CORE REGIME — NVIDIA's bigger-than-expected beat lifted a narrow tape while the US goods-trade deficit blew out on AI-hardware imports, leaving Fed Hold pricing unchanged at 64.64% into Chair Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole keynote. ECB Hike conviction jumped 3.14pp to 92.96% on a hot HICP preview and RBA Hike odds crossed above Hold for the first time this cycle (+9.32pp to 53.22%), leaving AUD with the strongest complete score in the set. Oil rose 1.6% overnight as US-Iran rhetoric hardened, putting the institution stack's multi-day de-escalation base case in tension with the tape; a verified physical disruption, not rhetoric, remains the trigger that would flip Oil, Gold and selective risk sentiment.
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