Rate differential is vulnerable if ECB reprices lower.
Sticky wages can keep GBP carry competitive.
BoC divergence can weigh on CAD carry.
Carry needs China and commodity confirmation.
Dovish repricing keeps carry fragile.
Carry unwind risk is the cleanest JPY channel.
Safe-haven bid can offset lower carry.
Market pressure
External and commodity link
Dollar is more rates-led than trade-led here.
Energy relief helps, but growth still needs confirmation.
Trade softness keeps GBP rallies vulnerable.
Oil sensitivity can cushion CAD when crude is firm.
China and metals can quickly improve AUD tone.
Dairy and China links are not clean enough yet.
Current-account support improves the medium-term read.
CHF is mostly global-risk driven, not commodity-linked.
Market pressure
Risk sensitivity
USD can gain on yields or stress, but fade on soft landing.
EUR needs risk appetite without a growth miss.
GBP follows domestic repricing more than broad beta.
Risk-on plus oil is the clean CAD support mix.
AUD benefits most when risk and China improve together.
NZD beta needs growth confirmation to sustain.
Stress or carry unwind can strengthen JPY quickly.
CHF still works as a defensive balance sheet currency.
Market pressure
Trend
DXY needs yield confirmation before trend extension.
EUR rallies are still prone to fade without growth.
GBP is trapped between wages and weak activity.
CAD needs oil and BoC divergence to resolve.
AUD has the cleanest pro-risk upside if China holds.
NZD underperforms when growth pressure leads.
JPY improves when BoJ and carry unwind align.
CHF is waiting for a clearer global-risk impulse.
United States
Still supported by yields, but needs fresh inflation or payroll confirmation.
Eurozone
Growth softness and ECB easing risk keep rallies vulnerable.
United Kingdom
Wage and services inflation support GBP, while activity still caps conviction.
Canada
Oil helps, but BoC easing risk keeps CAD from clean strength.
Australia
The cleanest pro-risk currency if China, commodities, and RBA data align.
New Zealand
Growth and RBNZ repricing make NZD the weakest beta read.
Japan
BoJ normalization plus carry unwind risk gives JPY the strongest asymmetric setup.
Switzerland
Lower inflation weakens carry, but CHF still catches defensive demand.
United States
Policy path is data-dependent, with cuts still gated by inflation evidence.
CPI, PCE, payrolls, Powell tone, and front-end yields.
Eurozone
Growth softness keeps easing risk alive despite sticky services inflation.
Eurozone CPI, PMIs, wage data, and Lagarde guidance.
United Kingdom
Services inflation and wages decide the next repricing.
UK CPI, labor market, retail sales, and vote split.
Japan
Normalization risk matters when JPY carry unwinds.
Tokyo CPI, wages, JGB yields, and intervention language.
Australia
Inflation progress is uneven, keeping AUD sensitive to data surprise.
Trimmed mean CPI, jobs, China demand, and commodities.
New Zealand
Growth pressure keeps the bar lower for cuts.
CPI, jobs, housing, and dairy-linked demand.
Canada
Disinflation and growth softness support easier policy.
Canada CPI, jobs, oil sensitivity, and Fed divergence.
Desk rule
Use the scanner to decide where attention belongs. Execution still needs price structure, session timing, risk level, and invalidation.
Inflation
Sticky services are the key inflation risk.
Jobs
Cooling is visible, but not a clean break.
Growth
Resilient enough to support yields.
Still supported by yields, but needs fresh inflation or payroll confirmation.
Inflation
Disinflation is visible, services still watched.
Jobs
Labour is steadier than growth.
Growth
Soft momentum keeps ECB easing risk alive.
Growth softness and ECB easing risk keep rallies vulnerable.
Inflation
Services CPI and wages remain decisive.
Jobs
Wage pressure still matters.
Growth
Mixed recovery, not clean acceleration.
Wage and services inflation support GBP, while activity still caps conviction.
Inflation
Wage-linked inflation supports BoJ risk.
Jobs
Tight labour supports normalization.
Growth
Patchy, but the external balance is improving.
BoJ normalization plus carry unwind risk gives JPY the strongest asymmetric setup.
Dollar strength needs yield confirmation. Avoid chasing DXY without the rates leg.
Gold is most sensitive when USD and real yields move together.
Equity tone improves when yields soften and growth does not crack.
Liquidity and risk appetite matter more than crypto-only narratives on macro days.
Best risk-on pulse: AUD upside versus JPY only works while carry unwind stays contained.
Euro weakness versus JPY is the cleanest expression of weak Europe plus BoJ normalization.
NZD remains vulnerable if US data keeps yields supported.
Oil support and defensive CHF demand are fighting each other.