CORE REGIME — Soft US inflation became a growth warning as retail sales and sentiment fell, lifting the September Fed hold probability to 68.93%. ECB, RBNZ and BoJ hike distributions remain strong; the RBA delivered a hawkish hold. Iran/Hormuz risk is unresolved into Monday's ceasefire deadline, leaving a calm-market preference for AUD and GBP against USD/CHF but a nonlinear Oil, USD, Gold, JPY and CHF escalation tail.
What this issue covers
This preview gives the headline research context without exposing the complete member report. The full issue includes deeper market structure, macro drivers, positioning read, scenario planning, invalidation context, and risk calendar notes.