Cut / hold / hike probabilities for the next decision of the 8 major central banks — updated automatically from official institutional data.
Most hawkish
BoJ · +50 bps (12M)
Most dovish
RBNZ · -75 bps (12M)
Most recent move
RBNZ · +25 bps · 09 Jul 2026
Next meeting
Fed · 29 Jul 2026
USD (Fed)
Fed · Hold · 3.50–3.75%
JPY (BoJ)
BoJ · Hold · 1.00%
Policy rates, inflation, exchange rates, and bond yields update automatically from official institutional sources. The cut / hold / hike probabilities are produced by Metavulus AI Models — transparent, backtested, and calibrated. They are estimates, not guarantees, and never a trading signal.
Federal Reserve
3.50–3.75%
As of 21 Jul
Medium confidence · Input quality 81/100 (Strong)
Top drivers
Bank of England
3.75%
As of 20 Jul
Medium confidence · Input quality 56/100 (Solid)
Top drivers
Bank of Japan
1.00%
As of 21 Jul
High confidence · Input quality 79/100 (Strong)
Top drivers
Reserve Bank of Australia
4.35%
As of 16 Jul
Medium confidence · Input quality 59/100 (Solid)
Top drivers
Bank of Canada
2.25%
As of 20 Jul
Medium confidence · Input quality 78/100 (Strong)
Top drivers
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
2.50%
As of 17 Jul
Medium confidence · Input quality 62/100 (Solid)
Top drivers
European Central Bank
2.25%
As of 21 Jul
Medium confidence · Input quality 84/100 (Strong)
Top drivers
Swiss National Bank
0.00%
As of 21 Jul
Medium confidence · Input quality 66/100 (Solid)
Top drivers
This desk estimates cut / hold / hike probabilities for the next scheduled decision of the 8 major central banks. Metavulus AI Models combine live policy rates, inflation versus each bank's target, currency pressure, government bond yields (the market's own priced path), and live market expectations into one calibrated read — with every input shown so you can audit it.
Rate expectations move currencies, gold, indices, and bond yields. Knowing whether the next decision is priced as a cut, hold, or hike — and which inputs drive that read — is core macro context before the chart opens.
Use this as macro context, not a standalone signal. Check the drivers: a probability backed by fresh inflation data, a clear yield gap, and live market expectations deserves more attention than one running on policy momentum alone. Model accuracy is backtested on a decade of decisions and published per bank.
Policy rates, inflation, exchange rates, and yields are sourced from official institutions; meeting dates from each central bank. Probabilities are calibrated estimates by Metavulus AI Models — not financial advice and not a trading signal.
Educational market context only — not financial advice, a recommendation, or a trade signal. A bias, read, or confidence score still needs your own price confirmation, invalidation, and risk limits. Analysis can be wrong.
Source: Policy rates, inflation, exchange rates, and bond yields from official institutional sources; meeting dates from each central bank's official calendar. Probabilities by Metavulus AI Models — calibrated estimates, not market quotes.