Daily Research
Trump said Iran is failing and oil prices will tumble. OFAC sanctioned 10 procurement targets. A diplomatic source said Iran will discuss the nuclear issue only after Hormuz is resolved. UKMTO recorded a vessel struck by a projectile in the Strait on the evening of 28 Sep; the crew is safe. Qatar says mediation continues. Axios said this week's talks yielded little progress. No separate oil-supply file was supplied; this list is the on-record set.
Williams (voter) sees no need for urgency after the September hike. Barr (voter) said further adjustments are likely still needed. The RBA hiked 25bp to 4.60% and left the door open, but Bullock said a hold was considered. Lagarde pushed back on an October ECB hike. BoE's Taylor said the case for further increases is not compelling unless energy prices stay high.
From the notable file, as of 16:50 EDT: DXY +0.2% to 101.38, SPX -0.17% to 7,671, NDX +0.21% to 30,339, ES Dec -0.1%, NQ Dec +0.3%, WTI Nov -4.0%, Brent Dec -2.0%, spot gold +1.7%, US 10yr at 5.24%. The market file has no 29 Sep close for DXY, gold, WTI, Brent, ES or NQ, so those closes are not used as reference levels.
The PBoC cut the one-year PSL rate 25bp to 1.50%. UK PM Burnham said the triple lock becomes a double lock in 2030. Neither is a G10 policy-rate repricing.
Williams said there is no need for urgency after the September hike, and October hike odds fell 19.83pp to 50.35%. Confidence was 81.9 vs 89.2 and JOLTS 7.08M vs 7.23M. The notable file has DXY at 101.38; the market file has no 29 Sep DXY close. EUR/USD closed at 1.13727. ING says a US-Iran deal looks unlikely before the 3 November midterms, and that Brent touched $109 before sitting near $107. Danske keeps the 12-month EUR/USD target at 1.12, below the 1.19 consensus and the 1.15 forward it cites.
ING Research: "Upside risks are rising again for the greenback". Danske Bank: "Relative macro and monetary policy outlook push EUR/USD lower towards 1.12 on a 12M horizon". 2 of 2 banks lean bullish (28–29 Sep). The two medium misses and the dovish repricing outweigh that bank lean.
Current scenario: Hike 50.35% / Hold 49.65%. Prior (29 Sep daily): Hike 70.18% / Hold 29.82%. Delta Hike -19.83pp. Meeting 28 Oct. Current rate 3.8750%.
Lagarde pushed back on an October hike. Spanish flash CPI was 4.9% vs 4.6%. EUR/USD closed at 1.13727, down 5.3 pips on the day. ECB hike odds slipped 1.98pp to 42.31%, too small to count. Scotiabank has Spanish CPI at 0.3% m/m versus 0.1% and core at 3.1% y/y versus 3%, not enough to move a mostly priced October hold. Lloyds still has support at 1.1354 and 1.1325, a cap at 1.1411, and 1.1214 exposed below that.
Danske Bank: "Relative macro and monetary policy outlook push EUR/USD lower towards 1.12 on a 12M horizon". Lloyds Bank: "We continue to expect lower levels". ING Research: "any hint of strong US data could prompt a test of the 1.1320-30 summer lows", with a higher EUR/USD still its year-end base case, so ING is not counted as a lean. 2 of 2 counted banks lean bearish (28–29 Sep). KBC's 1.2349 EUR/USD target is stale boilerplate and is excluded.
Current scenario: Hike 42.31% / Hold 57.69%. Prior (29 Sep daily): Hike 44.29% / Hold 55.71%. Delta Hike -1.98pp. Meeting 29 Oct. Current rate 2.5000%.
BoE November hike odds eased 1.78pp to 79.43%. Taylor said the case for further increases is not compelling unless energy prices stay high. GBP/USD closed at 1.32543, up 25.1 pips. Net lending beat (6.9B vs 6.2B); mortgage approvals missed (55K vs 56K). Lloyds has a floor at 1.3207 after 1.3303 and 1.3274 gave way, with a close back above 1.3274 the first sign of stabilisation and 1.3333 needed for a base. Over five days GBP/USD is still down 0.87% (-116.6 pips).
Lloyds Bank: the immediate trend is "still lower", with 1.3140 exposed and 1.3000 the more important zone. That is 1 of 1 banks (28–29 Sep), too few for a consensus. KBC's EUR/GBP block still describes a BoE cutting cycle from a 4% rate and is excluded as stale.
Current scenario: Hike 79.43% / Hold 20.57%. Prior (29 Sep daily): Hike 81.21% / Hold 18.79%. Delta Hike -1.78pp. Meeting 5 Nov. Current rate 3.7500%.
The RBA hiked to 4.60% as priced. Bullock said policymakers considered holding. AUD/USD closed at 0.70164, up 7.3 pips, after trading below 0.700 intraday (ING). Today's CPI forecasts are 0.5% m/m and 4.1% y/y, trimmed mean 0.3% m/m. The November meeting is a new board: Hold 64.06% / Hike 35.94%, not comparable with yesterday's 100.00% hike odds. ING's December AUD/USD call is 0.720 and still needs a softer dollar. MUFG has iron ore down about 5% from this month's high and the pair testing the 200-day average near 0.7030. Over five days AUD/USD is down 1.44% (-102.6 pips).
Danske Bank: "We maintain our negative stance on AUD/USD and expect the cross to trade lower towards 0.68 from the current level just above 0.70". ING Research: "near-term downside risks have increased for AUD/USD". MUFG: "Those comments may put a dampener on expectations for further tightening and has weighed on the Aussie overnight". Scotiabank Economics: "the A$ lost a little ground to the greenback". KBC reports the Board will keep doing what is necessary, including a further hike, and AUD/USD holding above 0.70. 4 of 5 banks lean bearish (28–29 Sep).
Next meeting 3 Nov, after yesterday's hike to 4.60%. Current scenario: Hold 64.06% / Hike 35.94%. Prior daily priced the 29 Sep meeting at Hike 100.00%, which has been delivered. Not comparable, so the policy piece is flat.
ANZ Business Confidence is already out at 51.9 vs previous 53.7, with no forecast, and it is low impact. NZD/USD closed at 0.56635, up 12.1 pips, still down 0.84% over five days. RBNZ October hike odds fell 5.73pp to 71.73%. The five-day decline is 48.1 pips. Pair retail is 93% long NZD/USD and 94% long NZD/JPY, the same direction as cards 02 and 04.
No bank in the 29 Sep pack states an NZD view. one bank is not on the page (28–29 Sep), so there is no consensus to add.
Current scenario: Hike 71.73% / Hold 28.27%. Prior (29 Sep daily): Hike 77.46% / Hold 22.54%. Delta Hike -5.73pp. Meeting 28 Oct. Current rate 2.7500%.
Canada GDP was 0.0% vs 0.0% vs 0.4%, in line. USD/CAD closed at 1.41771, up 22.3 pips. BoC October hike odds fell 6.32pp to 53.88%. Canadian banks are shut today. Lloyds says the rally has reclaimed 1.4150 and, if stopped at 1.4109, would buy dips back towards 1.4016. Over five days USD/CAD is up 1.03% (+144.3 pips).
Lloyds Bank: "maintain longs here, shifting up stops to the 1.4109 line", with the June highs at 1.4248 still the target. That is 1 of 1 banks (28–29 Sep), too few to add a consensus on top of the BoC repricing.
Current scenario: Hike 53.88% / Hold 46.12%. Prior (29 Sep daily): Hike 60.20% / Hold 39.80%. Delta Hike -6.32pp. Meeting 28 Oct. Current rate 2.2500%.
Prelim industrial production was -1.7% vs 1.4% and retail sales 2.7% vs 3.3%, both already out and both low impact. USD/JPY closed at 157.361, down 10.2 pips. BoJ October hike odds jumped 11.48pp to 36.00%. MUFG recorded an intraday low of 156.51 on the intervention headlines. The 40-year JGB bid-to-cover was 3.1, the highest since 2020, against a one-year average of 2.67. Mimura, via MUFG, said Tokyo and Washington had sent a clear message on yen weakness, and Katayama called the yen's undervaluation a problem.
MUFG: "It is helping to the yen to outperform other G10 currencies in the near-term". Danske Bank: "USD/JPY - Looking for strategic selling opportunities". 2 of 2 banks lean bullish on the yen (28–29 Sep). Lloyds Bank is neutral on the chart and is not counted.
Current scenario: Hike 36.00% / Hold 64.00%. Prior (29 Sep daily): Hike 24.52% / Hold 75.48%. Delta Hike +11.48pp. Meeting 30 Oct. Current rate 1.2500%.
KOF was 109.1 vs 106.0, a beat. USD/CHF closed at 0.83172, up 20.0 pips. SNB hike odds fell 5.01pp to 34.92%. Lloyds has near-term resistance at 0.8333 and risk on last week's low at 0.8184, with 0.8476 still the extension. Over five days USD/CHF is up 1.33% (+109.2 pips).
ING Research: "An October Fed hike could see the USD/CHF rally extend to 0.84-0.85". Lloyds Bank has the rally extending toward 0.8476. Danske Bank had CHF as a relative underperformer with the Scandies. 3 of 3 banks lean bearish (28–29 Sep).
Current scenario: Hike 34.92% / Hold 65.08%. Prior (29 Sep daily): Hike 39.93% / Hold 60.07%. Delta Hike -5.01pp. Meeting 10 Dec. Current rate 0.0000%.
FRED real yield is 2.90% on 28 Sep, +7bp vs 25 Sep and +28bp vs 21 Sep. The 29 Sep print is not out. The notable file has spot gold +1.7% on the session; the market file has no COMEX close, so there is no reference level. MUFG, as context and not a scored call, has gold back above USD 4,140/oz with the 10-year around 5.23%, and down almost 7% in September. That bounce does not fill the missing close.
No gold call is in the 28–29 Sep window, so one bank is not on the page (28–29 Sep). Bank views from earlier packs are not reused.
US 10Y real (DFII10) 28 Sep: 2.90%. 1-day +7bp. 5-day +28bp. Nominal 10Y 5.24%, also +7bp and +28bp, latest observation 28 Sep.
The notable file has WTI Nov -4.0% and Brent Dec -2.0% after Qatar said mediation is ongoing and the US offered up to 40mln barrels from the SPR. The market file has no 29 Sep WTI or Brent close. A vessel was struck in the Strait on 28 Sep (UKMTO). MUFG has WTI around USD 94/b with Brent above USD 107/b, and says officials see limited scope to reopen Hormuz before the US midterms. SEB settled November Brent at $105.28/b.
Bank oil notes are context, not a score. ING Research had Brent at $107 after a $109 touch. The score follows the headlines and the disruption, not the bank line.
No central-bank price for oil. Session move from the notable file: WTI Nov -4.0%, Brent Dec -2.0%.
ES: Bearish, medium conviction. No 29 Sep ES close in the market file. The notable file has the cash S&P 500 down 0.17% to 7,671 and ES Dec down 0.1%, with the 10Y nominal at 5.24% (+7bp on the latest FRED print). Speculators added 7.9pp of shorts. Retail is 52% short, under the line.
NQ: Bearish, low conviction. No 29 Sep NQ close. The notable file has the Nasdaq 100 up 0.21% to 30,339 and NQ Dec up 0.3% on the same yield move. Speculators added 8.8pp of shorts, but retail is 68% short, so the bias is smaller than ES.
No counted equity call in the window. BofA Global Research The Flow Show is dated 25 Sep and is outside it. The notable file also has the Dow down 0.26% to 51,355 and the Russell down 0.35% to 2,808. Natixis saw US indices in the red as the 10-year went through 5.24%.
US 10Y nominal (DGS10) 28 Sep: 5.24%. 1-day +7bp vs 25 Sep. 5-day +28bp vs 21 Sep. The 29 Sep observation was not published at retrieval.
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Neutral. Confidence at 81.9 vs 89.2 and JOLTS at 7.08M vs 7.23M are two medium misses, and October hike odds fell 19.83pp to 50.35%. That outweighs 2 of 2 banks leaning bullish (28–29 Sep). Retail is 76% short USD and cancels the bearish research lean. Speculators barely moved (+1.5pp). Core PCE at 19:30 WIB can move it.Research Score: -1 | -9.7% ShortCOT Score: 0 22 Sep -9.7% Short vs 15 Sep -11.2% Short (+1.5pp). Shorts trimmed 1.5pp, inside the no-signal band. | Short 76%Retail Score: +1 | Neutral 0 |
| EUR | Bearish, low conviction. 2 of 2 counted banks lean bearish (28–29 Sep) and Lagarde took some support off the euro. The ECB move, -1.98pp to 42.31%, is too small to add. Retail is 48% long EUR, under the line, and speculators were flat.Research Score: -1 | -3.2% ShortCOT Score: 0 22 Sep -3.2% Short vs 15 Sep -3.1% Short (-0.2pp). Essentially unchanged. | Short 52%Retail Score: 0 | Bearish -1 |
| GBP | Neutral. The BoE move, -1.78pp to 79.43%, is too small to count, and 1 of 1 banks leans bearish (28–29 Sep), too few for a view. Retail is 52% long GBP, under the line. Speculators were flat.Research Score: 0 | +5.4% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +5.4% Long vs 15 Sep +6.0% Long (-0.6pp). A small long reduction, no signal. | Long 52%Retail Score: 0 | Neutral 0 |
| AUD | Bullish, low conviction. Research leans bearish: 4 of 5 banks (28–29 Sep) after Bullock said a hold was discussed. Positioning is what produces the bullish sum: speculators added 6.8pp of longs and retail is 63% short AUD. CPI at 08:30 WIB decides card 04.Research Score: -1 | +19.2% LongCOT Score: +1 22 Sep +19.2% Long vs 15 Sep +12.4% Long (+6.8pp). Longs grew 6.8pp. | Short 63%Retail Score: +1 | Bullish +1 |
| NZD | Bearish, high conviction. RBNZ hike odds fell 5.73pp to 71.73%, and no bank stated an NZD view (28–29 Sep). Speculators added 3.4pp of shorts and retail is 86% long NZD. Cards 02 and 04 sell NZD.Research Score: -1 | -4.7% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -4.7% Short vs 15 Sep -1.3% Short (-3.4pp). Shorts grew 3.4pp. | Long 86%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -3 |
| CAD | Bearish, high conviction. BoC hike odds fell 6.32pp to 53.88%. Bank coverage is 1 of 1 (28–29 Sep), so it adds nothing further. Speculators added 4.2pp of shorts and retail is 58% long CAD. Cards 01 and 03 sell CAD.Research Score: -1 | -15.1% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -15.1% Short vs 15 Sep -10.9% Short (-4.2pp). Shorts grew 4.2pp. | Long 58%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -3 |
| JPY | Bullish, medium conviction. BoJ hike odds jumped 11.48pp to 36.00%, and 2 of 2 banks lean bullish on the yen (28–29 Sep). Retail is 72% short JPY. Speculators were inside the no-signal band (-2.3pp). Cards 01, 02 and 06 buy the yen.Research Score: +1 | +2.0% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +2.0% Long vs 15 Sep +4.3% Long (-2.3pp). Longs trimmed 2.3pp, no signal. | Short 72%Retail Score: +1 | Bullish +2 |
| CHF | Bearish, high conviction. SNB hike odds fell 5.01pp to 34.92%, and 3 of 3 banks lean bearish (28–29 Sep). Speculators added 3.6pp of shorts and retail is 68% long CHF. CHF is excluded from Section 4.Research Score: -1 | -12.3% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -12.3% Short vs 15 Sep -8.7% Short (-3.6pp). Shorts grew 3.6pp. | Long 68%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -3 |
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Bearish, medium conviction. The real yield is up 7bp on the latest print and 28bp over five days, and no gold call is in the window (28–29 Sep). Retail is 71% long gold. Managed Money is crowded at +30.9% long, so the week-on-week change is left out.Research Score: -1 | +30.9% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +30.9% Long vs 15 Sep +32.5% Long (-1.6pp). Managed Money is crowded above 30% long, so the weekly change is left out. The level is a flush risk. | Long 71%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -2 |
| Oil | Neutral. US–Iran news is on record every day, so the research view follows those headlines: mediation and Trump's "oil prices will tumble" sit next to new sanctions and a Hormuz strike, which is mixed, while the strike itself is a supply disruption. Retail is 61% long WTI and cancels that. Managed Money was flat (+0.1pp).Research Score: +1 | +5.5% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +5.5% Long vs 15 Sep +5.4% Long (+0.1pp). Managed Money flat. | Long 61%Retail Score: -1 | Neutral 0 |
| ES | Bearish, medium conviction. No 29 Sep ES close in the market file. The notable file has the cash S&P 500 down 0.17% to 7,671 and ES Dec down 0.1%, with the 10Y nominal at 5.24% (+7bp on the latest FRED print). Speculators added 7.9pp of shorts. Retail is 52% short, under the line.Research Score: -1 | -19.9% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -19.9% Short vs 15 Sep -12.0% Short (-7.9pp). Shorts grew 7.9pp. | Short 52%Retail Score: 0 | Bearish -2 |
| NQ | Bearish, low conviction. No 29 Sep NQ close. The notable file has the Nasdaq 100 up 0.21% to 30,339 and NQ Dec up 0.3% on the same yield move. Speculators added 8.8pp of shorts, but retail is 68% short, so the bias is smaller than ES.Research Score: -1 | -10.7% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -10.7% Short vs 15 Sep -2.0% Short (-8.8pp). Shorts grew 8.8pp. | Short 68%Retail Score: +1 | Bearish -1 |