CORE REGIME — Sticky US inflation and resilient activity lifted the Dollar and yields, but Fed Hold probability rose to 64.64%. Hot Australian CPI drove a 24.64pp jump in RBA Hike odds and left AUD with the strongest complete score. NVIDIA beat earnings, yet higher yields and hyperscaler funding pressure keep US equities mixed. Hormuz flows continue but access remains contested; physical disruption, not rhetoric, is the trigger that would reverse bearish Oil and selective risk-on positioning.
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