29 April 2026

FX Daily Research

Dominant Theme — the Strait of Hormuz / energy shock remains the regime driver, with UAE’s planned OPEC+ exit adding another supply-side narrative layer. The key pivot is whether the oil impulse keeps lifting inflation expectations and forcing central banks to stay restrictive (ECB inflation-expectations jump, “higher-for-longer” framing), or whether risk stabilizes into the Europe inflation prints, US hard-data batch, and the Bank of Canada decision cluster.