Weekly FX Research
Williams said it seemed "reasonable" that "another rate hike may be appropriate by the end of the year… But we have to see." Barr: "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion." Barkin ("Why Hike?"), Hammack (risks "tilted to the upside") and Paulson ("some modest further tightening may be warranted") added to the hawkish tone; Goolsbee warned supply shocks have become persistent. Jefferson and Schmid made no policy remarks. Regime implication: Fed October hike pricing rose to 62.14% (+10.71pp), the core of the bullish USD view. Source: CB speeches file, 21–25 September.
Nagel said he "cannot exclude" mildly restrictive ECB rates if energy prices persist; the Bundesbank Monthly Report put August HICP at 2.9% and warned energy prices could "delay the return to an inflation rate of 2 %". Lagarde's calendar slots produced no policy content. At the BoE, Breeden ("Do we need to do the first move?"), Lombardelli and Bailey moved toward a first hike; Dhingra was the only dovish voice. Regime implication: BoE Hike 71.62% (+8.41pp) versus ECB Hike 46.38% (-2.58pp) underpins the Sell EUR/GBP card.
The SNB held at 0% on 24 September, softened its FX wording and raised its conditional inflation forecast to 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027 and 2028. RBA Governor Bullock said Australia is "in a situation of excess demand" and that unemployment "between 4.5 and 5" may be needed; Hunter saw inflation risk "skewed to the upside". BoC Governor Macklem held 2.25% with a two-sided outlook. Regime implication: the calendar forecasts an RBA hike to 4.60%; the statement and Wednesday's CPI decide AUD.
US envoys Witkoff and Kushner and Foreign Minister Araghchi held indirect talks on 22 September; Trump called them "very good" and "very productive". Reuters sources described a phased deal (unnamed sources, so not counted). On 24–25 September Araghchi set out a seven-day plan via Qatar: blockade lifted, oil sanctions waived, about $12bn in frozen assets released and a regional ceasefire, with Hormuz reopening and talks resuming at the end of that week. Regime implication: mid-week diplomacy offset part of the escalation, so the five-day oil trend is mixed.
UKMTO reported two tankers hit by projectiles in Hormuz on 21 September; CENTCOM's count of redirected vessels reached 122 by 25 September. On 24 September the coalition intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Taif and Yanbu. Kpler put crude flows out of Hormuz at 33.7 million barrels in the week from 20 September. The recap cites a Brent settle of $104.32 (down $2.28) against WTI at $92.41, a premium of roughly $12. On 27 September the IRGC claimed a second US drone seizure (unconfirmed). Regime implication: on-record Gulf disruption keeps the oil supply premium live.
On 26 September Trump rejected the plan: "I reject their proposal". A US official said discussions through mediators continue. On 27 September Araghchi said Iran would wait for Washington's "definitive views", while Rezaei said the US had "four or five days" to meet Iran's conditions. The recap concludes the week ended "slightly worse" than it started, and Friday's close came before the rejection. Regime implication: the latest on-record headline is a breakdown, so the latest signal for oil is bullish. Source: US–Iran recap, 27 September.
Claims fell to 197K against a 201K forecast and revised UoM sentiment beat at 48.1 (forecast 47.4); the flash manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.0. Every Fed official who addressed policy backed the hike path: Williams called another hike by year-end "reasonable" and Barr said "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed". The US 10Y reached 5.18% (+7bp) and the 10Y real yield 2.85% on 24 September. Core PCE (Wed) and NFP (Fri) gate the week.
Crédit Agricole CIB calls this "the season of the dollar". ING Research: "we remain cautious about calling the end of this USD rally". MUFG: "US dollar can extend gains but rates move highlights danger ahead". Nordea: "we see more room for the USD to perform". SEB: "This is positive for the dollar". Danske Bank only notes "The USD has also strengthened, while equity markets have remained calm" (neutral). 5 of 6 banks lean bullish (25 Sep).
Fed 28 October — Hike 62.14% / Hold 37.86%; prior weekly (21 September digest): Hike 51.43% / Hold 48.57%. Hike odds up 10.71pp: a hawkish repricing.
Flash PMIs split: French services 51.4 and German services 52.9 beat, while French manufacturing 50.3 and German manufacturing 53.8 missed, so the data gave no net signal. Nagel "cannot exclude" mildly restrictive rates and the Bundesbank sees inflation "likely to remain elevated"; Lagarde gave no in-week policy signal. French 10-year yields trade 110bp over Bunds (ING Research).
Crédit Agricole CIB: "We therefore maintain our cautious near-term outlook on EUR/USD". ING Research sees the "1.1320-1.1330 area as the next key support": "For now, we do not think new lows are imminent, but downside risks persist". Nordea: "EUR/USD, in turn, has continued to fall". SEB: France "could become increasingly negative for the euro if the situation deteriorates". MUFG: "downside risks for the euro will continue". KBC Economics: "Technicals favour a return towards the 1.1325 YTD low". Danske Bank (attributed; bank name not printed in this PDF): "EUR/USD - On a structurally declining trend, target 1.12 in 12M". All 7 of 7 banks lean bearish (24–25 Sep).
ECB 29 October — Hold 53.62% / Hike 46.38%; prior weekly (21 September digest): Hold 51.04% / Hike 48.96%. Hike odds down 2.58pp: too small to count as a repricing.
The flash manufacturing PMI beat at 52.0 (forecast 51.5) but services missed at 51.7 (forecast 52.0), a wash. Breeden, Lombardelli and Bailey leaned toward a first hike; Bailey: "It's going to get harder to maintain that stance the longer we have high energy prices." Dhingra was the only dovish voice. GfK confidence improved to -13.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "We maintain a cautious GBP/USD outlook from current levels", but "a potential bout of GBP weakness should not extend to EUR/GBP". KBC Economics: "EUR/GBP found support around 0.845 with first resistance around 0.86 now under test again" (neutral). Danske Bank (attributed; bank name not printed in this PDF): "EUR/GBP - Tactically neutral and strategically bullish" (neutral). Only 1 of 3 banks leans bearish (24–25 Sep): no consensus.
BoE 5 November — Hike 71.62% / Hold 28.38%; prior weekly (21 September digest): Hike 63.21% / Hold 36.79%. Hike odds up 8.41pp: a hawkish repricing.
Employment rebounded 39.5K (forecast 21.5K) but unemployment rose to 4.6% (forecast 4.5%), a mixed labour report. Bullock said Australia is "in a situation of excess demand" and Hunter that "the risk to inflation is skewed to the upside". The calendar forecasts a hike to 4.60% from 4.35% on Tuesday; monthly CPI y/y is forecast at 4.1% (previous 3.5%).
ING Research expects a hawkish 25bp hike: "That should offer some support for AUD". Crédit Agricole CIB: "The risk is that the statement and Bullock are not hawkish enough to support this pricing weighing on the AUD" (mixed; it still favours AUD carry). MUFG: "However, if FX vol picks up further AUD is one that will suffer" (mixed). Westpac notes "the broader picture remains one of a gradually cooling labour market" (not an FX call). Only 1 of 3 banks leans bullish (25 Sep): no consensus.
RBA 29 September — Hold 94.32% / Hike 5.68% with the current rate shown as 4.6000%, so the expected move to 4.60% already sits in the panel base. Prior weekly (21 September digest): Hike 97.40% / Hold 2.60% on the 4.35% base. Bases differ, so the pp change is not comparable.
No medium- or high-impact New Zealand release in the realised week; card spending slowed to 3.5% y/y (low impact). RBNZ hike pricing for 28 October jumped to 81.52%. NZD/USD fell 1.24% over five days to 0.56569.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "this foot-dragging will be a near-term weight on the NZD" (bearish). Natixis CIB only reports "The AUD and NZD were among the worst G10 performers" (descriptive, not counted). Only one bank covered NZD, and it leans bearish (25 Sep): too few for a consensus.
RBNZ 28 October — Hike 81.52% / Hold 18.48%; prior weekly (21 September digest): Hike 59.41% / Hold 40.59%. Hike odds up 22.11pp: a sharp hawkish repricing.
Core retail sales missed (-0.7% vs -0.5%) while headline retail beat (-0.7% vs -0.8%), a split read. Macklem kept 2.25% with a two-sided outlook: "we are prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed". USD/CAD rose 1.11% over five days to 1.41460.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "That leaves the balance of risks rather tilted to the downside for the CAD in the near term". CIBC Capital Markets (macro, not an FX call): "Canada-US trade tensions will not be resolved any time soon". CAD drew a single bank view, bearish (25 Sep): too few for a consensus.
BoC 28 October — Hike 62.07% / Hold 37.93%; prior weekly (21 September digest): Hike 64.19% / Hold 35.81%. Hike odds down 2.12pp: too small to count.
Only low-impact data: the flash manufacturing PMI 54.1 (forecast 55.0) and BoJ core CPI 1.8% (forecast 1.5%); neither moves the view. USD/JPY rose 1.72% over five days to 158.811. The Tankan (Thu 6:50am) and Tokyo core CPI (Fri 6:30am, forecast 2.4%) are the domestic tests.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "The fundamentals remained stacked against the JPY". ING Research: "Without any intervention, a return to above 160.0 levels looks inevitable". MUFG: "JPY appears best placed to benefit in G10 space". Danske Bank (attributed; bank name not printed in this PDF): "USD/JPY - Looking for strategic selling opportunities". Banks split: 2 of 4 lean bearish and 2 of 4 bullish (24–25 Sep).
BoJ 30 October — Hold 65.50% / Hike 34.50% on the 1.2500% base; the prior weekly (21 September digest) Hike 100.00% was the 1.00%-base artifact. Not comparable.
The SNB held at 0.00% as expected and softened its FX wording to "willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary"; the conditional inflation forecast rose to 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% for 2027 and 2028. USD/CHF rose 0.38% over five days to 0.82804. CHF is scored but excluded from Section 4.
ING Research: "We think downside risks remain for the franc". MUFG: "Further encouragement for selling the franc". Danske Bank (attributed; bank name not printed in this PDF): "we see CHF headwinds to continue the coming months". Crédit Agricole CIB sees "the CHF as a favoured funding currency" but limited spot losses (neutral). 3 of 4 banks lean bearish (24–25 Sep).
SNB 10 December — Hold 57.76% / Hike 42.24%; the prior weekly (21 September digest) Hold 87.46% / Hike 12.54% referred to the completed 24 September meeting. Meeting rollover, not comparable.
The US 10Y real (TIPS) yield rose 9bp to 2.85% on 24 September and 24bp over five days (FRED), a headwind on both horizons. COMEX December gold closed at 4321.20 (-2.34% over five days). Hormuz stays closed after Trump's rejection, a haven risk that is noted, not scored.
MUFG: "persistently high Treasury yields and expectations of additional rate hikes remain the key near-term headwinds for gold". Crédit Agricole CIB: "We maintain a constructive long-term outlook on gold from current levels". Reuters (LSEG Data & Analytics) quotes Saxo: "Gold's recent support low around $4,235 is the first level to watch" (not counted). Westpac: "Gold declined 0.3% as higher bond yields weighed on sentiment" (descriptive). Banks split 1 of 2 bearish, 1 of 2 bullish (25 Sep): no consensus.
Fed-linked: Fed 28 October Hike 62.14% (prior 51.43%, +10.71pp). Gold's view rests on real yields: 10Y TIPS 2.85%, +9bp 1D, +24bp 5D (FRED, 24 September).
On-record US–Iran news this week drives the view. The latest headlines, Trump's 26 September rejection ("I reject their proposal") and Rezaei's "four or five days" deadline, are bullish for oil. Over five days the picture is mixed: the 22 September talks and the seven-day plan against the weekend breakdown. Hormuz remains disrupted after the 21 September tanker strikes and the 24 September Houthi missiles at Yanbu. WTI November closed at 92.41 and NYMEX Brent December at 97.44; the recap's $104.32 Brent settle is a different contract.
Bank views are quoted as context only. MUFG: "A credible agreement to reopen Hormuz could materially reduce the geopolitical premium". ING Research: "We may see $110/bbl for Brent before the end of the month". SEB: "the next couple of days could represent a watershed moment in the Iran War". Danske Bank: "Brent oil touched USD108 per barrel on Thursday". Natixis CIB: "Brent up 1.3% at $104.5/bbl".
Fed-linked: Fed 28 October Hike 62.14% (prior 51.43%, +10.71pp). Oil's view rests on US–Iran headlines, not on rate pricing.
ES: Bearish. The US 10Y rose 7bp to 5.18%, a valuation headwind; no S&P 500 earnings beat or miss appears in the inputs, and the day was neither risk-on nor risk-off. ES December closed at 7803.75 (+0.47%, +1.18% over five days). Leveraged Funds deepened their short to -19.9% (-7.9pp), which raises conviction.
NQ: Bearish, with lower conviction than ES. The same 7bp yield rise weighs, and no Nasdaq 100 earnings beat or miss is in the inputs. NQ December closed at 30889.25 (+0.40%, +3.25% over five days). Leveraged Funds added shorts (-10.7%, -8.8pp), but retail is 69% short, a contrarian bullish signal; the two cancel, so conviction stays low.
Bank equity views are quoted as context only. MUFG: "AI correction risks are growing as yields continue to rise". Natixis CIB: "The Magnificent 7 outperformed (+0.7% yesterday)". Danske Bank: "equity markets have remained calm". Reuters (LSEG Data & Analytics): "History suggests US stocks are poised for weakness as the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates".
Fed 28 October Hike 62.14% (prior 51.43%, +10.71pp); US 10Y 5.18%, +7bp 1D, +24bp 5D (FRED, 24 September).
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT - Leveraged Funds | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Bullish. Fed hike odds for 28 October jumped 10.71pp to 62.14%, claims (197K) and revised UoM sentiment (48.1) both beat, and 5 of 6 banks lean bullish (25 Sep). Retail traders are 73% short USD, a contrarian signal that lifts conviction to the maximum; the COT position barely moved (+1.5pp). Core PCE on Wednesday and NFP on Friday (both 7:30pm WIB) can confirm or cut the view. Research Score: +1 | -9.7% vs -11.2% (+1.5pp)COT Score: +0 Speculators trimmed shorts by 1.5pp: too small to signal. | USD 73% shortRetail Score: +1 | Bullish +3 |
| EUR | Bearish, low conviction. ECB hike odds slipped 2.58pp, too little to matter, and the flash PMIs cancelled out (services beat, manufacturing missed). The case rests on the banks: all 7 of 7 lean bearish (24–25 Sep). Retail is 60% short EUR, which argues the other way and holds conviction down (crowding risk); COT is flat at -0.2pp. Research Score: -1 | -3.2% vs -3.1% (-0.2pp)COT Score: +0 Essentially unchanged (-0.2pp): no signal. | EUR 60% shortRetail Score: +1 | Bearish -1 |
| GBP | Bullish, low conviction. BoE hike odds rose 8.41pp to 71.62% as Breeden, Lombardelli and Bailey leaned toward a first hike. The PMIs split and only 1 of 3 banks leans bearish, so there is no bank consensus either way. Retail is 58% long GBP, a contrarian warning that keeps conviction low (crowding risk); COT eased 0.6pp. Research Score: +1 | +5.4% vs +6.0% (-0.6pp)COT Score: +0 A small long reduction (-0.6pp) during the contract roll (OI -22.1%): no signal. | GBP 58% longRetail Score: -1 | Bullish +1 |
| AUD | Neutral. Nothing moved decisively: RBA pricing already embeds the expected hike to 4.60%, so last week's odds are not comparable; the 39.5K jobs beat was offset by unemployment rising to 4.6%; and only 1 of 3 banks leans bullish. Positioning leans bullish, with speculators adding 6.8pp of longs (partly the contract roll) and retail 63% short. The RBA (Tue 11:30am WIB) and CPI (Wed 8:30am WIB) decide the next step. Research Score: +0 | +19.2% vs +12.4% (+6.8pp)COT Score: +1 Longs rose 6.8pp: bullish, though the roll cut OI by 37.8%. | AUD 63% shortRetail Score: +1 | Neutral +0 |
| NZD | Neutral: not enough evidence for a view yet (only one bank covered it). RBNZ hike odds did jump 22.11pp to 81.52%, but no medium- or high-impact data printed and Crédit Agricole CIB's bearish call is the only bank view. Positioning leans bearish: speculators added 3.4pp of net shorts and retail is 86% long. Research Score: +1 | -4.7% vs -1.3% (-3.4pp)COT Score: -1 Shorts grew 3.4pp: bearish (OI -25.0%). | NZD 86% longRetail Score: -1 | Neutral +0 |
| CAD | Neutral. BoC hike odds eased 2.12pp, retail sales split between a headline beat and a core miss, and only one bank covered CAD (bearish), which is not enough evidence for a view yet. Positioning leans bearish, with speculators adding 4.2pp of shorts and retail 59% long. Research Score: +0 | -15.1% vs -10.9% (-4.2pp)COT Score: -1 Shorts grew 4.2pp: bearish. | CAD 59% longRetail Score: -1 | Neutral +0 |
| JPY | Neutral. BoJ pricing now sits on a new rate base, so there is no clean comparison with last week; only low-impact data printed; and the banks split 2 of 4 bearish, 2 of 4 bullish (24–25 Sep). Retail is 71% short JPY, a contrarian lean toward yen strength, while COT slipped 2.3pp with no signal. Intervention risk near 160 is the wildcard. Research Score: +0 | +2.0% vs +4.3% (-2.3pp)COT Score: +0 Longs slipped 2.3pp during the roll (OI -30.2%): no signal. | JPY 71% shortRetail Score: +1 | Neutral +0 |
| CHF | Bearish. The SNB's 0.00% hold brought no surprise and no comparable repricing (last week's odds referred to the 24 September meeting), but 3 of 4 banks lean bearish on the franc (24–25 Sep). Speculators added 3.6pp of shorts and retail is 63% long; both point the same way and raise conviction. Research Score: -1 | -12.3% vs -8.7% (-3.6pp)COT Score: -1 Shorts grew 3.6pp: bearish (OI -22.1%). | CHF 63% longRetail Score: -1 | Bearish -2 |
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Bearish, high conviction. The US 10Y real yield rose 9bp in a day and 24bp over five days to 2.85%, the main headwind for gold, while the banks split 1 of 2 each way (25 Sep). Retail is 75% long, a contrarian warning that raises conviction. Managed Money is crowded long at +30.9%, so it is noted but not counted. Research Score: -1 | Managed Money +30.9% vs +32.5% (-1.6pp)COT Score: +0 Managed Money long is crowded above 30%, so it is noted but not counted. | Gold 75% longRetail Score: -1 | Bearish -3 |
| Oil | Bullish, low conviction. On-record US–Iran news this week drives the view: Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan on 26 September and Rezaei gave the US "four or five days", after a mixed week that included the 22 September talks; tanker strikes and Houthi missiles keep Gulf supply disrupted. Retail is 56% long, a contrarian warning that lowers conviction (crowding risk); Managed Money barely moved (+0.1pp). Research Score: +1 | Managed Money +5.5% vs +5.4% (+0.1pp)COT Score: +0 Almost unchanged (+0.1pp): no signal. | Oil 56% longRetail Score: -1 | Bullish +1 |
| ES | Bearish. The US 10Y rose 7bp to 5.18%, a valuation headwind; no S&P 500 earnings beat or miss appears in the inputs, and the day was neither risk-on nor risk-off. ES December closed at 7803.75 (+0.47%, +1.18% over five days). Leveraged Funds deepened their short to -19.9% (-7.9pp), which raises conviction. Research Score: -1 | Leveraged Funds -19.9% vs -12.0% (-7.9pp)COT Score: -1 Leveraged Funds added 7.9pp of shorts: bearish (OI -22.7%). | ES 50% longRetail Score: +0 | Bearish -2 |
| NQ | Bearish, with lower conviction than ES. The same 7bp yield rise weighs, and no Nasdaq 100 earnings beat or miss is in the inputs. NQ December closed at 30889.25 (+0.40%, +3.25% over five days). Leveraged Funds added shorts (-10.7%, -8.8pp), but retail is 69% short, a contrarian bullish signal; the two cancel, so conviction stays low. Research Score: -1 | Leveraged Funds -10.7% vs -2.0% (-8.8pp)COT Score: -1 Leveraged Funds added 8.8pp of shorts: bearish. | NQ 69% shortRetail Score: +1 | Bearish -1 |
Cross-asset retail: Trader Sentiments dashboard, last updated 2026-09-27 13:11 UTC (20:11 WIB); FX composites equal-weight seven pair observations per currency. FX-pair and pricing capture times were not supplied. COT: CFTC positions of 22 September vs 15 September (released 25 September); open interest fell sharply for AUD, NZD, GBP, JPY, CHF and ES on the quarterly contract roll, so part of the net-% moves reflects lower OI.