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29 October 2026

FX Daily Research

Fed pause weakens dollar tactically; ECB, US GDP and core PCE ahead

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 1 — Macro Recap + Notable Updates

28–29 October 2026 · all times WIB (UTC+7)

Completed releases: actual vs forecast vs previous

United States (USD)

Federal Funds upper bound · 29 October 01:00 WIB: 4.00% vs 4.00% vs 4.00%. The unchanged upper bound matches expectations; the full target range is 3.75–4.00%. Cook and Hammack preferred a 25bp increase. The statement and 01:30 WIB press conference produced a softer dollar response than the headline decision alone suggests. This is a completed decision, so tonight’s scenarios use GDP and inflation instead. → Neutral USD
Goods Trade Balance · 28 October 19:30 WIB: -134.9B vs -130.4B vs -132.1B. The deficit widened beyond the calendar consensus, a potential drag from net exports. The wrap instead uses -130.0B and -132.07B: these are separate source vintages. Inventory accumulation and import demand complicate the growth interpretation, so the trade result does not by itself show a collapse in domestic spending. → Bearish USD
Preliminary Wholesale Inventories m/m · 28 October 19:30 WIB: 0.6% vs 0.5% vs 0.5%. The inventory increase is above expectations but can mean either deliberate restocking or weaker sell-through. It enters growth arithmetic differently from final sales. The wrap also reports retail inventories excluding autos up 0.4% after 0.0%, without a forecast; neither series supplies an independent directional USD surprise. → Neutral USD
EIA Crude Inventories · 28 October 21:30 WIB: -1.9M vs +0.1M vs -3.1M. The board’s rounded draw contrasts with an expected build. The detailed wrap gives -1.892M against no change and a prior -3.061M. Both versions support a tighter physical balance, while the oil assessment also weighs official diplomacy and shipping conditions. This commodity release does not count as an economy-wide dollar surprise. → Neutral USD

Eurozone (EUR)

German GfK Consumer Climate · 28 October 14:00 WIB: -30.8 vs -30.1 vs -30.6. Confidence weakened instead of improving, which argues for caution on household demand as energy costs stay elevated. This is a LOW-impact print and is not equated with an immediate ECB policy shift. Tonight’s rate statement and press conference carry more weight for whether tighter credit restrains future consumption and investment. → Bearish EUR
German 10Y Auction · 28 October 17:32 WIB: 3.37% / 1.1 bid-to-cover vs — vs 3.58% / 1.2. The auction cleared at a lower yield but also a lower bid-to-cover. Cheaper funding and thinner bidding can coexist; the result is not uncomplicated evidence of haven demand. No consensus is shown. Compare the upcoming Italian auction separately because issuer risk and maturity conditions differ. → Neutral EUR

Australia (AUD)

CPI m/m; y/y · 28 October 07:30 WIB: 0.8%; 4.3% vs 0.7%; 4.2% vs 0.4%; 4.0%. These headline beats were already included in the previous digest and are retained as the origin of the RBA repricing. They are not counted again as new surprises. The monthly trimmed mean was 0.3% versus 0.3% and 0.2%; persistent underlying inflation matters more for the policy path than an isolated fuel increase. → Bullish AUD
Import Prices q/q · 29 October 07:30 WIB: -1.1% vs 1.3% vs 5.7%. The clear miss points to less imported-price pressure in this series, tempering the inflation discussion after the CPI beat. It is a different frequency and basket, so it cannot erase the consumer-inflation result. Export-price actuals are absent from the supplied image; the wrap’s export-price watch item remains unfilled. → Bearish AUD

New Zealand (NZD)

Official Cash Rate · 28 October 08:00 WIB: 2.75% vs 3.00% vs 2.75%. The surprise hold was added to the prior edition after the announcement. It remains central context: a narrowly divided committee preferred to assess earlier tightening while retaining a conditional need for higher rates. This is no longer a pending decision or a fresh second data vote in today’s assessment. → Bearish NZD
ANZ Business Confidence · 29 October 07:00 WIB: 52.5 vs — vs 51.9. Business confidence improved slightly but there is no consensus against which to measure a surprise. The survey supports the case that activity remains resilient without proving households can absorb the full tightening path. Its marginal improvement must be weighed against the RBNZ’s explicit caution about consumption and investment. → Neutral NZD

Canada (CAD)

BoC Overnight Rate · 28 October 20:45 WIB: 2.50% vs 2.50% vs 2.25%. The 25bp increase matched the calendar forecast. The press conference followed at 21:30 WIB. Higher inflation projections and openness to further increases strengthen the qualitative policy backdrop, but an expected hike is different from a new upside surprise. The market now turns to December rather than repeating the completed October meeting. → Neutral CAD

Switzerland (CHF)

UBS Economic Expectations · 28 October 16:00 WIB: -15.3 vs — vs 2.6. The deterioration highlights weaker expectations, but no forecast is supplied and no directional surprise is assigned. Switzerland’s low domestic rate and the franc’s defensive demand can pull in different directions. This sentiment measure does not quantify the size or persistence of any capital inflow. → Neutral CHF

Policy divergence, earnings and the energy premium

Fed pause: the decision and the reaction

The completed FOMC kept its target at 3.75–4.00%, with Cook and Hammack dissenting for a 25bp hike. Growth language moved from solid to strong and inflation remained elevated. At 01:30 WIB, Warsh reiterated the 2% PCE objective, rejected a softer implicit target and said financial conditions could not be described as tight. Yet his assessment that restraint was beginning to work and his refusal to prejudge December fell short of the hawkish reinforcement investors wanted. The wrap records lower short-end yields during the press conference and a subsequent dollar decline: DXY -0.2% at 102.13, EUR/USD +0.2%, GBP/USD +0.1% and USD/JPY -0.1%. The causal chain is a smaller immediate need for additional tightening, less front-end dollar support and a tactical FX correction. An unchanged rate alone did not cause this response; the communication relative to prior expectations mattered. There was no easing commitment. Warsh’s calendar remarks retained eight annual meetings, described a strategy meeting without a rate vote next fall and envisaged six policy-setting meetings in 2028; these procedural plans do not resolve the December decision.

Rates: front-end relief alongside a steeper curve

The Treasury tables separately show 28 October nominal 10Y at 5.05%, up 6bp from 4.99% on 27 October and down 8bp from 5.13% on 21 October. Real 10Y was 2.67%, up 3bp from 2.64% and down 9bp from 2.76% over the same comparisons. The 2Y eased from 4.70% to 4.67%; 30Y rose from 5.30% to 5.37%. That combination explains how front-end relief can coexist with greater long-duration pressure. The wrap’s 5.02% 10Y quote is a separate market snapshot, while December T-notes settled 2.5 ticks lower. Gold’s 0.2% spot rise therefore cannot be attributed to a fall in the official real-yield observation. For equities, the higher nominal long yield raises the discount-rate hurdle despite an easier immediate Fed interpretation. Treasury nominal table; Treasury real table.

Policy expectations: compare the same meeting

The supplied panel puts the 3 November RBA hike at 82.13%, versus 74.41% previously, a 7.72pp increase. BoE 5 November remains 100.00%; ECB 29 October is 11.60% versus 12.76%, down 1.16pp; BoJ 30 October is 8.05% versus 5.18%, up 2.87pp; SNB 10 December is 23.62% versus 19.11%, up 4.51pp. The Australian move reinforces the post-CPI policy divergence. Fed 9 December hike probability is 70.56%, RBNZ 9 December 75.21% and BoC 9 December 44.78%. Their previous main panels referred to 28 October at 18.56%, 96.91% and 74.60% respectively. Different meetings are non-comparable, so no daily probability change is claimed for those three. The BoC current rate now reads 2.500%, reflecting its completed hike; Fed uses the 3.875% midpoint, while the calendar shows the upper bound. This avoids treating a rate convention or a rolled meeting as a new market shock.

Equity breadth and the earnings split

The detailed cash recap reports rounded SPX 7,744 (+0.28%), NDX 29,813 (+0.55%), DJI 52,480 (+0.19%) and RUT 2,831 (+0.43%). The Nasdaq Composite’s separate +0.3% snapshot describes another index. Equal-weight S&P 500 was flat: Technology, Energy and Financials led, while Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples fell. Oracle’s long-term guidance and plans to limit capital raises reduced AI-financing concerns, supporting neo-cloud names. After hours, Microsoft beat EPS expectations at USD4.92 versus 4.72, revenue at USD92.3bn versus 90.6bn, operating income at USD45.9bn versus 44.1bn, net income at USD36.6bn versus 35.1bn and cloud revenue at USD63.9bn versus 61.62bn. Alphabet missed EPS at USD2.12 versus 3.03, revenue at USD127.6bn versus 127.91bn and operating income at USD40.58bn versus 43.16bn. Cloud beat at USD30.71bn versus 29.1bn, but Services USD96.30bn and Search USD63.35bn missed USD98.4bn and 64.85bn. Fortinet and ServiceNow also weighed on software sentiment. Later ES was flat and NQ -0.2%; these snapshots are not verified futures settlements. Revenue quality and funding demand, rather than the index close alone, determine whether technology relief persists.

Oil: escalation premium versus contested diplomacy

December WTI rose 2.0% and January Brent 0.3% in the wrap; outright prices and settlement designations are absent. Trump confirmed talks through mediators but said success was uncertain, while Araghchi continued to give diplomacy a chance and discussed implementation of a seven-day plan in less than a week. Reuters sources described a new Qatari draft, denied by a senior Iranian official. Axios described pressure for nuclear concessions, WSJ reported Vance’s outreach and Fox cited preparations giving the military options. These accounts describe competing paths rather than a completed strike decision. CENTCOM denied claims of mine impacts and said recognised primary Hormuz routes were cleared. Fars’ claim of damage to the 550,000bpd Ras Tanura main unit remains unconfirmed lost production. UKMTO’s suspicious Gulf of Aden activity concerns shipping risk. EIA’s draw and SPR reduction of 0.1M to 282.6M support a tighter immediate balance. Expected Gulf and Chinese diesel exports and a possible Upper Zakum route in early 2027 are prospective offsets. The White House’s 65 billion-barrel Venezuela statement has no delivery schedule or definition in the notes. The oil view weighs the mixed official diplomacy over the last five trading days and the dated shipping incident, while the inventory draw provides physical context.

Canada and the UK: higher rates versus growth costs

The BoC’s expected 25bp hike to 2.50% came with a warning that further increases may be necessary, approached carefully. Its 2027 inflation forecast rose to 3%, one percentage point above July, with a return to 2% only in mid-2028. Macklem described a deteriorating inflation outlook alongside modestly better growth and increased energy investment. Limited progress in US trade talks qualifies the CAD benefit. The UK Budget instead mixes weaker growth with stronger inflation: OBR expects 2027 GDP +1.0% after 2026 +1.25%, and 2027 CPI 3.4% versus March’s 2.0%. Headroom GBP15bn meets expectations but is below March’s GBP23.6bn; GBP22bn is projected by 2030/31. Gilt issuance GBP250.6bn exceeds GBP249.6bn expected and April’s GBP246.2bn, although long-dated auction supply falls to GBP2.3bn from GBP7.4bn over five auctions. The 3 percentage-point bank surcharge starts in January for 15 months. Higher yields can therefore reflect fiscal compensation rather than a simple improvement in sterling carry.

Fiscal commitments and external-policy uncertainty

Before measures, UK borrowing averages GBP11bn a year above the March forecast; a persistent energy shock could raise 2027/28 borrowing GBP17bn above the central case. Housing support includes GBP1.5bn for social and affordable housing and GBP4.7bn of government lending for equity loans, plus a first-time buyer ISA replacing the Lifetime ISA. Italy’s proposed EUR26bn package draws about EUR5bn from banks and insurers and EUR700mn each from energy and gaming. These measures affect sector earnings and issuance expectations through different channels. Trump’s direction to negotiate national-security risks from imported robotics and industrial machinery adds trade-policy uncertainty. On Russia–Ukraine, Zelensky described possible talks as early as 10 November; the Kremlin said European representatives would not participate. The supplied notes give no concluded agreement or quantified market reaction to these developments. Their relevance is the possibility of altered funding, input costs and risk premiums as investors digest the Fed and energy outlook.

Today: inflation, growth and the ECB still ahead

The calendar begins with Japan consumer confidence at 12:00 WIB, forecast 35.1 versus 35.4, then Italian unemployment at 16:00 WIB, 6.2% versus 6.2%. UK M4, mortgage approvals and net lending arrive at 16:30 WIB: 0.3% versus 0.4%, 54K versus 55K and 6.2B versus 6.9B. The Italian 10Y auction is tentative, previous 4.58% and 1.6 bid-to-cover. At 19:30 WIB, US advance GDP is forecast 3.2% versus 2.2%, monthly core PCE 0.3% versus 0.2%, GDP prices 3.2% versus 6.1%, claims 198K versus 194K, personal income 0.3% versus 0.2% and spending 0.6% versus 0.9%. Gravelle speaks at 19:50 WIB. ECB refinancing rate at 20:15 WIB is expected 2.65% versus 2.65%, with a statement then the 20:45 WIB press conference; the wrap’s 2.50% refers to the deposit rate. Gas storage at 21:30 WIB is 75B versus 77B and Vincent speaks at 22:30 WIB. Cool inflation with resilient growth favours the risk-on branch; hot inflation with higher yields favours risk-off. Mixed results activate neither scenario. The wrap also flags Australian export prices and Japanese supply, but supplies no additional actual or exact auction time.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 2 — FX, Commodities & US Equity

26–28 October 2026 · 11 asset cards

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Principal driver — a hold that lacked the expected hawkish reinforcement. The Fed retained 3.75–4.00% and two members wanted a 25bp hike, but Warsh’s refusal to prejudge December and his assessment that restraint was working led investors to reduce immediate rate support. DXY fell 0.2% to 102.13 after the press conference; the wrap reports lower short yields. This is the outcome of the meeting that the 28 October bank previews were still anticipating. Avoiding forward guidance is not a promise of easing. Continued front-end declines and weaker capital inflows would prolong the tactical correction; hot inflation and renewed demand for US assets could reverse it.

Official 10Y nominal rose 6bp to 5.05% while 2Y eased to 4.67%, distinguishing curve steepening from a broad bond rally. The LOW-impact goods deficit widened to -134.9B and inventories rose 0.6%; they do not establish the direction of final demand. At 19:30 WIB, GDP 3.2%, core PCE 0.3% and claims 198K will test whether the Fed interpretation survives. A hot inflation print and firm growth could restore rate support; cool inflation with resilient growth could extend dollar selling. Mixed data require waiting for yields and FX to agree.

Institution Commentaries

Rate support was the prevailing bullish mechanism before the meeting. ING (28 October 2026) expected monetary credibility and receding AI-financing fears to keep USD supported, with a move through 102.50 opening 103.00. KBC (28 October 2026) connects the earlier advance to the September hike and euro fiscal risks. Danske Bank (28 October 2026) expected “two more hikes, in December and March”. These are dated expectations, not descriptions of the completed press conference; the softer reaction challenges their immediate timing even while the inflation problem remains.

Asymmetry and capital flows qualify that argument. MUFG (28 October 2026) warned that “any surprise dovish elements would likely have a bigger impact weakening the dollar”; expected hawkishness was already well understood. Nomura (27 October 2026) had stepped back from dollar longs on tech weakness and slower portfolio inflows, while Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026) retained a mild bearish view expressed selectively. The latest Microsoft beat and Alphabet miss leave that financing debate unresolved. A technology recovery supports USD only if it sustains foreign demand rather than merely producing a short-covering bounce.

Activity resilience and inflation persistence. Crédit Agricole CIB (28 October 2026) Its GDP and PCE preview links resilient investment to inflation persistence, while the risk index warns of moderating appetite. Westpac (28 October 2026) Its consumer-confidence and equipment-order discussion distinguishes resilient labour perceptions from cost-of-living pressure. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) Its dated trade, equipment and event accounts describe demand and the policy calendar without one common dollar forecast. Natixis (28 October 2026) Its earlier durable-orders and confidence recaps describe realised activity without a new FX recommendation. QCAM (27 October 2026) Its policy compass expected a hold while projecting resilient growth and sticky inflation.

Fiscal constraints and the later policy path. UniCredit (28 October 2026) Its expected October pause followed by December tightening separates a skipped meeting from an easing cycle. BNP Paribas (26 October 2026) Its US outlook stresses resilient but uneven growth and persistent inflation; this is macro support rather than an explicit spot call. ANZ (28 October 2026) Its midterm analysis highlights gridlock and persistent deficits as potential Treasury-market constraints.

Capital allocation and cross-market qualifications. SEB (28 October 2026) Its New Zealand analysis allows a dollar-based relief rally while questioning the scale of future RBNZ tightening. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities (26 October 2026) Its BoJ preview provides a relative-rate comparison while concentrating on Japanese normalisation. Bank Syz (27 October 2026) Its Microsoft staffing account concerns capital allocation rather than an outright currency recommendation. Standard Chartered (27 October 2026) Its equity-yield framework warns that inflation-driven yield rises need not support risk appetite.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

Fed 09/12/2026: hike 70.56%, hold 29.44%, cut 0.00%. Prior 28/10/2026: hike 18.56%, hold 81.44%, cut 0.00%. Different meeting horizons: non-comparable; no daily pp change assigned. Current rate 3.875%; displayed expected move 17.91bp.

Bias & short summary: Bearish tactically after the Fed: the expected hold lacked fresh hawkish reinforcement, front-end yields declined and DXY fell 0.2% to 102.13. This weakens immediate dollar rate support without implying an easing commitment. Tonight’s inflation and growth releases can extend the correction or restore the rate advantage. The combined bias in Section 3 remains Bullish with low conviction because retail is 61.0% short; that positioning support does not reverse the near-term research view. Coverage spans eighteen providers: three bullish, two bearish and thirteen neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Principal driver — the cost of fighting inflation when sovereign financing is strained. EUR/USD rose 0.2% as the dollar softened after the Fed, but German GfK weakened to -30.8 versus -30.1 expected. The German 10Y auction cleared at 3.37% with 1.1 bid-to-cover, below the prior 3.58% and 1.2. Lower yield therefore coexists with thinner bidding. The tension is whether energy inflation requires more tightening while credit demand and fiscal confidence are weakening; a higher nominal yield caused by sovereign risk can hurt the currency rather than support it.

At 20:15 WIB the refinancing-rate forecast is 2.65%, unchanged; the 2.50% hold in the wrap refers to the deposit facility. Lagarde’s 20:45 WIB press conference matters for December guidance and spread management. Italian unemployment at 16:00 WIB is forecast 6.2%, while the tentative Italian auction has a prior 4.58% yield and 1.6 cover. A convincing anti-inflation message with contained spreads could lift EUR; hawkish words accompanied by a sovereign sell-off would be less supportive. US GDP/core PCE at 19:30 WIB can move the dollar leg before the ECB speaks.

Institution Commentaries

Credit weakness and relative tightening limits. ING (28 October 2026) sees tighter lending and falling corporate loan demand, stating that reasons for EUR/USD to bounce are “conspicuous by their absence”. It identifies 1.1065/1110 support and 1.0880 below. Danske Bank (28 October 2026) still expects a December hike but thinks the market overprices the later ECB path; KBC (28 October 2026) links pressure to French fiscal risk. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) places support near 1.1100 and 1.1000 in its pre-Fed technical account. These levels describe the earlier research map and require fresh confirmation after the dollar reversal.

The inflation case has not disappeared. UniCredit (27 October 2026) expects a hold and says “a rate hike in December appears very likely”, while emphasising sovereign tensions. MUFG (27 October 2026) retains a moderate tightening outlook with less conviction because financial conditions have tightened. Crédit Agricole CIB (28 October 2026) expects December followed by another move in Q127, whereas BNP Paribas (26 October 2026) has a lower terminal path. Their policy forecasts differ from an outright euro recommendation. Danske Bank (28 October 2026) judges credit tightening modest historically; Natixis (28 October 2026) highlights collapsing mortgage demand. That disagreement makes the press conference’s treatment of credit and spreads more useful than an unchanged rate by itself.

Data, flows and scenario evidence. Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026), Westpac (26 October 2026), Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities (26 October 2026), QCAM (27 October 2026). The additional dated accounts distinguish French credit and fiscal tension from the wider growth outlook. Westpac’s activity and policy calendar, the dealer cross-market accounts and the Japanese rates comparison retain different horizons. Their contribution is the mechanism through which higher financing costs can constrain lending while resilient activity still permits a later hike; they are not additional euro sell recommendations.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

ECB 29/10/2026: hike 11.60%, hold 88.40%, cut 0.00%. Prior same meeting 29/10/2026: hike 12.76%, hold 87.24%, cut 0.00%. Hike change -1.16pp. Current rate 2.500%; displayed expected move 2.40bp.

Bias & short summary: Bearish with low conviction. The euro benefits tactically from USD softness, but institutional opinion is mostly neutral with several bearish relative-rate and fiscal views. The 77.6% retail-long crowd leans against the currency, while funds are little changed. A hawkish ECB with contained sovereign spreads could invalidate the negative lean; a hold alone is insufficient to do so. Coverage spans thirteen providers: zero bullish, four bearish and nine neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Principal driver — fiscal pressure rather than a fresh rate surprise. GBP/USD gained 0.1% after the Fed, but the Budget combines 2027 growth of 1.0% with CPI of 3.4%, weaker growth and more inflation than the earlier outlook. Headroom of GBP15bn matches expectations while issuance of GBP250.6bn exceeds the GBP249.6bn consensus. Reduced long-dated auction supply offsets part of the pressure at that maturity. Sterling can benefit from policy credibility, but yields rising to compensate for borrowing risk would challenge that support.

The 5 November BoE hike remains fully priced, so unchanged probability supplies no additional daily policy impulse. At 16:30 WIB, M4 is forecast 0.3%, approvals 54K and net lending 6.2B, all below their previous readings. These are useful checks on transmission into household credit after the Budget. At 19:30 WIB, a cool US inflation print with resilient GDP could support the GBP/NZD risk-on scenario, but a weak UK credit package or renewed gilt selling would undermine the sterling leg even if the global background improves.

Institution Commentaries

Credibility can release a fiscal premium. ING (28 October 2026) estimated a 20bp gilt premium and saw EUR/GBP potentially reaching 0.8315 if the Budget avoided giveaways that hurt gilts. KBC (28 October 2026) says “Sterling remains better bid” as the BoE prepares to tighten. Their argument is improved confidence in financing, rather than simply buying the highest yield. MUFG (28 October 2026) expected a credible Budget to provide a modest lift; that preview now has to be assessed against the completed borrowing and growth numbers.

Different horizons preserve two-way risk. Danske Bank (28 October 2026) describes EUR/GBP as “Tactically neutral and strategically bullish”, a less favourable longer-horizon sterling view. Natixis (27 October 2026) expects a November hike and another in February, but its discussion of weaker hiring limits the growth interpretation. SEB (26 October 2026) warned that an unexpectedly expansionary Budget could raise gilt yields and lower sterling. The completed package’s reduced headroom and higher issuance keep that distinction between helpful rates and a borrowing premium relevant.

Data, flows and scenario evidence. Crédit Agricole CIB (28 October 2026), Westpac (26 October 2026), Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026), BNP Paribas (26 October 2026), Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026), UniCredit (26 October 2026). The remaining dated coverage links household demand, fiscal room and the international rate backdrop. Westpac’s mixed UK activity, BNP Paribas’s macro projections and the broader dealer accounts qualify an outright sterling call. Crédit Agricole’s risk index and UniCredit’s guidance scenarios are conditional; a global risk recovery and a credible UK funding programme must be evaluated separately.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

BoE 05/11/2026: hike 100.00%, hold 0.00%, cut 0.00%. Prior same meeting 05/11/2026: hike 100.00%, hold 0.00%, cut 0.00%. Hike change +0.00pp. Current rate 3.750%; displayed expected move 25.68bp.

Bias & short summary: Bullish with low conviction, led by the improvement in leveraged-fund exposure rather than another BoE repricing. Retail is near balanced and research remains divided across horizons. Sterling’s post-Fed rise is supportive evidence, but the Budget’s growth-inflation mix and tonight’s US releases make price and gilt confirmation essential before the risk-on cross activates. Coverage spans twelve providers: three bullish, one bearish and eight neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Principal driver — inflation persistence strengthens the relative policy path. RBA November hike probability climbed to 82.13%, up 7.72pp from the prior supplied panel. The previous CPI beats remain the origin of that adjustment, while today’s -1.1% import-price print versus 1.3% expected tempers imported inflation. These different baskets can move in opposite directions. The useful distinction is that the RBA appears ready to act while the RBNZ demonstrated reluctance, supporting AUD/NZD if that rate differential remains credible.

The 79.4% retail-short currency crowd adds support, but global technology funding and energy costs remain meaningful risks. US GDP/core PCE at 19:30 WIB can overwhelm domestic policy on the dollar leg. That favours expressing the relative view in AUD/NZD and EUR/AUD, with the two AUD positions treated as correlated. A reversal in RBA expectations or sustained recovery in New Zealand front-end rates would challenge the thesis. Australian export-price actuals are absent, and no additional beat is inferred from the watch list.

Institution Commentaries

Inflation transmission, not only a headline beat. Natixis (28 October 2026) records September CPI at 0.83% m/m and 4.34% y/y, with energy adding 32bp and travel 43bp to monthly growth. It says the energy shock “has started to pass through to the broader CPI basket” and expects a November hike while later decisions remain data-dependent. Its quarterly trimmed mean of 3.66% y/y versus 3.64% is a separate series from the board’s monthly measure. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) describes an earlier 90.1% futures-implied hike probability and 0.7056 resistance; that snapshot differs from today’s supplied probability panel.

The cross has a clearer policy comparison. ING (28 October 2026) reversed its AUD/NZD preference after the RBNZ hold and says “We see a break above 1.260 as imminent.” SEB (28 October 2026) looks for buyers near 1.248, arguing that New Zealand tightening is overstretched relative to economic capacity. Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026) remains supportive on terms of trade but ranks AUD below defensive currencies because of its AI exposure. These arguments support a relative cross while preserving the risk that global liquidation can hurt AUD even when domestic inflation is strong.

Data, flows and scenario evidence. KBC (26 October 2026), Crédit Agricole CIB (26 October 2026), Westpac (26 October 2026), Standard Chartered (27 October 2026), Danske Bank (28 October 2026). The wider Australian coverage traces communication, inflation and flows. Westpac and KBC explain how supply-chain energy costs enter the RBA debate; Crédit Agricole’s dated positioning and month-end models distinguish investor buying from potential rebalancing headwinds. Standard Chartered’s equity-yield framework warns that higher yields caused by inflation do not necessarily improve risk appetite. The remaining desk and cross-market accounts describe relative moves rather than adding an unconditional AUD recommendation.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

RBA 03/11/2026: hike 82.13%, hold 17.87%, cut 0.00%. Prior same meeting 03/11/2026: hike 74.41%, hold 25.59%, cut 0.00%. Hike change +7.72pp. Current rate 4.600%; displayed expected move 20.96bp.

Bias & short summary: Bullish with medium conviction. The same-meeting RBA repricing and the heavily short retail crowd support the direction; fund changes are small. Several institutions favour AUD, especially against NZD, while a larger neutral group contributes policy, flow and scenario context. The import-price miss and global funding sensitivity argue for confirming the cross levels instead of treating the Australian inflation story as unconditional upside. Coverage spans ten providers: four bullish, zero bearish and six neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Principal driver — the committee’s reluctance weakens the expected rate cushion. The 4-3 RBNZ hold at 2.75% disappointed a 3.00% consensus. The source reports a rapid currency decline and lower two-year swaps; the committee still sees further tightening as likely, but conditional on the economy. With households and investment weak, that condition makes the later hiking path vulnerable. This is the completed decision already added to yesterday’s digest, rather than another surprise today. The new December panel cannot be compared directly with yesterday’s October probability.

ANZ confidence improved to 52.5 from 51.9 without a forecast, so it demonstrates some resilience but supplies no measured upside surprise. Retail is now 83.6% long and funds reduced exposure by 5.4pp, adding negative positioning. The US 19:30 WIB package is decisive for the dollar leg: softer inflation can provoke a sharp NZD/USD relief rally, whereas hot inflation and rising US yields favour the risk-off short. AUD/NZD more directly tests whether RBA resolve continues to exceed RBNZ resolve.

Institution Commentaries

Policy-path vulnerability and cross underperformance. ING (28 October 2026) says “We have completely lost that conviction” in earlier NZD outperformance, retaining a 0.570 year-end target but moving the risk to the downside. It sees an overlarge immediate USD sell-off in fair-value terms, while distrustful of a durable rally without idiosyncratic dollar weakness. MUFG (28 October 2026) states “NZD will continue to underperform.” SEB (28 October 2026) expects only 50bp of tightening through Q1 2027 versus more than 100bp priced over the following year, and favours AUD/NZD dip buyers near 1.248. Their common mechanism is an overextended future hiking path, not a claim that no further hike can occur.

The hold is dovish, the outlook still conditional. Danske Bank (28 October 2026) records the split over timing despite agreement on inflation risks and a 4.4% Q4 inflation projection. KBC (28 October 2026) describes front-end yields falling up to 10bp and longer yields around 3bp, with 0.5580/65 support. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) identifies 0.5637 as a broken moving-average reference and 0.5566 as the next downside area. Their differing historical December probabilities are not today’s live panel. QCAM (27 October 2026) is a pre-decision hike forecast, useful for explaining the surprise but superseded as an outcome.

Data, flows and scenario evidence. Crédit Agricole CIB (26 October 2026), Westpac (28 October 2026), Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026), Standard Chartered (27 October 2026), Natixis (28 October 2026). The additional coverage preserves differences between fund flows, the election calendar and global risk conditions. Crédit Agricole describes earlier buying within a still-short broader positioning picture; Westpac discusses the election, while the dealer and Standard Chartered accounts explain cross-market sensitivity. These are neutral currency observations. They do not erase the completed hold, and they do not prove that a broad risk recovery would make NZD outperform AUD.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

RBNZ 09/12/2026: hike 75.21%, hold 24.79%, cut 0.00%. Prior 28/10/2026: hike 96.91%, hold 3.09%, cut 0.00%. Different meeting horizons: non-comparable; no daily pp change assigned. Current rate 2.750%; displayed expected move 19.13bp.

Bias & short summary: Bearish with medium conviction. Funds reduced exposure and the retail crowd became heavily long, reinforcing a negative final lean. Explicit bearish research is meaningful but coexists with extensive neutral policy and descriptive coverage. December tightening remains possible, and a softer US inflation print can squeeze NZD/USD shorts; the relative weakness is clearest against AUD while its own rate expectations stay firm. Coverage spans twelve providers: zero bullish, four bearish and eight neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Principal driver — inflation insurance meets a weak domestic economy. The BoC raised rates 25bp to 2.50% as expected, allowing further increases while proceeding carefully. Its 2027 inflation projection is now 3%, with a return to 2% in mid-2028. Macklem sees growth modestly improved and energy investment rising, but limited progress in US trade talks remains a constraint. The hike confirms policy concern; it does not prove that households or employment can sustain the entire market-implied tightening path.

The new 9 December probability is 44.78% for a hike, while yesterday’s 74.60% described the completed October meeting. No daily change is inferred across those dates. Oil’s positive snapshot can help the terms of trade, yet an energy shock also damages domestic purchasing power and global demand. Gravelle at 19:50 WIB and Vincent at 22:30 WIB may clarify the careful-hiking language. The US GDP/core PCE package at 19:30 WIB remains the more immediate driver for USD/CAD; retail and weekly fund changes currently offer little directional reinforcement.

Institution Commentaries

Limited currency reward for expected tightening. MUFG (28 October 2026) says “we don’t see much scope for USD/CAD to move lower on the back of a hike today”, citing weak employment, trade risks and an already ambitious future curve. ING (28 October 2026) expected a hold, a forecast now disproved, but its warning that “we don’t see USD/CAD trading sustainably below 1.40” concerns the later domestic outlook rather than the immediate decision. It identifies 1.420 as a rebound risk. These dated calls explain why a delivered hike may not be enough for sustained CAD appreciation.

Relative policy support is still present. Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026) is constructive as markets take tightening signals seriously. Danske Bank (28 October 2026) expected inflation insurance despite a weakening economy; QCAM (27 October 2026) separates energy-led headline pressure from contained core inflation. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) describes diversification through the UAE trade agreement and Scotiabank (26 October 2026) discusses prospective provincial energy investment. These are longer-run channels with execution risks, rather than evidence that the latest hike has already produced a stronger investment cycle.

Data, flows and scenario evidence. Crédit Agricole CIB (28 October 2026), Westpac (26 October 2026), Standard Chartered (27 October 2026). The wider dated coverage supplies a policy calendar and a conditional global-risk framework. Westpac highlights the earlier uncertainty over the decision, Standard Chartered explains how equities and yields interact for commodity currencies, and Crédit Agricole’s risk account distinguishes an AI bounce from a general increase in risk appetite. These sources broaden the denominator without turning an expected hike or an oil rally into an additional outright CAD call.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

BoC 09/12/2026: hike 44.78%, hold 55.22%, cut 0.00%. Prior 28/10/2026: hike 74.60%, hold 25.40%, cut 0.00%. Different meeting horizons: non-comparable; no daily pp change assigned. Current rate 2.500%; displayed expected move 11.13bp.

Bias & short summary: Neutral. The completed hike supports the qualitative policy backdrop, but the current and prior probability panels concern different meetings. Research is divided, funds’ weekly change is small and retail is near balanced. A stronger CAD case needs evidence that further tightening is credible without worsening employment and trade weakness; today’s US data and BoC speakers can clarify that balance. Coverage spans ten providers: one bullish, two bearish and seven neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

USD/JPY fell 0.1% after the Fed as the earlier dollar rise reversed. The latest BoJ 30 October hike probability is 8.05%, up 2.87pp, with a 1.250% current rate. This leaves an immediate hold as the dominant expectation while preserving debate over later normalisation. Official US 2Y yield eased while 10Y rose, so the relative-rate backdrop differs by maturity. A weaker dollar front end can help JPY, but sustained yen gains require Japanese policy credibility and capital-flow confirmation.

Today’s 12:00 WIB household confidence is forecast 35.1 versus 35.4. It has no JPY trade attached under the standing exclusions, but helps assess consumption before tomorrow’s decision. The wrap also flags Japanese supply without an exact auction time. There is no broad defensive shock confirmed by the supplied equity and yield observations. The bullish conclusion therefore rests on positioning and the specific policy debate, not an automatic assumption that every geopolitical headline generates haven demand.

Institution Commentaries

Strategic normalisation and defensive demand. Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026) “Remains positive on JPY”, while Danske Bank (28 October 2026) seeks “strategic selling opportunities” in USD/JPY. Their shared mechanism combines future Japanese tightening with uncertainty over US assets. A near-term hold and later rate normalisation are compatible, but the currency still needs capital-flow confirmation rather than relying on the policy forecast alone.

Timing and government pressure complicate the path. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities (26 October 2026) expects a 1.25% hold with an 8-1 vote, followed by December and April hikes, emphasising the shift toward protecting an achieved inflation target. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) observes intervention sensitivity and political pressure for patience. QCAM (27 October 2026) expects a hold with modest growth, while BNP Paribas (26 October 2026) projects a longer normalisation process. These are distinct policy horizons, not a unanimous currency call; the November-only SEB printed issue is excluded from the three-day voting window.

Data, flows and scenario evidence. Crédit Agricole CIB (26 October 2026), MUFG (27 October 2026), Westpac (26 October 2026), UniCredit (26 October 2026), Standard Chartered (27 October 2026), Nomura (27 October 2026). The wider cross-market research retains disagreement over the dollar, policy guidance and funding conditions. MUFG’s currency comparisons, UniCredit’s central-bank scenarios and Standard Chartered’s risk framework are conditional observations rather than fresh yen recommendations. Westpac’s calendar keeps consumption and inflation in view, while Nomura’s US technology analysis explains why a renewed foreign-flow slowdown could matter for the dollar-yen relationship.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

BoJ 30/10/2026: hike 8.05%, hold 91.95%, cut 0.00%. Prior same meeting 30/10/2026: hike 5.18%, hold 94.82%, cut 0.00%. Hike change +2.87pp. Current rate 1.250%; displayed expected move 1.46bp.

Bias & short summary: Bullish with medium conviction. Funds improved by 3.0pp and retail is 64.9% short, while institutions remain divided on timing and currency direction. The post-Fed yen recovery supports the near-term picture but is small. A patient BoJ or renewed US rate support can challenge it; JPY remains outside the trade-card selection. Coverage spans twelve providers: two bullish, two bearish and eight neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

UBS expectations fell to -15.3 from 2.6, but no consensus was supplied. The SNB 10 December hike probability is 23.62%, up 4.51pp, with a current rate of 0.000%. This is a modest change alongside a predominantly hold distribution. A weak domestic expectations survey and a defensive external role need not give the same currency direction; European sovereign stress can attract demand while the SNB remains sensitive to excessive franc strength.

The Fed reaction lowered immediate dollar support without a broad equity sell-off. Today’s ECB statement at 20:15 WIB and press conference at 20:45 WIB can alter European spread risk and franc demand, while the US 19:30 WIB data affect the dollar leg. Retail is near balanced at 51.6% long and weekly fund change is small. CHF remains excluded from trade cards, so these events provide portfolio context rather than a standalone franc setup.

Institution Commentaries

Defensive demand with conditional cross-market support. Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026) says it “Continues to favour CHF as a defensive currency”. Standard Chartered (27 October 2026) finds that defensive currencies tend to benefit when equities and yields fall together, while noting the relationships have been “less reliable since the beginning of 2025”. That qualification matters when higher yields reflect inflation or fiscal risk rather than growth confidence. A conditional historical relationship is different from a fresh outright franc recommendation.

Conditional cross-market evidence remains neutral. UniCredit (26 October 2026) sees possible franc support if major central banks fail to give convincing guidance; this is conditional, rather than an outright recommendation. Standard Chartered (27 October 2026) finds defensive currencies tend to outperform when equities and yields both fall but warns those relationships have weakened recently. Crédit Agricole CIB (28 October 2026) describes moderating risk appetite despite an AI bounce. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) records earlier cross levels and option effects; such observations establish context without adding another directional recommendation.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

SNB 10/12/2026: hike 23.62%, hold 76.38%, cut 0.00%. Prior same meeting 10/12/2026: hike 19.11%, hold 80.89%, cut 0.00%. Hike change +4.51pp. Current rate 0.000%; displayed expected move 5.56bp.

Bias & short summary: Neutral. A minority of explicit defensive recommendations is outweighed by neutral and conditional coverage, while retail and weekly fund changes add little direction. European fiscal risk remains relevant, but neither the current market mood nor the supplied Swiss data creates a stronger final lean. CHF stays outside the trade cards. Coverage spans five providers: one bullish, zero bearish and four neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Principal driver — real yields provide a less supportive backdrop than USD alone suggests. Spot gold rose 0.2% in the wrap as the dollar softened. Official 10Y real yield nevertheless increased 3bp to 2.67%, after 2.64%, while its five-session change was -9bp from 2.76%. The latest observation therefore combines modest daily pressure with a somewhat easier weekly backdrop. Dollar weakness may help the quoted price, but it does not establish a fall in the real opportunity cost of holding gold.

Retail gold positioning has shifted to 66.0% long, adding a negative contrarian lean, while fund exposure changed only -1.1pp. The source gives no latest outright spot close, so earlier bank levels remain dated reference areas. At 19:30 WIB core PCE 0.3% and GDP 3.2% can reprice real yields: hot inflation with rising yields would challenge the bounce, whereas a cool print with lower real yields could sustain it. Gold does not inherit a bullish conclusion merely from Gulf uncertainty.

Institution Commentaries

Rates and inflation transmission dominate the near term. MUFG (28 October 2026) described gold near USD4,041 before the Fed and focused on whether PCE confirms or weakens December tightening. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) quoted Zaner Metals strategist Peter Grant: “Softer oil prices will probably provide some lift for gold”, through less inflation concern and reduced Fed hawkishness. Its USD4,060.51 spot observation belongs to the earlier recap, rather than today’s missing close. The same inflation channel can reverse when oil strengthens and policy expectations rise.

Strategic accumulation does not remove liquidation risk. Bank Syz (26 October 2026) argues that continuing ETF accumulation could allow “good re- bound in gold once panic settles”, based on attributed secondary research, while describing earlier liquidation. Crédit Agricole CIB (28 October 2026) includes gold within a broader risk index rather than making an outright gold forecast. These observations separate a possible strategic allocation case from the current real-yield and retail backdrop; the institutional set remains mainly neutral.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

10Y real: 2.67% vs 2.64%; 1D +3bp; 5D -9bp vs 2.76% on 21 October. Official Treasury par series; latest outright spot close absent.

Bias & short summary: Bearish with low conviction. The newly long retail crowd supplies the negative lean; modest daily and weekly real-yield moves and mixed research do not give stronger reinforcement. A sustained drop in real yields after tonight’s US releases would challenge this conclusion. The conviction does not support a direct gold trade card. Coverage spans four providers: one bullish, zero bearish and three neutral.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Principal driver — unresolved supply risk alongside two-way diplomacy. December WTI rose 2.0% and January Brent 0.3% in the wrap, with no outright settlement. Official US–Iran developments exist in the last five trading days: Trump confirms mediated talks but doubts success, Araghchi keeps diplomacy open, and a senior Iranian official denies the reported new Qatari draft. The latest and wider record are mixed. The dated UKMTO shipping incident remains relevant, while CENTCOM’s denial of mine claims and the unconfirmed Ras Tanura damage account prevent treating every alarming headline as a new verified outage.

EIA’s -1.892M crude draw against no change, the SPR reduction to 282.6M and an earlier API draw near 2M support a tighter physical balance. The board rounds EIA to -1.9M against +0.1M, a separate consensus vintage. Future diesel exports and the early-2027 Fujairah route can ease supply later, but neither establishes immediate barrels delivered. Today’s US 19:30 WIB package affects demand and the dollar, while new official diplomacy or a verified shipping interruption can dominate that macro effect. Retail is near balanced rather than adding a fresh directional push.

Institution Commentaries

Elevated premium can coexist with a later reversal. Danske Bank (28 October 2026) expects oil “to stay elevated near-term on tight supply conditions”. SEB (27 October 2026) describes a large post-midterm strike premium and potential damage to energy infrastructure. ING (28 October 2026) stresses that an agreement may not even be necessary for prices to fall: passing the elections without fresh strikes could erode the premium. Its assessment that “the market is pricing in a greater likelihood of re-escalation” describes expectations rather than an announced operation. These views differ in timing, not in recognising substantial event risk.

Contract, timestamp and source status matter. MUFG (28 October 2026) cites earlier Brent near USD116 and WTI near USD101.88 plus an attributed refinery fire; Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) describes the prior diplomatic pullback near USD113.88 Brent and USD99.83 WTI. Bank Syz (27 October 2026) reports recovering Saudi exports using Vortexa-based secondary material. Those observations are distinct snapshots and contracts, not substitutes for today’s absent settlements. Natixis (28 October 2026) reviews the earlier weekly advance as attacks and strike fears lifted supply concern. Bank views explain the premium but the direction here relies on official diplomacy and the dated shipping record.

Data, flows and scenario evidence. Westpac (26 October 2026), Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities (26 October 2026), KBC (28 October 2026), Scotiabank (26 October 2026), Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026), BNP Paribas (26 October 2026), UniCredit (27 October 2026), Crédit Agricole CIB (27 October 2026), QCAM (27 October 2026). The remaining energy and macro accounts connect supply fears to inflation, rate policy and producer investment. Westpac’s supply-chain discussion, Scotiabank’s provincial investment analysis and BNP Paribas’s inflation outlook operate on different horizons. The European and Japanese rates accounts concern the policy consequences of dearer energy. Their common contribution is transmission into financing and demand, rather than verification of new lost barrels or an announced escalation.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

WTI December +2.0%; Brent January +0.3%. Wrap snapshots; outright settlement prices absent. Prior research uses other timestamps and Brent maturities.

Bias & short summary: Bullish with low conviction. Mixed official diplomacy leaves substantial two-way risk, while the in-window shipping incident supports a modest positive lean. The crude draw adds physical context, and retail has returned near balance. Verified de-escalation or restored shipping confidence can unwind the premium quickly; there is insufficient conviction for an outright oil trade card. Energy and cross-market research covers sixteen providers; their forecasts contextualise the physical and diplomatic evidence.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

ES: SPX cash rose 0.28% to a rounded 7,744, but the equal-weight index was flat. Technology, Energy and Financials led while defensive and rate-sensitive sectors lagged. Official 10Y nominal yield rose 6bp to 5.05%, increasing the valuation hurdle. Microsoft’s beat and Alphabet’s miss count once each; Fortinet and ServiceNow price weakness lacks enough quantified consensus detail for extra earnings-surprise votes. The later flat ES snapshot is distinct from a settlement and from the cash close. US GDP/core PCE at 19:30 WIB will test whether growth relief outweighs inflation and discount-rate pressure.

NQ: Nasdaq 100 cash rose 0.55% to a rounded 29,813, while the later NQ snapshot was -0.2%. Microsoft’s broad cloud and profit beats contrast with Alphabet’s earnings and Services misses despite a Cloud beat. Oracle financing reassurance helped the earlier session, but the after-hours divergence shows investors still distinguish revenue growth from returns on capital. The higher long yield affects duration-sensitive NQ independently of its improving fund exposure. Cool inflation with resilient GDP could extend relief, whereas hot inflation and higher real yields would make expensive growth harder to defend.

Institution Commentaries

Demand strength and financing discipline. UniCredit (27 October 2026) remains constructive because “the evidence points to broadening adoption rather than weakening demand”, while noting technology’s roughly 7.5pp contribution to S&P returns in its dated analysis. ING (28 October 2026) connects earlier technology stability with renewed focus on restrictive policy. Nomura (27 October 2026) warns of asymmetric negative reactions if big-tech earnings disappoint, and Deutsche Bank Sales and Trading (26 October 2026) says capex reactions could rival the Fed for market importance. These views share a focus on funding and monetisation, but differ over whether adoption strength is enough to offset rising financing costs.

Breadth and cash allocation require separate judgement. Crédit Agricole CIB (28 October 2026) observes “risk appetite continues to wane” despite an AI revival. Bank Syz (27 October 2026) contrasts Microsoft’s rising revenue with restrained headcount, while Bank Syz (27 October 2026) discusses an attributed future Anthropic funding stack rather than current realised cash. Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) reports the earlier rally and broad earnings-beat share; Reuters / LSEG (28 October 2026) highlights investor scrutiny of AI financing. Those older corporate recaps provide context but are not counted again as tonight’s results. ES has broader sector exposures; NQ concentrates the cloud, semiconductor and funding debate, so the same macro shock can produce different outcomes.

Data, flows and scenario evidence. Danske Bank (27 October 2026), Westpac (28 October 2026), Natixis (27 October 2026), MUFG (28 October 2026). The remaining dated equity and macro accounts keep earnings prospects separate from funding conditions and risk appetite. Dealer discussions stress that capex announcements require cash returns, while Natixis and Danske Bank describe cross-asset sentiment and earlier market moves. MUFG’s Fed preview asks whether tighter financial conditions do more of the policy work. Those arguments contextualise ES breadth and NQ concentration without converting secondary financing estimates into realised constituent earnings.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

10Y nominal: 5.05% vs 4.99%; 1D +6bp; 5D -8bp. ES snapshot flat; NQ snapshot -0.2%. Verified futures settlements absent; cash SPX +0.28%, NDX +0.55% remain separate.

Bias & short summary: ES: Bearish with low conviction, as higher long yields weigh and neutral retail provides no offset. NQ: Neutral, as improved leveraged-fund exposure offsets the negative rates backdrop. The two indices share earnings dispersion but differ in positioning. Positive cash closes do not establish a broad risk-on regime or verified futures returns, and neither supports a direct index trade card today. Dated research coverage spans ten ES providers and nine NQ providers.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 3 — Research, COT & Retail Positioning

12 assets · COT 20 October 2026

G10 FX Scorecard

Market	Section 2 Bias + Short Summary	COT — Leveraged Funds / Managed Money	Retail Sentiment	Final Bias
USD	The Fed’s unchanged rate and softer communication reduced immediate dollar support, with DXY down 0.2% at 102.13; the December panel is not comparable with yesterday’s October meeting, and tonight’s 19:30 WIB inflation and growth package can reverse that interpretation. Institutions remain mostly neutral with several bullish and bearish views, so the positive final lean comes from the heavily short retail crowd rather than an unqualified bullish research consensus.Research Score: +0	+6.4% vs +4.0% (+2.4pp)COT Score: +0 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	39.0% long / 61.0% shortRetail Score: +1 Prepared 29 October; image capture clock absent.	Bullish +1
EUR	ECB communication at 20:15/20:45 WIB must balance persistent energy inflation against tighter credit and sovereign stress; the latest 11.60% hike chance is down 1.16pp and GfK missed at -30.8. Most institutional coverage is neutral with a bearish minority, while heavily long retail adds the negative final lean; a hawkish ECB accompanied by contained sovereign spreads would challenge it.Research Score: +0	-7.8% vs -7.8% (-0.1pp)COT Score: +0 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	77.6% long / 22.4% shortRetail Score: -1 Prepared 29 October; image capture clock absent.	Bearish -1
GBP	The Budget pairs 2027 growth of 1.0% with inflation of 3.4%, and issuance exceeds expectations, so the currency needs confidence in financing rather than simply higher gilt yields. BoE hike pricing is unchanged at 100.00%, institutional horizons differ and retail is near balanced; improved fund exposure supplies the positive final lean, tested by 16:30 WIB household-credit data and the later US package.Research Score: +0	+9.5% vs +3.8% (+5.6pp)COT Score: +1 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	46.6% long / 53.4% shortRetail Score: +0 Prepared 29 October; image capture clock absent.	Bullish +1
AUD	RBA November hike probability rose 7.72pp to 82.13%, extending the repricing after the CPI surprise already covered yesterday; import prices of -1.1% versus 1.3% expected offer a counterweight. Several banks favour AUD, particularly against NZD, alongside broader neutral coverage, while the large retail-short crowd reinforces a medium-conviction positive conclusion; global funding stress remains the main challenge to the relative policy argument.Research Score: +1	+15.8% vs +14.9% (+0.9pp)COT Score: +0 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	20.6% long / 79.4% shortRetail Score: +1 Prepared 29 October; image capture clock absent.	Bullish +2
NZD	The completed 2.75% RBNZ hold against a 3.00% forecast weakens confidence in the later hiking path, while ANZ confidence at 52.5 has no forecast and supplies no fresh surprise. Several banks now favour NZD underperformance but many retain neutral policy coverage; funds reduced exposure and retail is heavily long, giving a medium-conviction negative lean that can still face a dollar-driven squeeze after US inflation.Research Score: +0	-14.7% vs -9.3% (-5.4pp)COT Score: -1 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	83.6% long / 16.4% shortRetail Score: -1 Prepared 29 October; image capture clock absent.	Bearish -2
CAD	The expected 25bp BoC hike to 2.50% and higher inflation forecast improve the policy backdrop, but the new December meeting cannot be compared directly with yesterday’s October probability. Research remains mixed on whether future tightening can coexist with weak employment and trade risks, while fund changes and near-balanced retail offer little direction; the final view is neutral pending the US data and BoC speakers.Research Score: +0	-23.7% vs -23.3% (-0.5pp)COT Score: +0 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	46.0% long / 54.0% shortRetail Score: +0 Prepared 29 October; image capture clock absent.	Neutral +0
JPY	The yen’s 0.1% recovery against USD followed the Fed’s softer immediate rate interpretation, while BoJ October hike pricing rose only 2.87pp to 8.05% and an immediate hold remains dominant. Institutions differ over timing and currency direction, but improved fund exposure and retail shorts reinforce the medium-conviction positive final lean; tomorrow’s BoJ communication matters, and JPY remains excluded from trade selection.Research Score: +0	-6.0% vs -9.0% (+3.0pp)COT Score: +1 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	35.1% long / 64.9% shortRetail Score: +1 Prepared 29 October; image capture clock absent.	Bullish +2
CHF	SNB December hike probability increased 4.51pp to 23.62%, while UBS expectations deteriorated to -15.3 without a supplied consensus; neither creates a stronger immediate currency direction. Defensive recommendations coexist with neutral and conditional research, and positioning is near balanced, leaving the final view neutral; ECB spread management can change the context but CHF remains outside the trade cards.Research Score: +0	-10.0% vs -10.9% (+0.9pp)COT Score: +0 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	51.6% long / 48.4% shortRetail Score: +0 Prepared 29 October; image capture clock absent.	Neutral +0

Cross-Asset Scorecard

Market	Section 2 Bias + Short Summary	COT — Leveraged Funds / Managed Money	Retail Sentiment	Final Bias
GOLD	Official 10Y real yield rose 3bp to 2.67% and is down 9bp over five sessions, a mixed backdrop despite the wrap’s 0.2% spot gain after the Fed. Institutional coverage is mainly neutral with a strategic rebound argument, while the newly long retail crowd supplies the low-conviction negative final lean; tonight’s core PCE can challenge it through a sustained change in real yields.Research Score: +0	+25.9% vs +27.0% (-1.1pp)COT Score: +0 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	66.0% long / 34.0% shortRetail Score: -1 29 October 04:58 WIB	Bearish -1
OIL	Official diplomacy remains mixed over the latest day and five-session window, while the dated UKMTO shipping incident supports a modest positive final lean; EIA’s -1.892M draw supplies physical context without replacing that diplomatic record. Retail has returned near balance and funds changed little, so a verified agreement or renewed confidence in Gulf flows can quickly unwind the premium; latest outright settlements are unavailable.Research Score: +1	+2.0% vs +2.1% (-0.2pp)COT Score: +0 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	52.0% long / 48.0% shortRetail Score: +0 28 October 18:24 WIB	Bullish +1
ES	The 6bp rise in official nominal 10Y yield raises the discount-rate hurdle even though SPX cash gained 0.28%; flat equal-weight performance reveals limited breadth and the ES snapshot was flat. Microsoft and Alphabet offset in the identifiable earnings balance, with other software reactions insufficiently quantified, while neutral retail and a small fund change leave a low-conviction negative final view; cash levels cannot fill missing ES settlements.Research Score: -1	-19.2% vs -21.2% (+2.0pp)COT Score: +0 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	49.0% long / 51.0% shortRetail Score: +0 29 October 04:58 WIB	Bearish -1
NQ	Nasdaq 100 cash gained 0.55%, but the later NQ snapshot fell 0.2% as Microsoft strength met Alphabet weakness and lingering capex concerns; the higher long yield remains a headwind. Improved leveraged-fund exposure offsets that negative rates backdrop while retail is neutral, producing a neutral final view distinct from ES; tonight’s inflation and growth data test whether financing relief extends beyond the strongest cloud companies.Research Score: -1	+0.3% vs -4.1% (+4.5pp)COT Score: +1 Latest released Tuesday positions, published Friday; weekly change uses unrounded source values and can differ from subtracting displayed rounded percentages.	49.0% long / 51.0% shortRetail Score: +0 29 October 04:58 WIB	Neutral +0

CFTC positions 20 October, released 23 October. FX DMX equal-weight composites. ES/NQ/Gold 29 October 04:58 WIB; WTI 28 October 18:24 WIB. Official Treasury observations 28 October; rounded cash levels and futures snapshots kept distinct.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 4 — Risk-On / Risk-Off Trade Ideas

5 ideas · event confirmation and invalidation

Score Divergence

Thesis

RBA repricing contrasts with RBNZ reluctance, favouring AUD/NZD while the rate-path divergence persists.

AUD bullish against a bearish NZD

Triggers

Hold a pullback near 1.248, SEB 28 October’s buyer area, then require renewed AUD/NZD demand; a reference in dated research needs a fresh successful test before entry.
Alternatively confirm acceptance above 1.260, ING 28 October’s anticipated breakout, with Australian front-end rates staying firm relative to New Zealand; avoid chasing an isolated headline spike.
After US GDP/core PCE at 19:30 WIB, reassess the cross: domestic policy divergence must survive any broad funding shock before the Score Divergence position is carried through the US session.

Invalidation

Sustained failure below SEB’s 1.248 area ends the immediate dip-buying setup; do not treat a repeatedly broken reference as automatic support.
Reversal in relative front-end rates, with RBNZ tightening expectations recovering and RBA expectations retreating, removes the mechanism even if the cross has not yet reached its price reference.

Main Risks

Cards 01 and 02 share an AUD long: a global technology or funding sell-off can damage both, so confirmation must survive outside the domestic inflation narrative.
NZD is already heavily sold in the earlier reaction. A dollar-driven recovery can spill into crosses; reassess after 19:30 WIB even though this card does not depend on a scenario trigger.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Pair retail confirms: AUD/NZD 13% long and 87% short, leaning against the crowd in the proposed long direction; this does not replace the level and rate confirmation.

Thesis

Europe’s credit and fiscal constraints face firmer RBA pricing, favouring AUD over EUR while spreads remain orderly.

EUR bearish against a bullish AUD

Triggers

Require a failed EUR/AUD rebound while RBA hike pricing remains firm; the source supplies no cross-price level, so use relative market confirmation rather than an invented entry number.
At ECB 20:15 WIB, an expected refinancing hold at 2.65% keeps the setup valid only if communication does not restore a stronger euro rate path or reverse the cross lower-high pattern.
At the 20:45 WIB press conference, seek caution over credit and sovereign financing with EUR/AUD selling; ING 28 October’s lending concern provides the mechanism, while the price response provides confirmation.

Invalidation

A hawkish ECB that raises expected rates while keeping sovereign spreads contained invalidates the policy-relative short if EUR/AUD begins sustaining its rebound.
RBA repricing reverses or the Australian import-price miss broadens into evidence of weaker domestic inflation persistence; reassess rather than treating yesterday’s CPI as permanent support.

Main Risks

The Score Divergence category shares EUR risk with 03 and AUD risk with 01. An ECB squeeze or broad commodity-currency liquidation can therefore affect more than one card together.
Verified Gulf de-escalation could lower Europe’s energy burden while reducing commodity support; the 20:45 WIB communication ends the pre-ECB thesis if the relative-rate response turns favourable to EUR.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Pair retail confirms the short: EUR/AUD is 95% long and 5% short. Crowding can persist, so use it alongside an actual failed rebound and the central-bank response.

Thesis

Euro credit and fiscal pressure favours failed rallies, but the softer Fed reaction requires renewed USD confirmation.

EUR bearish against a bullish USD

Triggers

Require a failed rebound and renewed dollar demand before entry; ING 28 October describes euro lending weakness, but the post-Fed USD fall means the earlier bearish trend cannot be assumed intact.
Use ING’s 1.1065/1110 support zone only on a fresh break and failed retest, or Reuters/LSEG 28 October’s 1.1100 support; these are dated source references, not a claim about today’s spot.
At 19:30 WIB GDP/core PCE, retain the short only if USD gains are sustained, then reassess through ECB 20:15 WIB and its 20:45 WIB press conference before extending the position.

Invalidation

Sustained euro buying after the ECB, supported by stronger expected rates and contained spreads, invalidates the relative policy argument even if earlier technical support had broken.
A cool US inflation release that drives yields and USD persistently lower ends the immediate dollar-confirmation requirement; do not maintain a short solely because retail remains crowded long.

Main Risks

Cards 02 and 03 share a short EUR; a stronger ECB message can challenge both. Card 05 adds another USD long only in its separate risk-off branch, increasing dollar correlation.
The Fed reaction is material counterevidence to immediate dollar strength. Reassess at both scheduled releases and end the setup when the required rate and FX confirmation fails.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Pair retail confirms: EUR/USD is 88% long and 12% short. The imbalance supports a contrarian short but cannot substitute for renewed dollar demand after the Fed.

Risk On Trades

Thesis

Cool US inflation with resilient growth could support sterling over NZD’s weakened policy cushion.

GBP bullish against a bearish NZD

Triggers

Either/or with Risk Off 05: activate only after 19:30 WIB core PCE below 0.3%, GDP at or above 3.2%, and a sustained improvement in equity risk appetite without a disorderly yield rise.
Require GBP/NZD buying and orderly gilts after the US package; ING 28 October’s fiscal-premium argument supports sterling only when financing confidence actually holds, not merely when gilt yields rise.
Use the 16:30 WIB UK credit package as a supporting check: material weakness in approvals or lending requires stronger subsequent sterling confirmation, rather than automatic activation from a cool US price print.

Invalidation

In-line or mixed US data activate neither scenario; low GDP accompanying cool inflation is a growth scare rather than this resilient-growth risk-on branch.
Renewed gilt stress or persistent NZD outperformance invalidates the cross even if equities rise. End the card if the UK financing or relative-policy premise fails after the event.

Main Risks

This Risk On card is either/or with 05 and adds another NZD short alongside 01; a sharp kiwi rebound can affect both, requiring a reassessment of the shared currency leg.
Lower US yields can help NZD/USD through dollar weakness. The cross therefore needs observed GBP outperformance; a global rally without that relative response is insufficient to sustain the trade.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Pair retail confirms the long: GBP/NZD 20% long and 80% short. Crowding can persist; require observed GBP outperformance because lower US yields can also support NZD and weaken this relative expression.

Risk Off Trades

Thesis

Hot US inflation and renewed rate support could expose NZD’s fragile hiking path against the dollar.

NZD bearish against a bullish USD

Triggers

Either/or with Risk On 04: activate only after 19:30 WIB core PCE above 0.3%, GDP at or above 3.2%, rising US front-end yields and sustained equity weakness confirm inflation-driven risk aversion.
Require NZD/USD selling through a freshly tested support area. Reuters/LSEG 28 October identifies 0.5566, while KBC gives 0.5580/65; use the latest successful break rather than assuming those areas remain untouched.
ING 28 October warns that the future New Zealand hiking path is vulnerable; retain the short only when US rate support strengthens relative to NZ rates and the dollar advance survives the first reaction.

Invalidation

Core PCE at 0.3%, GDP below 3.2% or conflicting yield/equity reactions activate neither scenario; a growth scare with lower US yields is a different mechanism and does not qualify here.
A failed downside break with recovering NZD and retreating US yields invalidates the setup. Reclaiming Reuters/LSEG’s 0.5637 reference strengthens the case to abandon the immediate bearish continuation.

Main Risks

This Risk Off card is either/or with 04 and shares USD demand with 03 plus NZD weakness with 01. Reduce overlapping exposure if the same data surprise drives every position.
The prior Fed reaction was dollar-negative, so a brief inflation spike may fade. The event ends the card if yields and FX fail to sustain the required reversal after the initial volatility.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Pair retail confirms the short: NZD/USD 89% long and 11% short. The crowd is heavily exposed, but a short-covering rally can still invalidate the trade before that positioning changes.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 5 — Today’s Key Risk Events

29 October 2026 · all times WIB (UTC+7)

Active Geopolitical Risk

GEO

Gulf diplomacy and shipping conditions LIVE

Focus

Trump confirms mediated talks with uncertain success; Araghchi keeps diplomacy open, while a senior Iranian official denies a reported new Qatari draft. CENTCOM denies mine-impact claims; refinery damage remains attributed rather than confirmed lost production. Consultations before 4 November are a diplomatic watch point.

Market Read

Verified progress can ease Europe’s energy burden and challenge euro-short Score Divergence 02/03; renewed disruption could raise the burden while damaging AUD through global risk. These headlines require immediate reassessment of the core cards but do not activate either/or Risk On 04 or Risk Off 05: those require the future 19:30 WIB US GDP/core PCE package and market confirmation.

Today’s calendar · all times WIB (UTC+7)

THU

Thursday, 29 October 2026 — all times WIB (UTC+7) HIGH

Key Data

LOW12:00 WIB JPY — Consumer Confidence; Forecast 35.1, Previous 35.4. Hot / soft scenario: Above 35.1 supports household confidence; below it weakens the domestic outlook. Context only: JPY is excluded from trade cards, with tomorrow’s BoJ communication the larger policy test.
LOW16:00 WIB EUR — Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate; Forecast 6.2%, Previous 6.2%. Hot / soft scenario: Below 6.2% would support labour resilience and challenge Score Divergence 02/03; a rise reinforces growth concerns. This lower-impact release needs a euro response and cannot replace tonight’s ECB rate-path and sovereign-spread evidence.
LOW16:30 WIB GBP — M4 Money Supply m/m; Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%. Hot / soft scenario: Above 0.3% may indicate firmer monetary growth; below it points to softer transmission. It supports or challenges the sterling leg of Risk On 04 but does not activate that card before the 19:30 WIB US gate.
LOW16:30 WIB GBP — Mortgage Approvals; Forecast 54K, Previous 55K. Hot / soft scenario: Above 54K supports housing-credit resilience and the GBP leg of Risk On 04; below it warns that tighter policy is restraining demand. Assess alongside lending and gilt behaviour after the Budget rather than reading approvals alone as a currency signal.
LOW16:30 WIB GBP — Net Lending to Individuals m/m; Forecast 6.2B, Previous 6.9B. Hot / soft scenario: Above 6.2B alongside stronger approvals improves the household-credit argument for Risk On 04; below it weakens that argument. Faster lending with deteriorating funding conditions is less constructive than an orderly recovery in credit and sterling.
HIGH19:30 WIB USD — Advance GDP q/q; Forecast 3.2%, Previous 2.2%. Hot / soft scenario: At or above 3.2% with core PCE below 0.3% and improving equities can activate Risk On 04; at or above 3.2% with core PCE above 0.3%, higher yields and weak equities can activate Risk Off 05. Either/or: weaker GDP or mixed confirmation activates neither branch.
HIGH19:30 WIB USD — Core PCE Price Index m/m; Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%. Hot / soft scenario: Below 0.3% with GDP at or above 3.2% tests Risk On 04; above 0.3% with firm GDP and an inflation-driven rise in yields tests Risk Off 05. A 0.3% print leaves only the Score Divergence cards, subject to their own price and rate confirmation.
MEDIUM19:30 WIB USD — Advance GDP Price Index q/q; Forecast 3.2%, Previous 6.1%. Hot / soft scenario: Above 3.2% strengthens the inflation concern behind Risk Off 05; below it supports disinflation but cannot override monthly core PCE. Conflicting quarterly and monthly price signals require waiting rather than selecting a branch from whichever headline initially favours the trade.
MEDIUM19:30 WIB USD — Unemployment Claims; Forecast 198K, Previous 194K. Hot / soft scenario: Below 198K suggests a firm labour market and may reinforce USD rate support for Risk Off 05 when inflation is hot; above it indicates softer labour demand. A growth scare with falling yields is not this card’s inflation-led mechanism and activates neither scenario by itself.
LOW19:30 WIB USD — Personal Income m/m; Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%. Hot / soft scenario: Above 0.3% with cool inflation supports purchasing power and the resilient-growth interpretation for Risk On 04; below it cautions against assuming consumption strength. Assess income together with spending and inflation rather than converting a nominal gain into stronger real demand.
LOW19:30 WIB USD — Personal Spending m/m; Forecast 0.6%, Previous 0.9%. Hot / soft scenario: Above 0.6% supports demand resilience but could reinforce inflation concern if core PCE is hot; below it weakens the growth case. Use this to qualify either/or cards 04/05, with GDP, core prices, yields and equities still required for activation.
LOW19:50 WIB CAD — Gov Council Member Gravelle Speaks; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: A firm explanation of further tightening supports CAD expectations; emphasis on weak demand favours caution. Context only for the untraded CAD view, with any broader funding-market spillover a reassessment point for Risk On 04 and Risk Off 05.
HIGH20:15 WIB EUR — Main Refinancing Rate; Forecast 2.65%, Previous 2.65%. Hot / soft scenario: An unexpected hike or clearly stronger future path can challenge EUR shorts in Score Divergence 02/03; an expected hold with caution on credit supports them only if EUR sells. The deposit-rate reference is 2.50%, a different policy rate from this 2.65% calendar line.
HIGH20:15 WIB EUR — Monetary Policy Statement; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: Language preserving a credible December hike with contained sovereign spreads would weaken Score Divergence 02/03. Emphasis on restrictive financing and softer loan demand supports their argument, but any market reaction must be judged against the earlier US data rather than attributed solely to the statement.
HIGH20:45 WIB EUR — ECB Press Conference; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: A convincing anti-inflation message with orderly spreads can invalidate EUR shorts 02/03; a softer policy path or renewed financing stress can sustain them. Reassess the entire relative-rate argument after the questions, since an initial headline and the final market interpretation can differ.
LOW21:30 WIB USD — Natural Gas Storage; Forecast 75B, Previous 77B. Hot / soft scenario: Below 75B suggests a tighter gas balance; above it suggests more supply cushion. No direct gas trade is selected: context only for energy-cost transmission into Europe and the assumptions behind euro-short Score Divergence 02/03, with actual regional price responses still necessary.
LOW22:30 WIB CAD — Gov Council Member Vincent Speaks; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: Confirmation of the careful-hiking message supports continuity in CAD policy expectations; a different emphasis on jobs or inflation could change the next-meeting debate. Context only for CAD, and review any late cross-market spillover before carrying Risk On 04 or Risk Off 05 overnight.
LOWTentative EUR — Italian 10Y Bond Auction; Forecast —, Previous 4.58% | 1.6. Hot / soft scenario: Stronger demand than 1.6 bid-to-cover with orderly pricing supports financing confidence and challenges Score Divergence 02/03; weaker cover and a higher yield than 4.58% can signal more funding strain. Timing is tentative, so no precise clock is inferred from its position on the board.

Market Read

Read the simultaneous US releases as one package. Cool core inflation with resilient GDP and supportive equities tests Risk On 04; hot inflation with firm GDP, rising yields and weaker equities tests Risk Off 05. An in-line or inconsistent package activates neither and leaves only the Score Divergence ideas, each subject to its own invalidation. Then reassess euro shorts at 20:15/20:45 WIB rather than assuming the US reaction survives the ECB. The wrap’s remaining watch list includes Australian export prices, Japanese supply, Fed follow-through and the cash response to Microsoft/Alphabet: no extra actuals or event clocks are inferred beyond the supplied material.

MV Research

Research for scenario planning. Execute after the stated confirmation and reassess at invalidation.

Wrap cut-off 29 October 04:25 WIB; board actuals through 07:30 WIB. Pricing and DMX capture clocks absent.