CORE REGIME — US–Canada trade bans and CENTCOM’s destruction of five IRGC-linked tankers keep an energy and risk premium alive into US CPI/PPI and the FOMC. Fed Hike 63.21% is unchanged vs 8 Sep. AUD retains the strongest FX final score (+2); NZD and CHF remain weakest (−3). Scenario Distribution is unchanged versus the 8 September digest across all eight central banks.
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