CORE REGIME — Soft US inflation became a growth warning as retail sales and sentiment fell, lifting the September Fed hold probability to 68.93%. ECB, RBNZ and BoJ hike distributions remain strong; the RBA delivered a hawkish hold. Iran/Hormuz risk is unresolved into Monday's ceasefire deadline, leaving a calm-market preference for AUD and GBP against USD/CHF but a nonlinear Oil, USD, Gold, JPY and CHF escalation tail.
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