DOMINANT THEME - Hawkish Fed shock plus non-final US-Iran MoU. Fed pricing shifted from prior Hold 80.36% / Hike 19.64% and +4.91 bps into the decision to latest Hold 59.00% / Hike 41.00% and +10.25 bps for 29 July, while Iran still has a 60-day negotiation tail, no immediate sanctions relief, and live Lebanon/Hormuz risk.
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