CORE REGIME — Direct US–Iran retaliation and contested Hormuz access created an inflationary risk-off regime: Oil and tactical USD lead, yields stay high, and Gold cannot rely on haven demand alone. AUD holds the strongest complete score after a consumption-led GDP beat and stronger RBA pricing, although weak capex and a negative chain-price impulse reduce the quality of the headline. NZD’s sharp post-RBNZ decline confirms a dovish relative surprise from a fully priced hike; NQ remains the weakest cross-asset stack. BoC guidance and verified shipping flows are today’s primary gates.
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