Metavulus AI Rate Forecast

Key terms

Policy rate

The headline interest rate a central bank sets to steer the economy.

Hawkish / Dovish

Hawkish = leaning toward higher rates (tightening). Dovish = leaning toward lower rates (easing).

bps (basis points)

1 bps = 0.01%. A 25 bps move = 0.25%.

12M trajectory

How much the policy rate has changed over the trailing 12 months, in bps.

Market-implied probability

Odds of a decision derived from OIS/futures pricing — a licensed market-data product, not shown here.

Prediction-market signal

Crowd odds from event markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket. Useful as a signal, but not the same as OIS/futures pricing.

Policy rates and dates are sourced from the BIS and each central bank. The AI forecast is a proprietary Metavulus model, not CME FedWatch, not market-implied pricing, not financial advice, and not a trading signal.

Source: Policy rates: Bank for International Settlements (BIS) WS_CBPOL. Meeting dates: each central bank's official calendar. Forecast lean: Metavulus AI Forecast v1 (not CME FedWatch or market-implied pricing).