CORE REGIME — NVIDIA's bigger-than-expected beat lifted a narrow tape while the US goods-trade deficit blew out on AI-hardware imports, leaving Fed Hold pricing unchanged at 64.64% into Chair Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole keynote. ECB Hike conviction jumped 3.14pp to 92.96% on a hot HICP preview and RBA Hike odds crossed above Hold for the first time this cycle (+9.32pp to 53.22%), leaving AUD with the strongest complete score in the set. Oil rose 1.6% overnight as US-Iran rhetoric hardened, putting the institution stack's multi-day de-escalation base case in tension with the tape; a verified physical disruption, not rhetoric, remains the trigger that would flip Oil, Gold and selective risk sentiment.
What this issue covers
This preview gives the headline research context without exposing the complete member report. The full issue includes deeper market structure, macro drivers, positioning read, scenario planning, invalidation context, and risk calendar notes.
Referenced source set: