FX Daily Research
Official Treasury observations put the US 10-year nominal yield at 5.27% and the real yield at 2.91% on 6 October, each down 4bp versus 5 October’s 5.31% and 2.95%. Over five trading days from 29 September the nominal yield is only +1bp and the real yield is unchanged at 2.91%—moves that stay short of usual daily conviction bars. The supplied wrap (21:50 BST / 16:50 EDT on 6 October, 03:50 WIB on 7 October) showed the S&P 500 up 0.58% near 7,819 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.48% near 31,224 at fresh highs, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.59% to about 2,830. Nasdaq Composite cash was quoted about 0.5% higher; December ES and NQ futures were marked about +0.7% and +0.6% in the same snapshot. Utilities and consumer discretionary led the cash tape; Constellation Energy’s Google power deal was cited as a company-specific utilities boost. Japan’s 10-year auction cleared at 3.10% with a 3.8 bid-to-cover after 3.00%|3.3 previously, and the wrap linked that strong take-up—plus some easing in French fiscal stress—to the global bond bid. DXY was quoted 0.2% lower at 101.85, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD each up about 0.4%, USD/JPY up 0.1%, and CHF only marginally weaker versus the dollar. Sterling’s move above 1.3200 sat inside that softer-dollar tape rather than a standalone UK re-rating.
The bond and equity bid arrived beside, not instead of, hawkish Fed colour. Officials Daly and Schmid argued that inflation still warrants vigilance; Daly warned that tariffs, energy costs and AI-related supply constraints could last longer or compound and might require further tightening. Board-timed speeches from FOMC Bowman (21:45 WIB) and Schmid (00:15 WIB on 7 October) sat on the calendar without scored data prints; MPC Mann (15:30 WIB) was likewise a speech-only line. The US August trade deficit widened to USD 105.6bn versus USD 100.8bn expected on the board (the narrative rounded the forecast to USD 102bn) and USD 92.8bn previously, as imports rose to USD 420.8bn from USD 399.3bn—a material miss for any dollar-supportive trade story. RCM/TIPP economic optimism beat at 46.8 versus 44.5 expected and 45.6 previously. ADP weekly employment rose 23.8K after 22.5K with no forecast on the board. Together the US tape mixed a wider deficit and still-vigilant Fed speak against a confidence beat and a soft-yield, risk-bid equity session.
Euro-area prints were soft across industry and retail. German factory orders fell 10.6% month on month versus −0.9% forecast after a 3.2% prior rise—the sharpest industrial miss on the board and the soft hand-off into German industrial production at 13:00 WIB. French industrial production fell 0.3% versus +0.2% expected after −0.6% previously. Euro-area retail sales rose just 0.1% versus 0.2% expected after −0.6%. The French government budget balance printed −159.6B after −145.9B, with no forecast supplied. French bonds nonetheless caught a breather as immediate fiscal anxiety eased around Le Pen’s draft budget; funding detail remains unclear, so the pause is not a resolution. Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez’s election call for 29 November stays on the political calendar. Despite the soft data stack, the euro gained with the softer dollar—DXY −0.2% at 101.85 and EUR/USD about +0.4% in the wrap—showing dollar beta dominated the euro-area misses on the day. Sterling moved above 1.3200 on the same dollar move ahead of the UK Budget, where potential energy-bill relief and tax choices remain unresolved.
UK Construction PMI rose to 46.1 versus 45.0 expected and 44.3 previously but stayed below 50, so the beat does not restore expansion. Housing equity withdrawal was −6.8B versus −11.9B expected and −10.6B previously—less negative than feared, still a net household draw. Canada split hard: the trade surplus beat at C$4.2B versus C$1.5B expected and C$0.8B previously, while Ivey PMI plunged to 58.2 versus 65.2 expected and 64.3 previously. The soft Ivey is the CAD-relevant miss into US crude inventories at 21:30 WIB. Australia printed without forecasts—Westpac consumer sentiment −4.7% after −5.2%, and ANZ job advertisements +2.2% after +2.6%—so both are directional only. New Zealand NZIER business confidence jumped to 43 from 8, and the GDT price index rose 1.2% after −1.1%, also without forecasts. Japan’s average cash earnings beat at 3.8% versus 3.7% expected but slowed from 4.3% previously. Swiss unemployment held at 3.1%, matching forecast and previous. Commodity FX therefore entered the session with soft Canadian activity, a Canadian trade beat that oil can still override, and Australasian prints that lack consensus anchors on the board.
Oil traded both ways and settled broadly flat even as the earlier 16:50 EDT snapshot showed WTI up about 0.5% and Brent up about 0.7%. The dated settlement tape is the reference: WTI November closed at $89.44, up $0.01, while Brent December was quoted near $100.55 (+$0.23, about +0.2%) as a late quote rather than a verified settlement. Hormuz remains a conflict zone. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said 5.8mn barrels per day were flowing through the East–West pipeline, below its 7mn-barrel capacity, after operations resumed following the strike. Reports of vessel attacks and impeded passage sustain disruption risk, while Qatari and Iranian officials described continuing mediation and willingness to negotiate. In the later supplied screenshot, US Vice President Vance said an end to the war requires Iran to cut nuclear enrichment capacity; he said the US remains open to a deal but wants concrete concessions. These are stated positions, not evidence of an agreement. Spot gold rose about 0.5% in the wrap, consistent with the softer dollar and continuing Gulf uncertainty. US crude oil inventories at 21:30 WIB (forecast 1.9M after a 0.9M prior build) remain the session’s oil-flow gate for Risk On versus Risk Off CAD/AUD legs.
BoJ Governor Ueda (board time 13:35 WIB) reiterated that further rate increases depend on the economic and inflation outlook. Board member Sato supported gradual adjustment without a preset pace and flagged softer consumption alongside upside price risks from Middle East oil costs. That keeps policy normalisation in view without locking the next hike’s date. The yen’s small decline against USD (+0.1% on USD/JPY in the wrap) shows stronger global risk appetite outweighed that gradual-tightening signal for now. Japan’s strong 10-year auction (3.10%|3.8 bid-to-cover) was the bond-market counterpart to that open door. Near-term checks on the supplied calendars: Japan leading indicators at 12:00 WIB; German industrial production and Lloyds HPI at 13:00 WIB; French trade balance at 13:45 WIB; and US crude oil inventories at 21:30 WIB. The wrap also flags remarks from Fed officials Logan and Williams for any shift in the inflation and rate outlook; Australian AIG manufacturing and building approvals plus the RBI rate decision as Asia-Pacific follow-through; and Hormuz shipping plus US–Iran mediation. Medium-term energy markers remain the Wednesday EU Oil Coordination Group meeting and the expected 14–15 October IEA decision on details of a G7 oil and diesel stock release. UK Budget choices on energy-bill relief and tax, and whether French fiscal proposals acquire credible funding detail, stay the European fiscal swing factors.
The US trade deficit widened to −105.6B versus −100.8B expected, while RCM/TIPP optimism beat at 46.8 versus 44.5; the two releases offset for surprise scoring. Official 10-year nominal and real yields each fell 4bp to 5.27% and 2.91%. DXY was quoted 0.2% lower at 101.85 in the wrap even as fund and retail dollar positioning stayed firm.
Danske Bank (6 October 2026) writes: “EUR/USD hit our 12M target of 1.12 ahead of schedule, but we think the downward trend will persist towards 2027.” It stresses that last week’s euro drop was “fundamentally different” from September’s rate-led move because OAT–Bund widening drove euro selling against the whole G10, not only against USD. ING Research (6 October 2026) keeps a December Fed hike as the base case even if October is a hold, provided September core CPI prints near 0.2% MoM, and says that for DXY “developments in the French bond market may matter more” than the light US calendar.
MUFG (6 October 2026) notes EUR/USD “testing support at the 1.1200-level overnight” and sees year-end euro performance depending on French fallout and policy reaction, with risks “skewed toward” further pressure. KBC (6 October 2026) records that the OAT sell-off “took a breather” as the 10-year swap spread narrowed from about 135 bps—a pause, not a clean resolution. Natixis CIB (6 October 2026) had DXY earlier in the week at 102.17 with an intraday high of 102.53. SEB (2 October 2026) and CIBC (2 October 2026) remain the softer-labour counterweights from 2 October; Westpac (5 October 2026) and Crédit Agricole CIB (5 October 2026) stay mixed to neutral in the counted sample.
Fed 28/10/2026: Hold 81.64% / Hike 18.36%. Prior (6 Oct): Hold 78.19% / Hike 21.81%. Hike change -3.45pp.
German factory orders plunged 10.6% versus −0.9% expected, French industrial production contracted 0.3% versus +0.2%, and euro-area retail sales rose only 0.1% versus 0.2%—three misses that score a data lean. The French budget balance widened to −159.6B. The euro still rose about 0.4% against USD in the wrap as the dollar softened, so the tape and the data are not the same story.
Danske Bank (6 October 2026) writes: “EUR/USD hit our 12M target of 1.12 ahead of schedule, but we think the downward trend will persist towards 2027.” It adds that OAT–Bund widening drove euro weakness “not only against USD but also against all other G10 currencies,” and that “we are not very optimistic that the French will be able to solve their budget issues soon.” ING Research (6 October 2026) titles the session around French risk harming ECB hawks and keeps euro weakness as a domestic credibility story.
MUFG (6 October 2026) says EUR/USD was “testing support at the 1.1200-level overnight” and that Spain’s snap election “adds to political uncertainty in Europe.” Nordea (6 October 2026) is the softer counterweight: “The pressure is easing on France,” with EUR/USD stabilising above 1.12 as the OAT–Bund spread tightened, while warning the French 10-year spread to Germany “is still at a very elevated level.” Crédit Agricole CIB (6 October 2026) reviews Lecornu’s 2027 bill targeting “EUR54bn of fiscal savings” aimed at a 5% deficit, after execution data “now tracks at 5.4% of GDP.” Natixis CIB (5 October 2026) and KBC (5 October 2026) keep the broader fiscal-contagion channel in the sample.
ECB 29/10/2026: Hold 76.25% / Hike 23.75%. Prior (6 Oct): Hold 77.62% / Hike 22.38%. Hike change +1.37pp.
Construction PMI rose to 46.1 versus 45.0 but remained below 50. Housing equity withdrawal was less negative at −6.8B versus −11.9B expected—two beats that score a data lean. Sterling gained about 0.4% with the softer dollar and traded above 1.3200 ahead of the UK Budget.
ING Research (6 October 2026) notes that translating euro weakness into a sustained EUR/GBP rally “remains challenging” while elevated oil prices keep downward pressure on Sonia repricing. Crédit Agricole CIB (5 October 2026) still supplies the tactical bullish sterling positioning case from earlier in the window, calling GBP oversold in its own model. KBC (5 October 2026) and MUFG (October 2026) stay neutral in the counted set. Budget headlines on energy-bill relief and tax choices remain the near-term sterling risk the wrap flags.
BoE 05/11/2026: Hold 13.80% / Hike 86.20%. Prior (6 Oct): Hold 14.96% / Hike 85.04%. Hike change +1.16pp.
Westpac consumer sentiment printed −4.7% after −5.2%, and ANZ job advertisements rose 2.2% after 2.6%; neither release had a forecast, so neither enters surprise scoring. In the wrap, AUD had been the G10 currency that earlier edged higher against USD; today’s bank sample remains constructive.
Westpac (5 October 2026) keeps a November RBA hike as the base case unless a lasting Middle East resolution materially lowers Australia’s energy costs, citing cost pass-through, domestic demand pressing on supply, and investment-driven capacity pressure—while seeing a higher bar for subsequent hikes as labour and housing cool. MUFG (October 2026) remains constructive over the medium term after September’s decline. Crédit Agricole CIB (5 October 2026) is neutral on aggregate flows. Pair retail is 80% long AUD/USD, a conflict for any soft-USD AUD long.
RBA 03/11/2026: Hold 74.12% / Hike 25.88%. Prior (6 Oct): Hold 76.80% / Hike 23.20%. Hike change +2.68pp.
NZIER business confidence jumped to 43 from 8, and GDT prices rose 1.2% after −1.1%; both arrived without forecasts. Retail remains extremely long NZD at 86.1%, while funds’ own models still flag a large NZD short—an institutional versus retail split.
Westpac (5 October 2026) sees a bumpy but resilient New Zealand recovery supported by agriculture and export income, with administered prices keeping inflation sticky and a December hike still possible. MUFG (October 2026) remains cautious on high-beta NZD when global yields rise and energy import costs stay high. Crédit Agricole CIB (5 October 2026) still flags NZD as a large aggregate short in its own positioning model, mainly via risk-reversal flows—distinct from the DMX retail composite where traders are overwhelmingly long.
RBNZ 28/10/2026: Hold 48.30% / Hike 51.70%. Prior (6 Oct): Hold 44.93% / Hike 55.07%. Hike change -3.37pp.
Canada’s trade surplus beat at C$4.2B versus C$1.5B, but Ivey PMI missed sharply at 58.2 versus 65.2—one beat and one miss that offset for surprise scoring. The Ivey miss challenges the constructive bank lean and keeps CAD soft in the trade book despite the trade surplus.
MUFG (October 2026) still expects a modest longer-run CAD recovery after the BoC easing cycle ends, while acknowledging near-term growth, tariff and yield headwinds. ING Research (2 October 2026) had left room for modest Canadian tightening if employment rebounds. Crédit Agricole CIB (5 October 2026) records aggregate CAD selling in its positioning model even as some underlying flow categories bought. Pair retail is only 4% long USD/CAD—strong contrarian confirmation for dollar-long / CAD-short expressions. Oil remains the swing factor: a Gulf outage can lift CAD even when domestic data miss.
BoC 28/10/2026: Hold 71.72% / Hike 28.28%. Prior (6 Oct): Hold 69.26% / Hike 30.74%. Hike change -2.46pp.
Average cash earnings beat at 3.8% versus 3.7% but slowed from 4.3%—a single beat that does not meet the surprise threshold. USD/JPY edged up about 0.1% in the wrap as risk appetite outweighed BoJ comments. Leading indicators print at 12:00 WIB.
MUFG (5 October 2026) sees less room for further yen weakness after undervaluation became a political issue for Japanese and US leaders, with the next BoJ hike still more likely in December than as an immediate back-to-back move. The English note is dated 5 October; its Japanese original is dated 30 September. MUFG (6 October 2026) notes JPY gave back recent gains after a GPIF allocation report, even after Prime Minister Takaichi said investors could “rest assured” about fiscal plans. Westpac (5 October 2026) reads Japan’s investment and labour backdrop as consistent with continued normalisation; Crédit Agricole CIB (5 October 2026) and ING Research (2 October 2026) stay neutral. No JPY pair is traded today.
BoJ 30/10/2026: Hold 80.42% / Hike 19.58%. Prior (6 Oct): Hold 79.89% / Hike 20.11%. Hike change -0.53pp.
Unemployment held at 3.1%, matching forecast, so no surprise score. CHF was marginally weaker versus USD in the wrap. European fiscal stress still offers relative support against EUR; CHF pairs stay out of the trade ideas.
KBC (5 October 2026) places CHF in a relative sweet spot when French fiscal stress pushes EUR/CHF lower—a European credibility channel, not a general haven call against every risk asset. MUFG (October 2026) keeps a longer-run recovery case as global yields eventually fall, while admitting higher yields and resilient risk appetite weakened CHF more than expected near term. Crédit Agricole CIB (5 October 2026) is mixed on flows. CHF remains excluded from today’s cards under the house rule.
SNB 10/12/2026: Hold 70.40% / Hike 29.60%. Prior (6 Oct): Hold 72.75% / Hike 27.25%. Hike change +2.35pp.
US 10-year real yields fell 4bp to 2.91%, with no five-day change—moves that stay short of usual daily conviction bars. Spot gold rose about 0.5% in the wrap as the dollar softened and Gulf risk persisted. Retail remains 65% long.
World Gold Council (6 October 2026) reports that “Global central banks remain on pace with gold accumulation this August, with reported net buying totalling 39t,” with China taking the lead followed by Uzbekistan and Poland, and y-t-d reported purchases of 170t. The statistics note is descriptive, not a directional gold call. MUFG (5 October 2026) remains the tactical rates/bearish channel from earlier in the window. Crédit Agricole CIB (2 October 2026) keeps the longer-term diversification case: “We maintain a constructive long-term outlook on gold from current levels.”
US 10Y real yield 2.91%, down 4bp day on day and unchanged over five trading days.
WTI November settled at $89.44, up $0.01. On-record US–Iran remarks in the last five trading days are mixed—mediation continues, but Vice President Vance requires nuclear concessions—so they add no directional news score. Hormuz passage remains impaired; Saudi East–West flows were 5.8mn bpd versus 7mn capacity. US crude inventories print at 21:30 WIB (1.9M after 0.9M).
ING Research (6 October 2026) says “ICE Brent continues to find support around the $100/bbl level, with geopolitical risks outweighing an improvement in the supply picture,” and that nervousness “is likely to persist until there are signs of progress in a deal between the US and Iran.” It also notes Kuwait producing at about 75% of pre-war levels and a reported further East–West pipeline targeting that did not appear to disrupt flows. MUFG (6 October 2026) tracks Middle East shipping and infrastructure risk. Bank oil views are context; the score uses Notable Updates.
Main oil mode from on-record US–Iran remarks in the last five trading days; those remarks are mixed. Gulf shipping disruption is on record. No separate OIL_SUPPLY file—the news comes from Notable Updates. WTI November settled at $89.44.
The wrap showed S&P 500 cash up 0.58% near 7,819 and Nasdaq 100 up 0.48% near 31,224—both shy of a 1% risk-appetite print. The 10-year nominal yield fell 4bp to 5.27%, less than the 5bp move that would score. No index-specific earnings tally was supplied.
Natixis CIB (6 October 2026) describes “Rates and US equities at new highs,” with Brent above $100, the US 10-year earlier near 5.30%, and the NDX posting further gains above 31000 while the VIX stayed near 15.5 against a soaring MOVE—calling the bond–equity divergence “very pronounced.” No ES or NQ earnings tally was supplied, so bank equity colour is narrative only.
US 10Y nominal yield 5.27%, down 4bp. ES and NQ have no earnings tally.
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT — Leveraged Funds / Managed Money | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Bullish, medium conviction. Fed hike probability moved from 21.81% to 18.36% (−3.45pp). The trade deficit widened beyond forecast while consumer optimism beat; the two releases offset. 4 of 9 banks lean bullish and 2 bearish (2–6 Oct), short of a clear majority. COT changed +10.4pp; retail is 75.3% short.Research Score: +0 | +0.7% vs -9.7% (+10.4pp)COT Score: +1 Weekly positioning change. | 24.7% long / 75.3% shortRetail Score: +1 Source observation: 2026-10-07; the FX pair screenshot has no timestamp. | Bullish +2 |
| EUR | Bearish, medium conviction. ECB hike probability moved from 22.38% to 23.75% (+1.37pp). German orders, French output and euro-area retail sales all missed. 5 of 7 banks lean bearish (2–6 Oct). COT changed −1.3pp; retail is 68.9% long. German industrial production at 13:00 WIB is today’s check.Research Score: -1 | -4.6% vs -3.2% (-1.3pp)COT Score: +0 Weekly positioning change. | 68.9% long / 31.1% shortRetail Score: -1 Source observation: 2026-10-07; the FX pair screenshot has no timestamp. | Bearish -2 |
| GBP | Bullish, low conviction. BoE hike probability moved from 85.04% to 86.20% (+1.16pp). Construction PMI and housing equity withdrawal both beat, although construction remains below 50. 1 of 4 banks leans bullish (2–6 Oct). COT changed −3.6pp; retail is 58.4% short.Research Score: +1 | +1.8% vs +5.4% (-3.6pp)COT Score: -1 Weekly positioning change. | 41.6% long / 58.4% shortRetail Score: +1 Source observation: 2026-10-07; the FX pair screenshot has no timestamp. | Bullish +1 |
| AUD | Bullish, medium conviction. RBA hike probability moved from 23.20% to 25.88% (+2.68pp). Consumer sentiment and job advertisements had no forecasts. 2 of 3 banks lean bullish (2–6 Oct). COT changed +0.4pp; retail is 65.3% short.Research Score: +1 | +19.6% vs +19.2% (+0.4pp)COT Score: +0 Weekly positioning change. | 34.7% long / 65.3% shortRetail Score: +1 Source observation: 2026-10-07; the FX pair screenshot has no timestamp. | Bullish +2 |
| NZD | Neutral. RBNZ hike probability moved from 55.07% to 51.70% (−3.37pp). NZIER confidence and GDT prices improved without forecasts. 1 of 3 banks leans bullish and 1 bearish (2–6 Oct). COT changed +3.8pp; retail is 86.1% long.Research Score: +0 | -0.9% vs -4.7% (+3.8pp)COT Score: +1 Weekly positioning change. | 86.1% long / 13.9% shortRetail Score: -1 Source observation: 2026-10-07; the FX pair screenshot has no timestamp. | Neutral +0 |
| CAD | Bearish, low conviction. BoC hike probability moved from 30.74% to 28.28% (−2.46pp). The trade surplus beat but Ivey PMI missed; the releases offset. 2 of 3 banks lean bullish (2–6 Oct), challenged by the Ivey miss. COT changed −5.0pp; retail is 63.9% long. US crude inventories at 21:30 WIB are today’s oil-CAD check.Research Score: +1 | -20.1% vs -15.1% (-5.0pp)COT Score: -1 Weekly positioning change. | 63.9% long / 36.1% shortRetail Score: -1 Source observation: 2026-10-07; the FX pair screenshot has no timestamp. | Bearish -1 |
| JPY | Neutral. BoJ hike probability moved from 20.11% to 19.58% (−0.53pp). Cash earnings beat at 3.8% but slowed from 4.3%. 2 of 4 banks lean bullish (2–6 Oct). COT changed −5.9pp; retail is 70.3% short. No JPY pair is traded today.Research Score: +0 | -3.9% vs +2.0% (-5.9pp)COT Score: -1 Weekly positioning change. | 29.7% long / 70.3% shortRetail Score: +1 Source observation: 2026-10-07; the FX pair screenshot has no timestamp. | Neutral +0 |
| CHF | Bullish, low conviction. SNB hike probability moved from 27.25% to 29.60% (+2.35pp). Unemployment held at 3.1%, matching forecast. 2 of 3 banks lean bullish (2–6 Oct). COT changed +1.9pp; retail is 50.4% long. CHF stays out of the trade ideas.Research Score: +1 | -10.5% vs -12.3% (+1.9pp)COT Score: +0 Weekly positioning change. | 50.4% long / 49.6% shortRetail Score: +0 Source observation: 2026-10-07; the FX pair screenshot has no timestamp. | Bullish +1 |
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT — Leveraged Funds / Managed Money | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | Bearish, low conviction. Real yield fell 4bp in one day and was unchanged over five days. Bank views split 1 bullish and 1 bearish, with the World Gold Council note descriptive (2–6 Oct). Managed money is 29.6% net long; retail is 65.0% long.Research Score: +0 | +29.6% vs +30.9% (-1.3pp)COT Score: +0 Weekly positioning change. | 65.0% long / 35.0% shortRetail Score: -1 Source observation: 2026-10-06 23:21 UTC. | Bearish -1 |
| OIL | Neutral. On-record US–Iran remarks in the last five trading days are mixed, so they add no directional news score. Documented Hormuz disruption and Saudi East–West flows at 5.8mn bpd versus 7mn capacity support oil. COT changed −1.3pp; retail is 61.0% long. Inventories at 21:30 WIB split the risk-on and risk-off cards.Research Score: +1 | +4.2% vs +5.5% (-1.3pp)COT Score: +0 Weekly positioning change. | 61.0% long / 39.0% shortRetail Score: -1 Source observation: 2026-10-05 10:42 UTC. | Neutral +0 |
| ES | Neutral. The cash S&P 500 rose 0.58% and the Nasdaq 100 about 0.48%, both under 1%; the US 10-year yield fell 4bp to 5.27%. No earnings tally was supplied. COT changed +0.2pp; retail is 47.0% long.Research Score: +0 | -19.6% vs -19.9% (+0.2pp)COT Score: +0 Weekly positioning change. | 47.0% long / 53.0% shortRetail Score: +0 Source observation: 2026-10-04 04:53 UTC. | Neutral +0 |
| NQ | Bullish, low conviction. The cash S&P 500 rose 0.58% and the Nasdaq 100 about 0.48%, both under 1%; the US 10-year yield fell 4bp to 5.27%. No earnings tally was supplied. COT changed +1.6pp; retail is 67.0% short.Research Score: +0 | -9.1% vs -10.7% (+1.6pp)COT Score: +0 Weekly positioning change. | 33.0% long / 67.0% shortRetail Score: +1 Source observation: 2026-10-04 04:53 UTC. | Bullish +1 |
COT is net percent of open interest, 29 September vs 22 September, released 2 October. Gold and oil use Managed Money; other rows use Leveraged Funds. FX retail composites use the supplied 7 October pair screenshot without capture time. Gold snapshot is 6 October; oil 5 October; ES/NQ 4 October.