DOMINANT THEME - Risk-on de-escalation, macro-binary USD. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension and open Hormuz headlines improve risk appetite, but inspection access, nuclear-material removal funding, Hormuz fees/mines and Graham's Lebanon caveat keep tail risk alive. Today trade ideas are driven by US GDP/PCE: beats favour sell XXX/USD, while below-expected and below-prior weakness favours buy XXX/USD.
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