Daily ResearchENLive

13 November 2026

FX Daily Research

Higher real yields weigh on gold and equities as Gulf shipping risk lifts crude. US PPI at 20:30 WIB tests the rate move.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 1 — Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Thursday US session · Friday market setup

Actual vs Forecast vs Previous · 12–13 November

United States (USD)

Initial jobless claims: 200K vs 194K vs 191K. Weekly claims rose while the four-week average remained at 195,250. The Labor Department revised the prior week up from 189K. A separate market consensus was 195K. Both comparisons show a softer labour print. → Bearish USD
Continuing claims: 1.697M vs 1.710M vs 1.717M. Fewer continuing claims moderate the signal from higher initial filings. The insured unemployment rate was 1.1%. The longer-duration measure can improve even when new layoffs rise during a single week. → Bullish USD
Existing-home sales: 3.75M vs 3.89M vs 3.97M. Sales missed both the 3.89M calendar median and a separate 3.85M market estimate. The fall shows where higher mortgage rates constrain demand even while the Fed remains concerned about inflation. → Bearish USD
EIA crude inventories, million barrels: +4.7M vs -0.6M vs -0.9M. A large build loosened the domestic prompt balance. Rounded calendar values and the separate market survey are detailed in Notable Updates. The oil assessment also weighs Gulf supply. → Neutral USD
30-year Treasury auction yield / bid-to-cover: 5.44% / 2.4x vs — vs 5.62% / 2.5x. The auction cleared at a lower yield with slightly weaker coverage. The stop and the bid ratio capture different aspects of demand. A lower stop on its own is insufficient to call the auction stronger. → Neutral USD
Federal budget balance: -404.1B vs -298.6B vs -26.9B. The deficit exceeded expectations. A single monthly reading is sensitive to the calendar of receipts and payments. It adds context for issuance and term premium, while US price data remain the immediate rate catalyst. → Bearish USD

United Kingdom (GBP)

September GDP m/m: 0.2% vs 0.0% vs 0.0%. The economy expanded against expectations for no growth. August was revised to flat, which matters for the starting point. The improvement is stronger on the monthly comparison than on the quarterly surprise. → Bullish GBP
Preliminary GDP q/q: 0.7% vs 0.7% vs 0.5%. The quarter accelerated in line with expectations. It raises the level of activity entering the next quarter, with a limited incremental policy message from the headline. → Neutral GBP
Preliminary GDP y/y: 1.9% vs 1.9% vs 1.4%. Annual growth improved and matched consensus. This is a second comparison of the same GDP release. → Neutral GBP
Construction output m/m: 0.8% vs 0.0% vs -0.5%. A reversal from contraction broadens the output gains beyond services. → Bullish GBP
Goods trade balance: -22.3B vs -19.2B vs -19.6B. A larger deficit tempers the domestic output improvement through weaker net trade. → Bearish GBP
Services index 3m/3m: 0.9% vs 0.9% vs 0.9%. Steady services growth keeps the largest part of the economy expanding. → Neutral GBP
Industrial production m/m: 0.3% vs -0.4% vs 0.7%. Output avoided the expected contraction, with slower growth than previously. → Bullish GBP
Manufacturing production m/m: 0.7% vs -0.5% vs 0.7%. Factory output maintained its prior pace, a positive surprise beneath headline GDP. → Bullish GBP
Preliminary business investment q/q: 0.4% vs 0.4% vs 1.8%. Investment expanded more slowly, raising the importance of whether consumption and services hold up. → Neutral GBP
RICS house-price balance, prior edition: -36% vs -33% vs -34%. The previously reported survey remains a sign of mortgage sensitivity. → Neutral GBP

Australia (AUD)

MI inflation expectations, prior edition: 5.3% vs — vs 5.3%. Household expectations held steady. Persistence warrants attention given higher energy costs and weak housing finance. → Neutral AUD
Conference Board leading index m/m: 0.0% vs — vs -0.5%. The indicator stopped falling. A stabilisation in leading data can coexist with weaker credit, since the measures cover different channels. → Neutral AUD

New Zealand (NZD)

Visitor arrivals m/m, prior edition: 2.6% vs — vs 3.0%. Arrivals continued to grow at a slower pace, keeping tourism activity supportive without a consensus surprise. → Neutral NZD
BusinessNZ manufacturing index: 54.9 vs — vs 56.3. The sector remains in expansion while losing momentum. This is a domestic counterweight to any relief from softer US yields. → Neutral NZD

Canada (CAD)

Building permits m/m: -4.1% vs -4.0% vs 7.6%. The sequential reversal matters more for the construction pipeline than the small miss itself. Friday’s sales data give a separate read on activity. → Bearish CAD

Japan (JPY)

PPI y/y, prior edition: 7.1% vs 6.5% vs 6.8%. The earlier upside surprise is relevant to BoJ normalisation and imported costs. Its market test is whether short rates narrow the US–Japan gap. → Neutral JPY

US session and Friday transmission

Treasuries and the dollar

Higher real yields tightened conditions. T-note futures settled lower and the curve bear-flattened. Official US 2-year yields rose from 4.73% to 4.86%, slightly more than the 10-year rise from 4.98% to 5.10%. The 2s10s spread narrowed from 25 bp to 24 bp. The 10-year nominal yield rose 12 bp versus the last official observation and 20 bp over five trading observations. The real yield reached 2.86%, up 8 bp and 22 bp on those horizons. Veterans Day left the intervening cash observation blank. The nominal-minus-real spread was 2.24%, up 4 bp from 2.20%, so real yields accounted for most of the nominal move. DXY gained 0.26% to 103.18. Reuters quoted gold down 2.77% at USD 3,877.04/oz. Together, those moves show that the market paid more for dollar carry even as risk appetite weakened. A broad decline in producer prices would matter most if short rates and real yields give back part of that move. Treasury nominal · Treasury real · Reuters

Claims, housing and the Fed reaction

The Labor Department put unadjusted initial claims at 206,982, up 28,870 or 16.2%, compared with a seasonal increase of 19,663 or 11.0%. Unadjusted continuing claims rose by 10,117 to 1,503,556 versus a seasonal expectation for a rise of 27,466. The two measures point to weaker new claims and better persistence after adjustment. Existing-home sales at 3.75M give a clearer illustration of the interest-sensitive slowdown. Cleveland’s Hammack at 20:30 WIB on Thursday called for a restrictive setting and preferred steady moves. Chicago’s Goolsbee at 23:15 WIB urged vigilance on overheating. Early Friday, Daly at 01:10 WIB leaned toward further tightening and Schmid at 01:30 WIB flagged remaining price pressure alongside hiring headwinds. The 00:30 WIB Nagel and 02:30 WIB Lagarde appearances provided ECB context. These are separate signals on urgency, pace and economic sensitivity. The USD response shows inflation urgency currently has more influence than the weaker housing release. US Labor Department · NAR

Cash breadth, futures and the chip rotation

The S&P 500 closed at 7,592.40 (-0.35%) and the Nasdaq 100 at 28,289.19 (-0.30%). The Dow fell 0.36% to 52,297.09, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.39% to 25,366.09, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.66% to 2,799.06. Weak equal-weight performance shows the pressure was wider than Nvidia, even as energy and communication services outperformed. Materials and technology lagged. December ES and NQ vendor settlements were 7,615.25 (-0.33%) and 28,384.50 (-0.31%). A matching exchange-confirmed settlement for this session is unavailable. Nvidia fell as much as 14% before the open, then recovered part of the drop. CFO Colette Kress took over as interim CEO and Harvey Jones became chair. AMD and Broadcom benefited from a chip rotation, while weak Nebius guidance weighed on specialist AI cloud names after CoreWeave’s earlier results. Nvidia earnings on 17 November can clarify operating demand separately from governance risk. Congressional scrutiny of China chip exports adds a separate risk to access and sales. Nvidia filing · AP cash indices · Nasdaq index history

Gulf access and domestic inventories

December WTI settled at USD 88.74/bbl, up 2.55%, and January Brent at USD 95.82/bbl, up 3.30%. Trump said Washington did not need a deal and redirected Vance toward domestic priorities. CENTCOM said it was implementing blockade orders and trying to facilitate commercial traffic. UKMTO reported a tanker incident. Houthi claims concerning Saudi export infrastructure remain claims, while the Saudi-led coalition confirmed interception of a drone near Riyadh. Reports near Sirik diverged between warning shots and a military strike. The Bandar Lengeh claim is unconfirmed. EIA reported a 4.657M-barrel US crude build, versus a market expectation for a 1.1M draw and a prior 0.865M draw. The calendar comparison rounds the actual to 4.7M and has a separate 0.6M draw forecast. The inventory surprise and the settlement direction show that exporters’ access to shipping mattered more than US stocks during this session. A verified rise in commercial transit could reduce that premium and bring the domestic build back into focus. Reuters · Oil settlements

FX levels and public policy

ECB-reference EUR/USD was 1.10810 (-0.41%), GBP/USD 1.32556 (-0.39%), AUD/USD 0.68208 (-0.56%) and NZD/USD 0.55566 (-0.48%). USD/CAD was 1.42487 (+0.10%), USD/JPY 159.69678 (+0.29%) and USD/CHF 0.83314 (+0.39%). These are reference rates. The late Reuters quote put USD/JPY at 159.85 after the pair briefly cleared 160.00. Kazāks’ call for a likely December hike offered limited support to EUR, and UK quarterly GDP matched forecasts despite a monthly beat. The fiscal deficit exceeded expectations while the long bond auction drew slightly weaker coverage. On Ukraine, Witkoff and the Kremlin said talks would continue and Witkoff indicated Europeans would join the next meeting. Any spillover to European energy costs depends on concrete progress. ECB reference rates

Next-meeting pricing · Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA

Fed · 09/12/2026 · Hike 100.00% vs 100.00% previously (+0.00 pp). Hold 0.00% vs 0.00%. Current rate 3.8750%. Implied move +27.71 bp. ECB · 17/12/2026 · Hike 78.63% vs 76.48% previously (+2.15 pp). Hold 21.37% vs 23.52%. Current rate 2.5000%. Implied move +20.03 bp. BoE · 17/12/2026 · Hike 80.47% vs 70.88% previously (+9.59 pp). Hold 19.53% vs 29.12%. Current rate 4.0000%. Implied move +20.52 bp. RBA · 08/12/2026 · Hike 9.45% vs 7.75% previously (+1.70 pp). Hold 90.55% vs 92.25%. Current rate 4.8500%. Implied move +1.83 bp. The Fed’s probability of any hike is unchanged, while the expected change in basis points rose. The next-meeting horizons match across editions. The later forward rows cover different meeting dates and are not directly comparable across banks.

Next-meeting pricing · RBNZ, BoC, BoJ, SNB

RBNZ · 09/12/2026 · Hike 80.55% vs 76.41% previously (+4.14 pp). Hold 19.45% vs 23.59%. Current rate 2.7500%. Implied move +20.54 bp. BoC · 09/12/2026 · Hike 60.39% vs 45.53% previously (+14.86 pp). Hold 39.61% vs 54.47%. Current rate 2.5000%. Implied move +15.24 bp. BoJ · 18/12/2026 · Hike 74.64% vs 72.03% previously (+2.61 pp). Hold 25.36% vs 27.97%. Current rate 1.2500%. Implied move +18.99 bp. SNB · 10/12/2026 · Hike 20.69% vs 16.85% previously (+3.84 pp). Hold 79.31% vs 83.15%. Current rate 0.0000%. Implied move +4.79 bp. The largest changes in this set were the BoC and the BoE among all eight banks. These comparisons refer to each bank’s same next meeting across editions.

Friday’s sequence

At 14:00 WIB German wholesale prices are expected at 0.4%. Swiss PPI at 14:30 WIB is expected at 0.2%, followed by final French CPI at 14:45 WIB at 0.4%. Italian trade at 16:00 WIB is seen at 2.84B. At 17:00 WIB euro-area employment, GDP and trade are expected at 0.2%, 0.4% and -4.5B. At 20:30 WIB Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales are seen at 0.1% and 0.5%, alongside US core and headline PPI at 0.3% and 0.4%. Collins follows around 21:10 WIB, the UK leading index at 21:30 WIB, Logan at 21:40 WIB, Barr at 22:00 WIB, US gas storage at 22:30 WIB (65B), Bowman at 22:50 WIB and Nagel at 23:00 WIB. China’s tentative M2 and lending estimates are 7.2% and 80B. US mortgage delinquencies are tentative. South Korean money supply, Peru’s central-bank decision and Australian bond supply are additional watch items. Gulf shipping and Saudi infrastructure remain unscheduled risks. BLS calendar · Eurostat calendar

Commercial stocks and strategic reserves

US commercial crude stocks reached 414.417M barrels. The earlier API estimate pointed to a larger build of 9.0M barrels, so the official reading offered some relief against that early indication while still exceeding draw expectations. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 279.535M barrels from 282.184M. These series describe different pools of supply. The reserve decline can coincide with higher commercial inventories, and neither establishes how much crude Gulf buyers can access. Brent’s larger percentage gain is consistent with traders putting a higher value on internationally deliverable barrels. EIA weekly petroleum series

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 2 — FX, Commodities & US Equity

Independent research · Institutional window 10–12 November

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Fed tightening keeps the dollar bid. The dollar extended its advance after the earlier CPI beat and Waller’s openness to faster tightening. Hammack argued that policy still needs to move into restrictive territory. Daly leaned toward further tightening and Goolsbee stressed overheating risks. The nominal US 10-year yield reached 5.10%, up 12 bp from the last official reading before Veterans Day. The real yield gained 8 bp to 2.86%. Higher inflation-adjusted returns help explain why the dollar held its bid even as equities weakened.

Initial claims rose to 200K, while continuing claims fell to 1.697M. Existing-home sales dropped to 3.75M. Housing is already sensitive to higher borrowing costs, but these reports show neither a broad rise in persistent unemployment nor a reversal in the inflation story. At 20:30 WIB, broad producer-price strength and a fresh rise in short yields would support the dollar. A softer core reading and falling short yields would put the advance under pressure, even if higher oil keeps headline prices elevated.

Institution Commentaries

Rates, with a changing equity backdrop. ING (12 November 2026) calls this “a rates-driven move” and finds the dollar’s short-term valuation stretch limited outside EUR. MUFG (12 November 2026) puts the rebound in the US 2-year yield at around 33 bp from the previous week’s low, still below its September peak of 4.96%. Danske Bank (12 November 2026) points to wider real swap spreads and an additional boost from the earlier tech rebound. Westpac (12 November 2026) also saw the dollar rise alongside AI shares before Thursday’s selloff. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) links broader gains to expectations for higher rates. The timing matters because the dollar held up after the equity catalyst reversed.

Direction and size of the next Fed move. Natixis (12 November 2026) retains a 25 bp base case despite another core CPI beat of 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. Scotiabank Economics (12 November 2026) hears hawkish language without broad support for a larger step. Standard Chartered (11 November 2026) says “the data are not yet definitive” for a 50 bp move and cautions against inferring a trend from short moving averages. SEB (11 November 2026) emphasises broad price pressure across services, rents and goods. Crédit Agricole CIB (10 November 2026) evaluates the CPI surprise through inflation-linked rates. Citi Wealth (10 November 2026) reports that the share of CPI components rising at least 5% increased to 56% from 44%, a breadth argument for further tightening. UniCredit (10 November 2026) puts US fiscal and energy policy in the inflation backdrop, while KBC Economics (12 November 2026) tracks the market response. The distinction is between persistent rate support and evidence for a specific December hike size.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

Fed · 09/12/2026 · Hike 100.00% vs 100.00% previously (+0.00 pp). Hold 0.00% vs 0.00%. Current rate 3.8750%. Implied move +27.71 bp.

Research bias: Bullish near term, with moderate confidence. Rates explain the dollar’s resilience across different equity sessions. The view weakens if softer pipeline inflation compresses the US short-rate advantage.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

ECB tightening talk met a stronger US rate impulse. Kazāks said a December increase was likely, yet EUR/USD fell. The euro has some support from the ECB’s inflation reaction, but the latest US selloff in Treasuries raised the return on dollar assets more forcefully. A further rise in Gulf energy prices would add to euro-area input costs and could weaken activity even as it raises headline inflation.

At 17:00 WIB the region publishes GDP, employment and trade. The distinction is between demand resilient enough to support wages and a price shock that erodes household purchasing power. A broad activity beat accompanied by stronger euro front-end yields would challenge the downside call. Producer-price strength in the US at 20:30 WIB could still dominate if the relative rates move widens again.

Institution Commentaries

Near-term rate divergence. ING (12 November 2026) sees “material risk of testing 1.100” after roughly 15 bp of widening in the 2-year swap differential over five sessions. Near-term undervaluation of almost 2% tempers downside at that level. Makhlouf’s caution about an energy-centred price shock contrasts with Kazāks’ greater willingness to tighten. Danske Bank (12 November 2026) highlights the wider real swap gap as EUR/USD slipped below 1.11. MUFG (12 November 2026) connects the cross with Fed repricing. The earlier market snapshots from Natixis (12 November 2026) and Westpac (12 November 2026) confirm euro weakness alongside a bid for the dollar, despite the equity rebound at the time.

Domestic and longer-horizon qualifications. Crédit Agricole CIB (10 November 2026) examines European inflation and fiscal risks. The Investment Institute by UniCredit (10 November 2026) identifies euro-denominated AI debt issuance as a capital-market development. Citi Wealth (10 November 2026) discusses European exposure in its broader allocation analysis. KBC Economics (12 November 2026) reports that a break of its 1.1111 reference after “Faster than expected US October CPI”. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) reports the euro at 1.1087 in the earlier dollar upswing. These channels matter for growth, funding and rates on different horizons. A bilateral reversal still requires improvement in the relative return on euro assets.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

ECB · 17/12/2026 · Hike 78.63% vs 76.48% previously (+2.15 pp). Hold 21.37% vs 23.52%. Current rate 2.5000%. Implied move +20.03 bp.

Research bias: Bearish against USD near term, with moderate confidence. The euro has domestic rate support, but a material narrowing of the short-rate differential is needed for a durable reversal.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

The monthly GDP beat improves the composition, but the quarter was priced in. September GDP grew 0.2% against a flat forecast. Quarterly growth of 0.7% and annual growth of 1.9% matched expectations. Manufacturing and construction beat, while the goods deficit widened to GBP 22.3B. The mix improves the assessment of domestic output and leaves external leakage as a drag. GBP/USD still weakened during the US session.

The housing survey’s -36% and slower business investment give the Bank of England reasons to weigh demand as well as inflation. With no equivalent UK data catalyst to match the US PPI at 20:30 WIB, sterling can hold up on selected crosses while the dollar sets the tone in cable. The UK leading index at 21:30 WIB helps test persistence. A sustained relative front-end move would provide a clearer directional signal.

Institution Commentaries

Resilience across sectors. Lloyds Bank (12 November 2026) reports that “Services remained the main driver of quarterly growth” and notes that September beat its own 0.1% estimate. August’s downward revision explains why the stronger September figure still left quarterly growth below its 0.8% call. MUFG (12 November 2026) sees broader demand than AI alone, forecasts 1.6% growth in both 2026 and 2027, and expects headline inflation around 4.5% at its peak as energy bills rise. The quarterly result matched the MPC’s projection. Natixis (12 November 2026) distinguishes the monthly surprise from the strong quarter. Danske Bank (12 November 2026) had already seen evidence of a solid quarter in consumer spending indicators and PMIs.

Winter demand and the muted price reaction. ING (12 November 2026) argues “growth is likely to slow through the winter” as rising inflation bears on households, despite support from IT and professional services. Scotiabank Economics (12 November 2026) sees consumption growth of 0.6% and import growth of 1.8% and says sterling and gilts treated the release as backward-looking. Westpac (12 November 2026) saw US rate support carry over into cable. Crédit Agricole CIB (12 November 2026) examines sterling’s sensitivity to cross-asset risk, Citi Wealth (10 November 2026) treats the UK in its allocation context, and KBC Economics (12 November 2026) saw a small early sterling lift after the GDP composition, with the EUR/GBP cross already trading through former support. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) reports sterling down to 1.3270 during the earlier broad dollar advance. These observations leave room for UK outperformance on crosses even if cable follows US rates.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

BoE · 17/12/2026 · Hike 80.47% vs 70.88% previously (+9.59 pp). Hold 19.53% vs 29.12%. Current rate 4.0000%. Implied move +20.52 bp.

Research bias: Neutral with moderate confidence. The domestic growth improvement supports selective crosses, while the expected quarterly result and firmer US yields limit the case for broad sterling appreciation.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

US yield pressure meets weaker Australian credit. Higher real Treasury yields increase the cost of funding exposure to cyclical currencies. Australian household inflation expectations held at 5.3%, while the leading index improved to 0.0% from -0.5%. That mix gives the RBA reasons for caution in both directions. It offers limited evidence of accelerating local demand capable of offsetting higher US real rates.

The tentative Chinese money and credit releases matter through demand expectations and regional equity sentiment. A sustained improvement in both would help AUD, particularly if Australian bond supply is absorbed without a rise in global risk premiums. At 20:30 WIB a firm US core PPI and rising front-end yields would reinforce the existing pressure. A yield reversal with broader equity participation would weaken the case.

Institution Commentaries

Local credit and global sensitivity. Westpac (12 November 2026) says approvals were “mostly volume-driven” in their deterioration: value fell 15.5%, the largest drop in the series back to 1991, with investor lending down nearly a third. It also tracked an earlier AUD/USD quote around 0.6850. Danske Bank (11 November 2026) identifies AUD among currencies that “led the losses within G10” after the jump in US real rates following CPI. Natixis (10 November 2026) records AUD/USD near 0.69 in an earlier risk rebound, demonstrating how quickly relief can feed through when global conditions improve. Domestic credit weakness raises the hurdle for that relief to persist.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

RBA · 08/12/2026 · Hike 9.45% vs 7.75% previously (+1.70 pp). Hold 90.55% vs 92.25%. Current rate 4.8500%. Implied move +1.83 bp.

Research bias: Bearish against USD, with moderate confidence. Housing finance weakness and exposure to higher real rates outweigh steady inflation expectations. A broad risk recovery accompanied by lower US yields would challenge the call.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

The kiwi faces a weaker marginal activity signal. BusinessNZ manufacturing fell to 54.9 from 56.3 at 04:30 WIB. The survey still describes expansion, but a slower pace reduces confidence that local momentum can absorb tighter global funding conditions. Visitor arrivals grew 2.6% after 3.0%, so the tourism signal remains positive with less acceleration. Neither release had a published consensus.

NZD is sensitive to a rise in real US yields through relative carry and confidence in global demand. The simultaneous decline in small caps and pressure on technology matter because a narrow recovery leaves less support for a cyclical currency. A Chinese credit improvement and falling US yields after 20:30 WIB could offset this pressure if the rebound extends across regional growth assets.

Institution Commentaries

A rebound reference and its limits. Natixis (10 November 2026) called NZD/USD and AUD/USD “the top G10 performers” in the earlier risk recovery and put NZD/USD near 0.561. Danske Bank (10 November 2026) also found that “NZD, SEK and AUD led the gains” when the broad dollar gave back earlier gains, noting that falling energy prices were part of that session’s cross-asset backdrop. These dated observations establish sensitivity to risk appetite and the broad dollar. Neither supplies a fresh bilateral target after the manufacturing release. With manufacturing still in expansion, any further deterioration would need to show up in other activity evidence to support a stronger view.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

RBNZ · 09/12/2026 · Hike 80.55% vs 76.41% previously (+4.14 pp). Hold 19.45% vs 23.59%. Current rate 2.7500%. Implied move +20.54 bp.

Research bias: Bearish against USD, with low confidence. A slowdown within expansion and tighter US funding lean in the same direction. A sustained improvement in growth-sensitive FX would challenge that reading.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Costlier oil helped the terms-of-trade argument, while domestic permits disappointed. Building permits fell 4.1%, slightly worse than the 4.0% decline expected, reversing the prior 7.6% gain. The rebound in crude improves the export-price channel, but the reason for the rebound matters. A disruption premium can raise costs and hurt global activity even as Canada earns more per exported barrel.

At 20:30 WIB Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales arrive alongside US PPI. A broad Canadian beat could support CAD if local yields respond. If US producer prices are firm and Canadian sales disappoint, the relative growth and short-rate channels would point the same way. If crude holds up but CAD fails to strengthen as US yields rise, the exchange rate is responding more to the dollar than to the export-price improvement.

Institution Commentaries

Export exposure and domestic caution. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) saw the Canadian equity rebound benefit from oil and AI even as USD/CAD rose to 1.4248. Natixis (10 November 2026) found that Canada’s “leading index rose by 0.02%” versus 0.08% expected. Danske Bank (10 November 2026) previously linked CAD weakness relative to other cyclicals to the slide in energy prices. Crédit Agricole CIB (12 November 2026) identifies CAD among currencies with “significant positive correlations” to its risk index, a historical relationship whose sign and timing need to be read with the index construction. Scotiabank Economics (12 November 2026) reports spillover from US tightening expectations into Canadian rates, with 13 bp priced for the December BoC move in its dated snapshot. The evidence allows oil support without presuming it dominates bilateral FX.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

BoC · 09/12/2026 · Hike 60.39% vs 45.53% previously (+14.86 pp). Hold 39.61% vs 54.47%. Current rate 2.5000%. Implied move +15.24 bp.

Research bias: Bearish against USD with low confidence. The permits reversal and wider US rate advantage currently outweigh oil support. Stronger Canadian sales with a firmer local rates response could change that balance.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Higher US yields drove the approach to 160.00. USD/JPY briefly crossed that level before retreating, with Reuters later quoting 159.85. The reversal reflects sensitivity to possible official action. A confirmed rate check or intervention would materially change the near-term risk around the pair. Until then, the rate differential remains the stronger explanation for the yen’s weak starting point.

Japan’s PPI rose 7.1% y/y against 6.5% expected and 6.8% previously. Higher imported energy and currency weakness can squeeze corporate margins before the gains translate into wages or domestic demand. This strengthens the case for monitoring BoJ normalisation without assuming a stronger yen immediately. A soft US PPI at 20:30 WIB would help if front-end yield spreads compress.

Institution Commentaries

Rates and intervention asymmetry. MUFG (12 November 2026) describes the “historically sensitive 160–163 range” and argues that hawkish Fed repricing outweighed BoJ support. Danske Bank (12 November 2026) says “high oil prices and AI-related demand pushed up prices” and connects the PPI acceleration to fuel and semiconductors and reports yen-based import prices up 24.8% y/y. ING (11 November 2026) emphasised the near-term possibility of official pushback around the upper end of the range. Natixis (12 November 2026) and Westpac (12 November 2026) describe the weaker yen against the backdrop of a stronger dollar. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) places USD/JPY at 159.86 in its earlier market reading. That chronology makes the reversal consequential without turning speculation into policy action.

Fiscal and subsidy transmission. Crédit Agricole CIB (12 November 2026) distinguishes the Takaichi administration’s policy framework from a single discrete trigger for selling Japan. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities (11 November 2026) estimates energy subsidy changes take about 0.06 pp off core CPI in FY26 and add roughly 0.26 pp in FY27. Those effects work over different horizons from the day’s FX reversal and help separate imported cost pressure from domestic policy effects.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

BoJ · 18/12/2026 · Hike 74.64% vs 72.03% previously (+2.61 pp). Hold 25.36% vs 27.97%. Current rate 1.2500%. Implied move +18.99 bp.

Research bias: Bearish against USD with moderate confidence. The US rate gap drives the base case. Wholesale inflation, BoJ normalisation and intervention risk make further yen weakness less linear around 160.00.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

A defensive backdrop can still favour the dollar. Gulf shipping risk increased and equities fell, but higher US real yields leave CHF with a weaker carry position against USD. The key test is whether risk aversion begins to pull Treasury yields down. Rising yields alongside equity weakness are a tougher combination for the franc than a conventional bond rally driven by safety demand.

Swiss producer prices at 14:30 WIB offer a domestic inflation check. The US release at 20:30 WIB matters for USD/CHF through the relative yield path. If Swiss pipeline prices surprise higher while US core PPI softens and Treasury yields decline, the direction becomes less clear. A purely energy-driven increase would have less weight than evidence of broad domestic price pressure.

Institution Commentaries

Higher-rate sensitivity and different risk regimes. ING (11 November 2026) said “the Swiss franc this year always suffers in a higher interest rate environment” in its analysis of Fed-driven flattening. Danske Bank (10 November 2026) said “Safe-haven CHF was also under pressure” when equities recovered earlier in the week, a separate risk-appetite channel. Crédit Agricole CIB (12 November 2026) includes CHF among currencies with significant links to its risk index. The relevant distinction is between an inflation shock that lifts US yields and an abrupt growth scare that drives demand for lower-risk assets.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

SNB · 10/12/2026 · Hike 20.69% vs 16.85% previously (+3.84 pp). Hold 79.31% vs 83.15%. Current rate 0.0000%. Implied move +4.79 bp.

Research bias: Bearish against USD with low confidence. A durable fall in US yields alongside stronger demand for defensive assets would put the franc on firmer footing.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Real yields were the dominant headwind. The official US 10-year real yield rose 8 bp to 2.86% from the last pre-holiday observation. Reuters quoted spot gold down 2.77% at USD 3,877.04/oz. Inflation-adjusted returns on government debt rose in a session with renewed geopolitical risk. The price action shows how the real-rate channel can dominate gold even when investors are cautious about risk elsewhere.

At 20:30 WIB the most informative response to PPI is the change in inflation-adjusted yields. An energy-led surprise can lift nominal yields and inflation expectations together, producing a smaller real-rate change. Broad core pressure accompanied by higher real yields would extend the headwind. A reversal in real yields would improve the case for stabilisation after the selloff.

Institution Commentaries

Short-term rates and longer-term demand. ING (12 November 2026) says “higher rates and a stronger dollar could continue to weigh on gold in the near term” while remaining constructive over a longer horizon given official buying. MUFG (12 November 2026) observed an earlier spot quote of USD 3,988 and linked weakness to expectations of tighter policy. Natixis (12 November 2026) attributes the decline partly to “rising real yields”. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) also points to policy expectations and reports analysts’ observations about central-bank buying. Westpac (12 November 2026) discusses the metal as part of a split commodity session. The distinction is between the observed opportunity cost today and support that could re-emerge once yields stabilise.

Broader context. Crédit Agricole CIB (12 November 2026) treats the gold decline as one input into cross-asset risk. Syz (11 November 2026) discusses unusual US bullion export flows. Citi Wealth (10 November 2026) places gold in a portfolio resilience discussion. These perspectives address the metal’s wider role while the current research call follows the real-rate move.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

US producer prices are the next scheduled test for real yields.

Research bias: Bearish near term, with high confidence in the real-yield explanation. A sustained reversal in real yields would warrant reassessment. Central-bank demand matters on a longer horizon.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

The Gulf supply premium rebuilt. December WTI rose 2.55% to USD 88.74 and January Brent gained 3.30% to USD 95.82. President Trump said Washington did not need a deal and redirected Vance to domestic priorities. CENTCOM described implementation of blockade orders while trying to facilitate commercial transit. UKMTO reported a tanker incident. Developments over the last five trading days keep the condition of shipping and export routes central to the near-term outlook.

The US crude build of 4.657M barrels against an expected 1.1M draw points to weaker prompt US balances. It increases the downside if shipping normalises, even as uncertainty over Sirik and Saudi infrastructure raises the value of immediate supply. Claims of attacks on Saudi assets do not yet establish a loss of export capacity. Persistent disruption, verified transit recovery and the next inventory figures would affect different parts of the balance.

Institution Commentaries

Production recovery versus accessible exports. ING (12 November 2026) cites OPEC crude output at 27.16M b/d after an increase of almost 2M b/d and identifies “the pace of normalisation through Hormuz” as decisive. MUFG (12 November 2026) sees a looser balance as Saudi and Iraqi production recovers, while diplomacy keeps a premium in prompt oil. Its earlier Brent close of USD 92.76 predates the latest rally. Danske Bank (12 November 2026) saw limited downside after geopolitical concerns had eased. Westpac (12 November 2026) describes tentative stabilisation and limited negotiating progress. Export access determines how much of the production improvement can reach buyers.

Diplomacy and operational risk. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) quotes the UBS assessment that “Oil prices are being supported by fading hopes of an imminent de-escalation” and discusses the lag between political progress and safe shipping. Natixis (11 November 2026) separates the hardening of Tehran’s terms from earlier diplomatic optimism. UniCredit (10 November 2026) puts energy exposure in a broader US policy reassessment, and Scotiabank Economics (12 November 2026) follows the near-term implications for inflation and rates. SEB (11 November 2026) said earlier shipping attacks were keeping some of the premium in place despite hopes of an end to the conflict. Crédit Agricole CIB (12 November 2026) flagged renewed escalation as a risk to the earlier oil decline. KBC Economics (12 November 2026) saw oil and gas begin to stabilise after a sharp slide. A durable drop in the premium needs evidence of both calmer policy and more reliable transit.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

January Brent and December WTI refer to distinct delivery months.

Research bias: Bullish near term with moderate confidence. The latest shipping and diplomacy developments dominate the immediate balance. Rising output, the US stock build and a verified improvement in transit leave the premium vulnerable to reversal.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

ES: Weak breadth matters more than the headline index decline. The S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the Russell 2000 lost 1.66%, and the equal-weight S&P ETF fell. Energy and communication services outperformed, while materials and technology lagged. Higher nominal yields affect a wider set of balance sheets through financing costs and put pressure on the valuation of future cash flows. Small-cap weakness helps distinguish the wider move from a single large technology stock.

ES: At 20:30 WIB lower producer prices could ease the discount-rate pressure. A recovery would carry more weight if equal-weight and smaller firms participate alongside energy-sensitive sectors. An index bounce concentrated in a few large names would leave the breadth problem largely intact, while another oil spike would threaten margins outside the energy complex.

NQ: Leadership risk and cloud guidance are distinct pressures. The Nasdaq 100 lost 0.30%. Nvidia fell as much as 14% before the open after the leadership news and pared some losses. Colette Kress became interim CEO, with earnings scheduled for 17 November. AMD and Broadcom benefited from the rotation within semiconductors. In a separate channel, weak Nebius guidance reduced confidence in the specialist AI cloud names that had rebounded following CoreWeave’s results.

Congressional scrutiny of chip exports to China adds uncertainty around the sales opportunity independent of the CEO transition. Softer US PPI at 20:30 WIB would ease valuation pressure if yields fall. A fuller reversal would also require chip and cloud breadth to improve, because lower discount rates cannot resolve leadership, demand or export-policy uncertainty on their own.

Institution Commentaries

ES: The prior rebound and the breadth question. Westpac (12 November 2026) saw “Renewed optimism around AI” underpin the prior rally. Danske Bank (12 November 2026) describes a wider preceding equity advance before the Nvidia leadership catalyst. Natixis (12 November 2026) records a sharp rebound before the leadership news became dominant. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) highlights corporate updates across industries. Citi Wealth (10 November 2026) evaluates the role of macro conditions and fundamentals in equity allocation, while Crédit Agricole CIB (12 November 2026) observes changes in the balance of cyclical and defensive equity performance. SEB (11 November 2026) records the earlier S&P 500 decline of 0.4% after hot CPI, while Scotiabank Economics (12 November 2026) saw broad futures weakness before the leadership decision. The Thursday session shows that a rebound in the index can be vulnerable when participation outside its leaders weakens.

NQ: AI demand can hold up while listed companies reprice. Natixis (12 November 2026) records CoreWeave rising 24% and Nvidia rising 4% in the prior rebound before the leadership story took over. Westpac (12 November 2026) traces that rally to CoreWeave and the Anthropic IPO. Danske Bank (12 November 2026) flagged the impending board decision before it was announced. Reuters / LSEG (12 November 2026) highlights “strong demand for its AI networking gear” in the Cisco preview and points to chip-equipment demand. Syz (11 November 2026) examines the balance between rapid AI infrastructure growth and financing costs. SEB (11 November 2026) recorded a 0.7% Nasdaq decline during the earlier CPI reaction. Scotiabank Economics (12 November 2026) tracked weaker Nasdaq futures before the board decision, while KBC Economics (12 November 2026) anticipated a partial reversal of the tech rebound as leadership reports emerged. This helps explain why the same session can contain strong demand for selected hardware and weaker equity prices for some operators.

NQ: Capital expenditure and financing. The Investment Institute by UniCredit (10 November 2026) documents hyperscaler issuance of USD 192B this year versus USD 93B last year, a capital-spending channel with rate sensitivity. ING (10 November 2026) describes spillovers to European suppliers despite a loss of market share. Citi Wealth (10 November 2026) considers the AI investment cycle in the context of earnings and allocation. Crédit Agricole CIB (12 November 2026) observes a decline in AI equity prices within a wider risk comparison. These views explain how the cost of funding can change the equity response even when end demand persists.

Market Pricing · Rate expectations

Cash indices and December futures are separate series.

Research bias: ES: Bearish with moderate confidence. Higher yields and weak participation point to pressure beyond a single stock. A broad recovery with lower yields would challenge the view. NQ: Bearish with moderate confidence. Management and guidance risks coincide with higher yields, while strength in competing chipmakers limits the case for treating the move as a uniform AI demand shock.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 3 — Research, COT & Retail Positioning

Research and positioning · 12 markets

G10 FX Scorecard

Market	Research and positioning	COT — Leveraged Funds / Managed Money	Retail Sentiment	Combined Bias
USD	Bullish research follows higher US real yields and hawkish Fed language, with claims and housing supplying the counterweight. Leveraged funds changed little and retail short exposure reinforces the rate view, leaving a Bullish combined bias with medium conviction ahead of PPI. Research coverage: 13 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: +1	+6.7% vs +6.5% (+0.2pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	24.0% long / 76.0% shortRetail Score: +1 13 Nov · DMX	Bullish +2
EUR	Bearish research reflects the relative US rate impulse even after Kazāks signalled a likely increase. Futures positioning changed modestly and retail is long, adding to the downside reading and leaving a Bearish combined bias with medium conviction before euro-area activity data. Research coverage: 10 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	-9.0% vs -8.2% (-0.7pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	66.1% long / 33.9% shortRetail Score: -1 13 Nov · DMX	Bearish -2
GBP	Neutral research balances the monthly output beat against in-line quarterly GDP, trade leakage and a firmer dollar. A material increase in leveraged-fund net longs and a retail short skew together leave a Bullish combined bias with medium conviction, most clearly expressed on selected crosses. Research coverage: 11 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: +0	+10.9% vs +6.8% (+4.1pp)COT Score: +1 Material weekly net-long increase.	32.4% long / 67.6% shortRetail Score: +1 13 Nov · DMX	Bullish +2
AUD	Bearish research weighs weak housing credit and higher US real yields against steady household inflation expectations. Leveraged funds changed little and the composite retail long share adds downside, yielding a Bearish combined bias with medium conviction sensitive to any improvement in Chinese credit. Research coverage: 3 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	+15.2% vs +14.9% (+0.4pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	59.7% long / 40.3% shortRetail Score: -1 13 Nov · DMX	Bearish -2
NZD	Bearish research follows a slowdown in domestic manufacturing alongside tighter dollar funding conditions. The weekly futures reading barely changed, while the largest retail long skew among these currencies reinforces downside and leaves a Bearish combined bias with medium conviction. Research coverage: 2 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	-17.5% vs -17.5% (+0.0pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	75.3% long / 24.7% shortRetail Score: -1 13 Nov · DMX	Bearish -2
CAD	Bearish research gives more immediate weight to weak permits and US rates than to the improvement in oil export prices. The futures shift is modest and the retail composite is long, leaving a Bearish combined bias with medium conviction ahead of simultaneous Canadian and US data. Research coverage: 5 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	-24.8% vs -26.8% (+2.1pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	56.3% long / 43.7% shortRetail Score: -1 13 Nov · DMX	Bearish -2
JPY	Bearish research follows the rate gap with meaningful reversal risk around 160.00. Leveraged funds changed little and the retail short skew offsets the research direction, leaving the combined bias Neutral. The stock and Treasury moves show a defensive tone without a broad flight into bonds. Research coverage: 8 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	-3.9% vs -3.9% (+0.0pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	36.7% long / 63.3% shortRetail Score: +1 13 Nov · DMX	Neutral +0
CHF	Bearish research gives greater weight to higher US real yields than to defensive demand for francs. Futures changes are small and retail is close to balanced, leaving a Bearish combined bias with low conviction that is sensitive to an actual Treasury rally. Research coverage: 3 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	-12.7% vs -12.9% (+0.3pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	49.4% long / 50.6% shortRetail Score: +0 13 Nov · DMX	Bearish -1

Cross-Asset Scorecard

Market	Research and positioning	COT — Leveraged Funds / Managed Money	Retail Sentiment	Combined Bias
GOLD	Bearish research reflects higher US real yields across both the latest and five-session comparisons. Managed Money trimmed exposure slightly and a substantial retail long skew reinforces the downside reading, producing a Bearish combined bias with medium conviction ahead of US PPI. Research coverage: 8 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	+26.0% vs +26.6% (-0.6pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	75.0% long / 25.0% shortRetail Score: -1 13 Nov · 06:31 WIB	Bearish -2
OIL	Bullish research follows renewed Gulf access risk and higher settlements despite the EIA build. Managed Money changed modestly, while a retail long skew offsets the research direction and leaves the combined bias Neutral. Transit and outright prices can still move sharply around new on-record developments. Research coverage: 11 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: +1	+1.1% vs +1.7% (-0.5pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	66.0% long / 34.0% shortRetail Score: -1 12 Nov · 17:07 WIB	Neutral +0
ES	Bearish research follows weak equal-weight participation and a higher discount rate across the broader market. Leveraged funds reduced net shorts modestly and index retail is balanced, leaving a Bearish combined bias with low conviction. A broader recovery after PPI would test that reading. Research coverage: 8 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	-18.7% vs -20.5% (+1.7pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	48.0% long / 52.0% shortRetail Score: +0 13 Nov · 06:55 WIB	Bearish -1
NQ	Bearish research reflects Nvidia governance risk and weaker specialist cloud guidance alongside rising yields. Leveraged funds added some exposure and the broker-index retail reading is near balance, leaving a Bearish combined bias with low conviction despite rotation into competing chipmakers. Research coverage: 12 institutions and market monitors.Research Score: -1	+3.4% vs +0.9% (+2.6pp)COT Score: +0 Small weekly change.	46.0% long / 54.0% shortRetail Score: +0 13 Nov · 06:55 WIB	Bearish -1

Futures positions as of 3 November compared with 27 October, released 6 November. FX and equity futures use Leveraged Funds. Gold and oil use Managed Money. Retail FX is an equal-weight composite of seven pairs per currency. The ES and NQ retail readings are broker-index proxies. A balanced index reading can coexist with a clear directional research view. Oil and JPY illustrate how opposite positioning can neutralise the combined result without changing the underlying economic assessment.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 4 — Risk-On / Risk-Off Trade Ideas

Score Divergence and either/or US PPI scenarios

Score Divergence

Thesis

A wider US rate advantage keeps EUR/USD under pressure even as Kazāks supports further ECB tightening.

EUR bearish against USD bullish

Triggers

Before the US release, require the pair to fail on a recovery toward 1.1111, the reference highlighted by KBC Economics on 12 November. The failure is more meaningful if European front-end yields lag their US equivalents and the rejection survives the next retest.
At 17:00 WIB, compare euro-area GDP with 0.4% and employment with 0.2%. A weak bundle or a limited EUR yield response keeps the initial thesis live. At 20:30 WIB, require the US PPI reaction to preserve the rate advantage before extending exposure.

Invalidation

Stand aside on a sustained reclaim of 1.1111 accompanied by a narrower US–Europe front-end spread. A euro-area activity beat supported by firm local yields is enough to pause before the US release.
After US PPI, exit the thesis if softer core inflation lowers US yields and EUR/USD holds the recovery. If price tests 1.100, ING’s 12 November support area, require fresh downside confirmation before extending the idea.

Main Risks

A hot headline driven by energy can lift inflation expectations and the euro-area tightening case together. Treat the transatlantic rates reaction as the deciding market confirmation.
This expresses the same USD direction as Buy USD/CAD and the hot-PPI AUD branch. If dollar follow-through weakens, avoid treating the other dollar legs as independent confirmation.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Confirmation. EUR/USD retail is 89% long and 11% short. The skew supports a contrarian short, while entry still requires a rejected recovery and supportive rates.

Thesis

Weak Canadian permits leave USD/CAD supported by higher US yields even as a Gulf-driven oil rally helps Canadian export prices.

USD bullish against CAD bearish

Triggers

Look for a shallow pullback that holds around the earlier 1.4248 level described by Reuters / LSEG on 12 November. The level is a reference for acceptance. An intraday print that immediately reverses does little to show sustained demand for USD.
At 20:30 WIB, compare Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales with 0.1% and 0.5% while checking US PPI. Weak domestic sales plus stronger US short yields would make it easier for the pair to hold a higher range despite the oil bid.

Invalidation

A broad Canadian beat and stronger domestic front-end yields would undermine the demand-side case. A sustained rejection below 1.4248 after the releases adds price confirmation to that invalidation.
If crude extends its rally and CAD strengthens alongside Canadian rates, pause even if the initial US headline looks firm. Watch whether the US rate advantage recovers before revisiting the idea.

Main Risks

The simultaneous data create two distinct catalysts. Strong US prices and equally strong Canadian activity can produce a volatile first move with limited lasting advantage for either currency.
A new Gulf supply problem can lift oil before growth expectations adjust. In that setting CAD could trade on export prices or follow a wider defensive move, so confirm the relative yield and FX reactions together.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Confirmation. USD/CAD retail is 90% short and 10% long. The long case has a pronounced contrarian tailwind when the release and price responses also align.

Thesis

Resilient UK output helps sterling on crosses while higher energy costs complicate the euro-area growth outlook.

EUR bearish against GBP bullish

Triggers

Look for a recovery attempt that stalls below 0.86, the former support highlighted by KBC Economics on 12 November. A lower rebound accompanied by a resilient UK–euro short-rate spread is stronger evidence than a brief price dip in thin trading.
The 17:00 WIB activity bundle should show whether euro-area demand can challenge the cross. GDP at or below 0.4% and little improvement in local yields favour a renewed downside test, especially if sterling holds up outside its USD pair.

Invalidation

A sustained recovery above 0.86 alongside a broad euro-area beat or a stronger euro front-end yield response removes the relative case. Reassess after the European release rather than using a short-lived breach alone.
The UK leading index at 21:30 WIB can expose fresh weakness in domestic demand. If sterling weakens on more than one cross and gilts follow, the previous GDP resilience is insufficient support for this entry.

Main Risks

Energy inflation affects both central banks and can bring euro yields up even as growth slows. The exchange rate can respond first to yield differentials rather than the growth comparison.
This cross shares its long sterling exposure with the soft-PPI branch. If the UK data turn sterling-specific weakness into the main driver, the two expressions can deteriorate together even without a dollar move.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Confirmation. Retail EUR/GBP is 93% long and 7% short. The asymmetry supports a short only while the recovery fails and relative rates remain favourable.

Risk On Trades

Thesis

UK output resilience supports sterling against a kiwi facing slower factory expansion, if softer US prices improve market breadth.

GBP bullish against NZD bearish

Triggers

Either/or at 20:30 WIB. Require core PPI below 0.3% and headline PPI below 0.4%, followed by falling US front-end yields and firmer equity futures. An in-line or mixed release leaves both scenario cards inactive. The Score Divergence ideas keep their own triggers.
After the first release move, require GBP/NZD to hold a higher range and sterling to keep its relative bid across other crosses. A broad equity rebound is the risk confirmation. NZD still needs to lag GBP for this particular cross to qualify.

Invalidation

Stand aside if a softer US print triggers a stronger kiwi rebound. Earlier risk relief took NZD/USD toward 0.561 according to Natixis on 10 November, illustrating how quickly this channel can offset the UK growth advantage.
Invalidate the branch if the cross gives back its post-release gains and a weak UK leading index at 21:30 WIB pushes sterling lower broadly. A reversal in equities or US yields also removes the initial risk-on confirmation.

Main Risks

The softer-inflation trade can benefit cyclical FX more than sterling. Demand evidence from China or an unusually broad recovery in commodity currencies could shift the relative move against this cross.
The conditional long adds sterling exposure already present in Sell EUR/GBP. Weak UK data can affect both, while the hot-PPI branch has a mutually exclusive release condition.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Confirmation. GBP/NZD retail is 69% short and 31% long. The skew helps the long case after the data and relative currency response align.

Risk Off Trades

Thesis

Soft Australian housing credit leaves AUD vulnerable if hot US producer prices lift short yields and pressure cyclical assets.

AUD bearish against USD bullish

Triggers

Either/or at 20:30 WIB. Require core PPI above 0.3% and headline PPI above 0.4%, with US short yields rising and equity futures weakening. In-line or mixed data leave both branches inactive. The first move should show broader selling in cyclical FX.
Require an AUD/USD rebound attempt to fail as US yields hold their gain. Westpac’s 12 November reference near 0.6850 is useful if the move retests that area. A decline caused by one headline alone needs follow-through in the pair and rates.

Invalidation

Cancel the branch if short Treasury yields fall back and AUD/USD sustains a recovery after the release. An energy-heavy surprise has less persistence if the details show weaker underlying pressure and the first dollar bid fades.
Stand aside if a stronger Chinese credit update improves regional demand expectations enough for AUD to outperform. The cross-asset test is whether the Aussie remains weak after the first US rate response.

Main Risks

A large headline can reflect energy costs without producing the same rate reaction as broad core pressure. If equities stabilise and short yields give back the move, the defensive confirmation has ended.
This shares its long dollar exposure with Sell EUR/USD and Buy USD/CAD. The same yield reversal can invalidate several positions, so use the weakest confirming leg as a reason to reduce overlap.

Pair Retail Confirmation or Conflict

Confirmation. AUD/USD retail is 76% long and 24% short. The skew reinforces the downside after the hot data and market confirmation arrive.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 5 — Today’s Key Risk Events

Friday, 13 November · all times WIB (UTC+7)

Active Geopolitical Risk

GEO

Hormuz and Saudi export infrastructure LIVE

Focus

Monitor official shipping advisories, confirmed changes in commercial transit, and the operating status of Saudi export routes. Accounts of the Sirik incident differ.

Market Read

A verified disruption can raise crude prices and make the Canadian dollar response more sensitive to whether export prices or defensive demand dominate. Better passage would remove some support for oil. The two scheduled trade scenarios remain tied to US PPI.

Today’s calendar · all times WIB (UTC+7)

FRI

Friday, 13 November · PPI is the main scheduled test HIGH

Key Data

LOW14:00 WIB EUR — German wholesale prices m/m; Forecast 0.4%, Previous 1.9%. Hot / soft scenario: A broad upside surprise with higher euro yields tests Score Divergence 01 and 03. Further cooling favours those ideas if their price conditions hold.
LOW14:30 WIB CHF — Swiss PPI m/m; Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.3%. Hot / soft scenario: Hotter prices could firm Swiss yields. A soft reading would do the reverse. Context only.
LOW14:45 WIB EUR — French final CPI m/m; Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.4%. Hot / soft scenario: A higher revision with firmer euro yields challenges Score Divergence 01 and 03. A softer revision leaves the pair-level triggers in focus.
LOW16:00 WIB EUR — Italian trade balance; Forecast 2.84B, Previous 1.77B. Hot / soft scenario: A larger surplus driven by exports would improve the demand signal and test Score Divergence 03. A weak result makes the regional bundle more important.
LOW17:00 WIB EUR — Euro-area flash employment q/q; Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1%. Hot / soft scenario: A beat alongside strong GDP and higher euro short yields challenges Score Divergence 01 and 03. A miss lends support if both crosses confirm.
LOW17:00 WIB EUR — Euro-area flash GDP q/q; Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.4%. Hot / soft scenario: A stronger activity bundle and euro yield response can invalidate Score Divergence 01 and 03. In-line or weak activity preserves their relative-rate case.
LOW17:00 WIB EUR — Euro-area trade balance; Forecast -4.5B, Previous -6.8B. Hot / soft scenario: A smaller deficit helps EUR if exports lead. A wider deficit or weak imports reinforces caution on demand and tests Score Divergence 03.
LOW20:30 WIB CAD — Canadian manufacturing sales m/m; Forecast 0.1%, Previous 1.5%. Hot / soft scenario: A beat with firmer Canadian yields challenges Score Divergence 02. A miss supports it if US short yields hold through the simultaneous PPI release.
LOW20:30 WIB CAD — Canadian wholesale sales m/m; Forecast 0.5%, Previous -1.6%. Hot / soft scenario: A broad Canadian beat across manufacturing and wholesale is a stronger invalidation risk for Score Divergence 02. A weak rebound keeps the domestic slowdown in focus.
HIGH20:30 WIB USD — US core PPI m/m; Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.7%. Hot / soft scenario: Above 0.3% with headline above 0.4% tests Risk Off 05 if short yields rise and equities weaken. Below both forecasts with falling yields and firmer equities tests Risk On 04, subject to GBP outperforming NZD.
HIGH20:30 WIB USD — US headline PPI m/m; Forecast 0.4%, Previous 1.3%. Hot / soft scenario: An energy-only surprise or a mixed core and headline outcome keeps Risk On 04 and Risk Off 05 inactive. If both are in line, only Score Divergence 01–03 remain eligible at their own conditions.
LOW21:10 WIB USD — Boston Fed President Collins, scheduled opening remarks; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: The housing conference may offer a read on borrowing constraints. A restrictive message with rising yields tests Score Divergence 01–02 and any active Risk Off 05. A cautious message with lower yields cuts the confirmation.
LOW21:30 WIB GBP — UK Conference Board leading index m/m; Forecast —, Previous -0.1%. Hot / soft scenario: Improvement helps the sterling leg of Score Divergence 03 and any active Risk On 04. Deterioration that pulls down gilts and sterling tests both.
LOW21:40 WIB USD — Dallas Fed President Logan, bank funding conference; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: Hawkish policy remarks that reinforce the yield response help Score Divergence 01–02 and any active Risk Off 05. Softer remarks would test the rate support.
LOW22:00 WIB USD — Fed Governor Barr, AI and inequality; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: An economic or hiring comment matters to Score Divergence 01–02 only if short yields react. A narrow discussion of distributional effects is context only.
LOW22:30 WIB USD — EIA natural gas storage, billion cubic feet; Forecast 65B, Previous 77B. Hot / soft scenario: A smaller build could lift gas prices and a larger build could ease them. Context only for the inflation backdrop.
LOW22:50 WIB USD — Fed Vice Chair Bowman, supervision and regulation; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: A policy comment that changes Treasury pricing tests Score Divergence 01–02. Technical remarks on bank regulation have a narrower market read-through.
LOW23:00 WIB EUR — Bundesbank President Nagel; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: Greater urgency to tighten could help EUR and challenge Score Divergence 01 and 03. Emphasis on energy pass-through without domestic breadth would offer less support.
LOWTentative CNY — China M2 money supply y/y; Forecast 7.2%, Previous 7.2%. Hot / soft scenario: An upside print alongside improving credit could challenge Risk Off 05 and force a stronger NZD confirmation for Risk On 04. Weak money growth supports the cyclical caution.
LOWTentative CNY — China new yuan loans; Forecast 80B, Previous 1080B. Hot / soft scenario: A large beat with regional follow-through could support AUD and NZD, challenging Risk Off 05 and the sterling-relative confirmation for Risk On 04. A weak print is insufficient to activate either branch.
LOWTentative USD — US mortgage delinquencies; Forecast —, Previous 4.37%. Hot / soft scenario: A higher reading could challenge Score Divergence 01–02 if markets mark down US rates. A lower reading supports the view that housing weakness remains contained.
LOWAll day OIL — Hormuz transit and Gulf supply; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: An on-record interruption would test USD/CAD in Score Divergence 02 through oil and risk appetite. Verified improvement would reduce the supply premium. No WTI card is active.
LOWTentative KRW — South Korean money supply; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: Context only. A meaningful change would need to feed through to broader regional yields or demand.
LOWTentative PEN — Peru central-bank decision; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: Context only. A meaningful change would need to feed through to broader regional yields or demand.
LOWTentative AUD — Australian bond supply; Forecast —, Previous —. Hot / soft scenario: Strong demand can cushion local yields. Weak demand and weaker AUD would add context for Risk Off 05, whose gate remains US PPI.

Market Read

At 20:30 WIB, watch core and headline PPI together, then the first sustained move in short yields and equity breadth. Mixed prints leave the two conditional branches inactive. Canadian data land in the same window, so USD/CAD can move on both sides of the pair.

MV Research

Market research for the stated session. Trade ideas require the listed market and event conditions.

13 November 2026 · WIB / UTC+7