Nasdaq Pre-Market Research — 10 November 2026

Opening brief

Tuesday, 10 November 2026. Research cutoff: 2026-11-10T13:03:46Z, or 08:03:46 ET / 20:03:46 WIB. Cash trading opens at 09:30 ET / 21:30 WIB; coverage ends at 12:00 ET / 00:00 WIB on 11 November. New York is on EST, making WIB 12 hours ahead. Nasdaq’s official calendar lists a regular session today. Exchange calendar

Lean: cautiously bearish, with low–moderate confidence. Three drivers matter: rising Treasury yields, semiconductor weakness relative to other equities, and fresh concerns about the cost of AI infrastructure. The strongest counterevidence is cheaper oil alongside positive platform-stock prices. This is relative technology weakness, not a confirmed broad liquidation.

The next scheduled macro catalyst is ADP’s weekly employment pulse at 08:15 ET / 20:15 WIB; the dominant event is CPI at 08:30 ET / 20:30 WIB. Both remain pending. Prefer a failed recovery or confirmed downside break after the cash opening range forms. Invalidate the bearish bias if NQ holds above that range with semiconductor participation and reversing Treasury yields. Overnight direction alone supplies no entry. ADP schedule, ADP release convention, BLS calendar

What changed since Monday’s cash close

Policy — verified: Waller’s overnight speech supports a 25-basis-point December hike even if October inflation improves. He says core CPI around 0.3% or higher could warrant considering 50 basis points. That is one policymaker’s position, not an FOMC decision. Federal Reserve speech

Interpretation: Higher discount rates and financing costs challenge long-duration technology valuations. The accompanying rise in yields and NQ’s lag are consistent with that channel, but timing does not prove Waller alone caused either move. A hot CPI would strengthen the mechanism only if yields and equities sustain the corresponding reaction.

Growth — released: NFIB’s October optimism index was 97.8 versus September’s 97.9; uncertainty declined to 84. A comparable consensus and revision were not independently established. This is modest deterioration, insufficient to establish a recession or neutralize inflation concerns. NFIB release

Geopolitics — fresh counterweight: After Monday’s close, Trump described the Iran conflict as militarily effectively over, while the blockade remained in place. This is diplomatic signaling, not verified normalization of shipping. Lower crude can relieve future input costs and household pressure, but cannot retroactively determine October CPI. AP reporting

No independently verified new tariff action after the previous cash close is used as an opening driver. Previously announced trade developments are not presented as overnight surprises.

Cross-asset evidence

Each row carries its own observation timestamp. Futures changes use the provider’s previous reference, whose settlement methodology was not independently verified. Equity/ETF changes compare explicit premarket bars with Monday’s timestamped regular-session closing reference. Prices are USD where applicable.

Yahoo futures/dollar observations are approximately ten minutes behind retrieval; VIX approximately fifteen minutes. Equity bars are recent extended-session observations, with upstream latency unspecified. CNBC/Tradeweb labels yields realtime, but supplies only minute precision: the asterisked seconds are normalization, not known trade seconds. These are non-executable, asynchronous snapshots; VIX is not Nasdaq-specific volatility.

Read-through: Weakness spans several chip leaders, while five large platform names remain positive. That supports selective duration/AI pressure rather than uniform risk aversion. Falling oil has not prevented yields rising. Correlations can change after CPI.

Earnings and AI spending

SoftBank’s newly released July–September IFRS results show revenue of ¥2.215 trillion, versus ¥1.917 trillion a year earlier; parent-attributable loss was ¥1.115 trillion, and basic EPS −¥196.54, versus +¥438.33. Calculated gross margin was approximately 51.6%. Separately, the six-month statement identifies a ¥597.248 billion AI power-equipment procurement realignment loss. Comparable adjusted EPS, consensus and updated guidance were not verified; no beat/miss is assigned. Company financial statement

The plausible Nasdaq channel is financing and project-execution risk, especially around Arm and AI infrastructure. It does not establish falling demand across every chip producer. SoftBank’s Tokyo rally preceded its results, so it cannot be described as a positive earnings reaction. AP chronology

The premarket scan found D-Wave’s released quarterly announcement, while complete comparable figures and guidance for other scheduled reporters were not reconciled. No fresh verified earnings or capex revision from the major platform companies is used to explain their moves. D-Wave announcement

CoreWeave remains pending after the close, with its confirmed call at 17:00 ET / 05:00 WIB on 11 November. Watch revenue conversion, financing, margins and capex funding when released; its unreleased numbers cannot explain today’s observed decline. Company announcement

Catalyst clock

Sources: consensus survey, previous CPI, Cleveland update convention, conference agenda, Houston local time converted to ET, USDA, Treasury, Fed Board, Philadelphia Fed.

Critical CPI qualification: BLS will omit October annual changes wherever October 2025 indexes are unavailable. Do not treat calendar annual forecasts as forthcoming official observations. No October actuals or new revisions were available at cutoff. BLS explanation

No major BLS/BEA release was confirmed for 10:00 ET. Real-earnings consensus and comparable prior figures remain unavailable here. BEA schedule

Interpret inflation jointly with growth: softer prices plus resilient employment and falling yields would favor recovery; weaker employment plus falling equities could instead signal growth concern. Energy-led headline relief with sticky core inflation is not an automatic bullish combination.

Ranked opening scenarios

1. Bearish continuation — preferred, conditional. After CPI, yields remain elevated and chips fail to recover. NQ accepts below the completed 15-minute opening range: consecutive two-minute closes outside it followed by a failed retest, rather than a brief sweep. Watch a break-and-retest short. Invalidate on sustained range re-entry and recovery above the retest swing. Logical objectives are the next verified overnight/prior-session low on your own December-contract feed. Stand aside if price reaches that objective before a viable retest.

2. Two-way auction — close alternative. Mixed CPI components and conflicting leadership leave repeated excursions outside the range that promptly reverse. Watch a failed-break reclaim toward the range midpoint, then the opposite boundary only if rotation persists. Invalidate beyond the failed excursion’s extreme if price begins accepting there. Stand aside in the middle or when either edge establishes sustained acceptance.

3. Bullish recovery/continuation. Benign inflation interpretation, easing yields and recovering semiconductor breadth accompany acceptance above the opening range. Watch a successful retest long, or a downside sweep followed by a sustained reclaim. Invalidate below the reclaimed boundary and structural higher low. Objectives are verified overnight highs and prior-session supply areas. Stand aside if only one heavyweight advances or yields keep climbing.

These rankings are judgments, not statistical probabilities.

Two-minute execution playbook

Use only break-and-retest and failed-break reclaim setups. Define the opening range as 09:30–09:45 ET; it is incomplete before 09:45.

• First five minutes: observe spreads, leadership and the cash response to CPI. Do not chase the opening impulse.
• Minutes 5–15: map developing extremes and swing structure; no completed-range breakout exists yet.
• Minutes 15–60: seek acceptance and a retest, or a sweep with sustained re-entry. Require a structural stop and enough room to the next verified reference.
• Minutes 60–150: reassess around Logan at 10:50 ET. Continue only while structure and participation persist; repeated failed breaks favor standing aside toward lunch.

No contract size or fixed profit target is specified without a risk budget.

No-trade conditions

Stay flat if CPI actuals cannot be verified, spreads/slippage undermine the stop, the market repeatedly crosses the range midpoint, leadership contradicts the setup, or a fresh geopolitical headline overwhelms the thesis. Do not trade a stale public snapshot.

Desk card

• Lean: cautiously bearish; confirmation required.
• Best short: persistent rate pressure, weak chips, downside acceptance and failed retest.
• Best long: easing yields, broader chip recovery and sustained range reclaim.
• Invalidation: accepted opening-range upside with semiconductor confirmation and reversing yields.
• Levels: no independently verified numeric technical levels; quoted prices are snapshots.
• Next timed catalyst: ADP 08:15 ET / 20:15 WIB; dominant CPI 08:30 ET / 20:30 WIB.
• Avoid: first-tick CPI trades, premature range breaks and assumed index-point contributions.
• Conditional edge: align the post-release rates response with semiconductor participation, then require cash-session acceptance.

Data limitations and final refresh

December identity was checked against specific NQ/MNQ symbols and the front-month name. CME lists the next customary roll on 14 December and expiration on 18 December; today is not quarterly roll day. CME calendar

Verified numeric profile, VWAP, order flow, dealer gamma and same-contract session levels are unavailable. Establish overnight and prior cash-session references on your own NQZ6 feed. No institutional-flow or volatility-day-type claim is made.

The final refresh retained pending CPI and ADP status. Delayed NQ snapshots softened from 27,915 to 27,892.75 during research; the bearish tilt did not become an entry signal. The material research correction was excluding unsupported annual CPI forecasts. Metavulus’s calendar, headlines and daily research supplied leads; uncorroborated headlines were excluded. This edition is fixed at its cutoff, not continuously monitored.