CORE REGIME - Long-end US Treasury yields reversed higher on Thursday, ending Wednesday's buyback-driven Dollar slide and pulling the Greenback modestly firmer (DXY +0.1%) even as Philly Fed and jobless claims both beat -- but Fed Scenario Distribution held flat (0.00pp), so USD stays scored Neutral rather than a confirmed bullish reversal until either a verified US-Iran escalation or an actual Fed repricing off the firm data shows up. Walmart's weak guidance dragged the Dow and Russell into a broadly lower equity close, while GBP was the standout G10 gainer on back-to-back confidence-data beats. AUD's employment print missed badly and NZD's trade balance blew out, but positioning and contrarian retail keep both scores from turning cleanly bearish. Iran talks are now frozen for several weeks and unconfirmed Houthi-Saudi escalation claims lifted Oil for a fourth straight session, keeping the geopolitical risk premium alive into the weekend.
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