CORE REGIME — A unanimous 25bp Fed hike and the 2027 plateau support USD as the 10-year reaches 5.02%. Oil retreats but infrastructure risk remains. Fed October Hike 49.29% is a meeting roll; BoJ Hike 93.54% (+15.76pp), RBNZ 66.84% (+7.32pp). AUD and USD +2; JPY +1; CHF -3; NZD, CAD, ES and NQ -2. BoE votes and guidance are today’s main policy test.
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