DOMINANT THEME - Conditional risk-on returns through Nasdaq/semiconductor leadership and Hormuz normalization, but the Fed layer is still hawkish: Fed OIS is now Hold 57.80% / Hike 42.20% and +10.55 bps for 29 July versus prior +10.25 bps. USD keeps a policy floor, ES/NQ becomes the cleanest risk-on expression, oil is pressured by reopening, and gold/CHF retain insurance value against Lebanon or failed execution.
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