Dominant Theme - Strong US ISM and construction data rebuilt USD and ES/NQ growth support, while elevated ISM prices, oil, and central-bank supply-shock warnings kept yields as the pressure valve. US-Iran/Hormuz headlines turned more fragile as blockade, Bab al-Mandab, Lebanon, and shipping-risk narratives returned. ES/NQ stay neutral-to-bullish on AI leadership and crowd-short retail, but worsening COT and oil/yield escalation cap conviction.
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