Daily ResearchENLive

29 September 2026

Daily Research

CORE REGIME — Fed October hike odds climbed to 70.18% and BoE November odds to 81.21% as Treasuries sold off 7-9bp (10-year 5.24%); gold fell 3.54% to 4168.40. US–Iran contacts via Qatar ended with denials on both sides and the Iranian delegation leaving New York, so Hormuz stays shut. The RBA at 11:30 WIB (forecast 4.60%) and Canada GDP at 19:30 WIB lead today; Core PCE (Wed) and NFP (Fri) gate the USD book.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 1 — Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Realised data 28–29 September (source calendar already in WIB) · notable updates 29 September · US close snapshot 21:50 BST = 03:50 WIB

Released economic data

United States (USD)

FOMC Member Cook Speaks (00:25 WIB): Voter; expects continued inflation pressure in coming months from AI and the Middle East conflict, sees signs of broadening, and says the labour market is well positioned to handle an increase in rates. → Bullish USD
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (00:30 WIB): Would not say AI is immune to rate pressure; low unemployment is a key support for consumption. → Neutral USD
FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (Mon 19:15 WIB): No policy remarks are recorded in today's notes. → Neutral USD
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: 9.8 vs no forecast vs 11.6. Activity still expanding, at a slower pace; second-order next to rates. → Neutral USD

Eurozone (EUR)

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Mon 20:30 WIB, medium): Growth broad-based, policy on the middle path, a measured response appropriate to keep inflation in check; rates at the upper end of the neutral range. EUR softened mildly. → Neutral EUR

United Kingdom (GBP)

BRC Shop Price Index y/y: 1.4% vs 1.5% vs 1.5%. Shop-price inflation eased slightly; low impact. → Neutral GBP
MPC Member Ramsden Speaks (Mon 17:00 WIB): Risks to the inflation outlook have tilted more to the upside; there could be a case for raising Bank Rate if pressures keep building. Dhingra worried high rates hit investment. → Bullish GBP

Australia (AUD)

Household Spending m/m: 0.0% vs 0.3% vs 1.1%. Flat spending undershot hours before the RBA; a soft input to the hike debate. → Bearish AUD

Japan (JPY)

SPPI y/y: 3.7% vs 3.6% vs 3.6%. The fastest corporate services inflation in over two years (Danske Bank). → Bullish JPY
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Mon 06:50 WIB): Hawkish tone: many members focused on mounting inflation risks and some called for faster hikes (Danske Bank). → Bullish JPY

Chronology, transmission and regime

US–Iran: talks through Qatar, denials on both sides, delegation heads home

A US official said Washington is continuing positive discussions with Iran through intermediaries and there will be no agreement without the nuclear issue. After reports that the US offered sanctions relief, Trump posted: "I offered them NOTHING!" Press TV cited an official calling reports of Iranian nuclear flexibility false. Araghchi said proposals were discussed with Qatari mediators, the US response will be relayed through Qatar, and the Supreme Leader's conditions must be met to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; the delegation left New York on Monday night. Qatar extended its LNG force majeure by a month (Bloomberg), Saudi Arabia resumed exports via the East-West pipeline at around 3.5mln BPD, and a Houthi-linked source said Saudi bridges could be added to its target list. Regime implication: no deal timetable, Hormuz shut, so the oil premium and the yield bid stay in place.

Fed: Cook sees broadening inflation; October hike odds 70.18%

Cook (voter) expects continued inflation pressure from AI and the Middle East conflict and said the labour market can handle higher rates; Barkin said AI is not immune to rate pressure. Hassett put productivity growth at 2.5%. Fed October hike odds rose to 70.18% from 62.14% in the weekly. Regime implication: the US front end keeps leading into Core PCE on Wednesday and NFP on Friday.

Yields up 7-9bp, gold -4.0%, Nasdaq leads losses

Treasuries sold off across the curve, with the US 10-year at 5.24% and the German 10-year at 3.64%. The S&P 500 fell 0.76% to 7,685 and the Nasdaq 100 1.08% to 30,277; only staples, health care and energy gained. DXY rose 0.2% to 101.20, spot gold dropped 4.0% and WTI and Brent gained 1.0%. Regime implication: rates, not earnings, drive risk assets, and gold has lost its geopolitical floor to real yields.

BoE and ECB: Ramsden opens the door, Lagarde stays measured

Ramsden said risks to inflation have tilted more to the upside and there could be a case for raising Bank Rate if pressures keep building; BoE November hike odds rose to 81.21%. Lagarde kept the ECB on its middle path and called a measured response appropriate; Pereira warned natural-gas prices could lift inflation this winter. PM Burnham addresses the Labour conference on Tuesday. Regime implication: sterling gets rate support, the euro less.

Japan and trade: Mimura jawbones, Trump says Canada wants a deal

FX official Mimura said Tokyo is not reassured by recent yen moves and that a clear message was sent to the US on rates; USD/JPY dipped beneath 157.00 before recovering. Trump said Canada wants a deal and he thinks one will be made, and rated his meeting with Xi a 12 on a scale of 0-10. Regime implication: intervention risk caps USD/JPY while CAD trades on tariff headlines.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 2 — FX, Commodities & US Equity

24–28 September institution research · 29 September macro and pricing edition

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Cook said the labour market can handle higher rates and flagged broadening inflation pressure; Barkin added that AI is not immune to rate pressure. Treasuries sold off 7-9bp with the 10-year at 5.24%, DXY closed at 101.200 (+0.23%) and the Dallas Fed index eased to 9.8 from 11.6. Core PCE (Wed) and NFP (Fri) are the week's tests.

Institution Commentaries

MUFG: "The current backdrop is supportive of the US dollar remaining stronger for longer". Danske Bank: strong data "could well support the continuation of the broad USD rally from here". Crédit Agricole CIB calls this "the season of the dollar"; Nordea: "we see more room for the USD to perform"; SEB: "This is positive for the dollar". ING Research dissents: "we see downside risks for the dollar in the next few days". World Gold Council keeps the dollar index in a range: "only above 1234 would be seen to mark the completion of a large base" (neutral). 5 of 7 banks lean bullish (25–28 Sep).

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

Fed 28 October — Current Scenario Distribution: Hike 70.18% / Hold 29.82%. Prior (28 September weekly digest): Hike 62.14% / Hold 37.86%. Δ Hike +8.04pp; Δ Hold -8.04pp. A second straight hawkish repricing.

Bias & short summary: Bullish, medium conviction. October Fed hike odds rose another 8.04pp to 70.18%, Cook backed tighter policy and 5 of 7 banks lean bullish (25–28 Sep), with ING the dissenter. Retail traders are 75% short USD, a contrarian signal that adds to the view; speculators barely moved (+1.5pp), so COT adds nothing. Core PCE on Wednesday and NFP on Friday (both 19:30 WIB) can confirm or cut the view.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Lagarde kept the ECB on its middle path and called a measured response appropriate to keep inflation in check, with rates at the upper end of the neutral range. EUR softened intraday; EUR/USD closed at 1.13780 (+0.03%), down 0.89% over five days. Spain's flash CPI (14:00 WIB) opens the inflation run into Friday's euro-area flash.

Institution Commentaries

Crédit Agricole CIB: "We therefore maintain our cautious near-term outlook on EUR/USD". Nordea: "EUR/USD, in turn, has continued to fall". SEB: France "could become increasingly negative for the euro if the situation deteriorates". MUFG: "downside risks for the euro will continue". KBC Economics: "Technicals favour a return towards the 1.1325 YTD low". Danske Bank (attributed; bank name not printed in this PDF): "EUR/USD - On a structurally declining trend, target 1.12 in 12M". ING Research now leans the other way: "We have a preference for EUR/USD to inch back higher and stabilise just above 1.140". 6 of 7 banks lean bearish (24–28 Sep).

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

ECB 29 October — Current Scenario Distribution: Hold 55.71% / Hike 44.29%. Prior (28 September weekly digest): Hold 53.62% / Hike 46.38%. Δ Hike -2.09pp; Δ Hold +2.09pp. A small dovish drift.

Bias & short summary: Neutral. Research leans bearish: 6 of 7 banks (24–28 Sep), with ING the lone dissenter after turning mildly constructive. Retail is 57% short EUR, a contrarian bullish signal that cancels it, and speculators were essentially unchanged. ECB October hike odds slipped 2.09pp to 44.29%, too small to change the picture, and no euro-area data surprised.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Ramsden said risks to the inflation outlook have tilted more to the upside and there could be a case for raising Bank Rate if pressures keep building; Dhingra worried high rates hit investment. BRC shop prices eased to 1.4% (forecast 1.5%). GBP/USD closed at 1.32293 (+0.14%). PM Burnham addresses the Labour conference on Tuesday.

Institution Commentaries

Crédit Agricole CIB: "We maintain a cautious GBP/USD outlook from current levels", but "a potential bout of GBP weakness should not extend to EUR/GBP". KBC Economics: "EUR/GBP found support around 0.845 with first resistance around 0.86 now under test again" (neutral). Danske Bank (attributed; bank name not printed in this PDF): "EUR/GBP - Tactically neutral and strategically bullish" (neutral). Only 1 of 3 banks leans bearish (24–25 Sep): no consensus.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

BoE 5 November — Current Scenario Distribution: Hike 81.21% / Hold 18.79%. Prior (28 September weekly digest): Hike 71.62% / Hold 28.38%. Δ Hike +9.59pp; Δ Hold -9.59pp. A hawkish repricing after Ramsden.

Bias & short summary: Neutral. BoE November hike odds jumped 9.59pp to 81.21% as Ramsden opened the door to a hike, a bullish repricing, while research gives no consensus: only 1 of 3 banks leans bearish (24–25 Sep). Retail is 56% long GBP, a contrarian bearish signal that cancels the repricing; COT adds nothing.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Household spending was flat (0.0% vs 0.3% forecast, 1.1% previous) hours before the RBA decision at 11:30 WIB, where the calendar forecast is a hike to 4.60% from 4.35%. AUD/USD closed at 0.70091 (+0.02%), down 1.58% over five days. Monthly CPI follows on Wednesday at 08:30 WIB.

Institution Commentaries

ING Research: "We therefore expect markets to retain expectations for further tightening after the meeting, offering support to AUD". Danske Bank disagrees: "we think the recent downtick in AUD/USD will extend further". Crédit Agricole CIB: "The risk is that the statement and Bullock are not hawkish enough to support this pricing weighing on the AUD" (mixed). MUFG: "However, if FX vol picks up further AUD is one that will suffer" (mixed). UniCredit Investment Institute: "the positive impact on the Aussie dollar is unlikely to be big" (neutral). Only 1 of 5 banks leans bullish and 1 of 5 bearish (25–28 Sep): no consensus.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

RBA 29 September — Current Scenario Distribution: Hike 100.00% on a 4.3500% current rate. Prior (28 September weekly digest): Hold 94.32% / Hike 5.68% on a panel already set at 4.60%. Both price today's hike; the base changed, so the readings are not comparable.

Bias & short summary: Bullish, medium conviction, event-gated. Research is split, with only 1 of 5 banks bullish and 1 bearish (25–28 Sep), and the RBA pricing change reflects a new base rather than a new view. Positioning supplies the bias: speculators added 6.8pp of longs and retail is 63% short AUD, both bullish. The RBA at 11:30 WIB can confirm or reverse it; card 03 carries both cases.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

No New Zealand data in the last 24 hours. NZD/USD closed at 0.56514 (-0.10%), down 1.25% over five days. Westpac questions the hawkish shift priced for the RBNZ.

Institution Commentaries

Crédit Agricole CIB: "this foot-dragging will be a near-term weight on the NZD" (bearish). Westpac: "We’d question whether the RBNZ’s thinking has really shifted to that degree" (a rates view, not an FX call). Only one bank covered NZD, and it leans bearish (25 Sep): too few for a view yet.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

RBNZ 28 October — Current Scenario Distribution: Hike 77.46% / Hold 22.54%. Prior (28 September weekly digest): Hike 81.52% / Hold 18.48%. Δ Hike -4.06pp; Δ Hold +4.06pp. Hike odds eased but stay high.

Bias & short summary: Bearish, medium conviction. Research gives no view: only one bank covered NZD (bearish, 25 Sep), and RBNZ hike odds slipped 4.06pp to 77.46%, short of a repricing. Positioning supplies the bias: retail is 85% long NZD and speculators added 3.4pp of shorts, both bearish. Cards 02 and 03 sell NZD.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

Trump said Canada wants a deal and calls the US all the time. No Canadian data on Monday; monthly GDP is due at 19:30 WIB (forecast 0.0%, previous 0.3%), and Wednesday is a Canadian bank holiday. USD/CAD closed at 1.41548 (+0.06%), up 1.15% over five days.

Institution Commentaries

Crédit Agricole CIB: "That leaves the balance of risks rather tilted to the downside for the CAD in the near term". CAD drew a single bank view, bearish (25 Sep): too few for a view yet.

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

BoC 28 October — Current Scenario Distribution: Hike 60.20% / Hold 39.80%. Prior (28 September weekly digest): Hike 62.07% / Hold 37.93%. Δ Hike -1.87pp; Δ Hold +1.87pp. Little change.

Bias & short summary: Bearish, medium conviction. Research gives no view: only one bank covered CAD (bearish, 25 Sep), and BoC hike odds barely moved (-1.87pp to 60.20%). Positioning supplies the bias: speculators added 4.2pp of shorts and retail is 60% long CAD, both bearish. GDP at 19:30 WIB is the swing factor for card 01.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

The July minutes were hawkish, with many members focused on mounting inflation risks, and services PPI rose to 3.7% (forecast 3.6%). FX official Mimura said Tokyo is not reassured by recent yen moves and sent a clear message to the US on rates. USD/JPY dipped beneath 157.00 before recovering and closed at 157.463 (-0.85%).

Institution Commentaries

Crédit Agricole CIB: "We are lowering our USD/JPY forecast profile", now 156 on average in Q426 and 150 in Q427. MUFG: "The yen has been holding up better against the US dollar than other major currencies recently", citing intervention risk. Danske Bank (attributed; bank name not printed in this PDF): "USD/JPY - Looking for strategic selling opportunities". ING Research: "Without any intervention, a return to above 160.0 levels looks inevitable". 3 of 4 banks lean bullish on the yen (24–28 Sep).

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

BoJ 30 October — Current Scenario Distribution: Hold 75.48% / Hike 24.52%. Prior (28 September weekly digest): Hold 65.50% / Hike 34.50%. Δ Hike -9.98pp; Δ Hold +9.98pp. A dovish repricing despite hawkish minutes.

Bias & short summary: Bullish, low conviction. Research nets to no view: BoJ October hike odds fell 9.98pp to 24.52%, while 3 of 4 banks lean bullish on the yen (24–28 Sep) on intervention risk and lower USD/JPY forecasts. Retail is 70% short JPY, a contrarian bullish signal, and COT adds nothing. Card 06 uses the yen only if US data disappoints.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

No Swiss data in the last 24 hours; KOF is due at 14:00 WIB (forecast 106.0, previous 106.7). USD/CHF closed at 0.82972 (+0.20%), up 0.86% over five days.

Institution Commentaries

ING Research: "We think downside risks remain for the franc". MUFG: "Further encouragement for selling the franc". Danske Bank (attributed; bank name not printed in this PDF): "we see CHF headwinds to continue the coming months". Crédit Agricole CIB sees "the CHF as a favoured funding currency" but limited spot losses (neutral). 3 of 4 banks lean bearish (24–25 Sep).

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

SNB 10 December — Current Scenario Distribution: Hold 60.07% / Hike 39.93%. Prior (28 September weekly digest): Hold 57.76% / Hike 42.24%. Δ Hike -2.31pp; Δ Hold +2.31pp. Little change.

Bias & short summary: Bearish, high conviction. 3 of 4 banks lean bearish (24–25 Sep), with CHF favoured as a funding currency, and SNB pricing barely moved (-2.31pp). Speculators added 3.6pp of shorts and retail is 64% long CHF; both confirm the view. CHF is excluded from Section 4.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

COMEX December gold fell 3.54% to 4168.40, down 4.92% over five days, and spot gold dropped 4.0% on Monday as yields rose. The latest US 10Y real yield is 2.83% (25 September), up 15bp over five days.

Institution Commentaries

MUFG: "Persistent energy-driven inflation and elevated Treasury yields remain significant headwinds for gold", with gold below USD 4,206/oz. World Gold Council: "Gold remains under pressure as US bond and real yields see a further sharp rise". Crédit Agricole CIB: "We maintain a constructive long-term outlook on gold from current levels". Reuters (LSEG Data & Analytics) quotes Saxo: "Gold's recent support low around $4,235 is the first level to watch" (not counted); price is now below it. 2 of 3 banks lean bearish (25–28 Sep).

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

Fed-linked: Fed 28 October Hike 70.18% (prior 62.14%, +8.04pp). Gold's view rests on real yields: 10Y TIPS 2.83%, -2bp 1D, +15bp 5D (FRED, 25 September).

Bias & short summary: Bearish, medium conviction. The 10Y real yield is up 15bp over five days at 2.83%, and 2 of 3 banks lean bearish (25–28 Sep), with MUFG and the World Gold Council both pointing to yields. Retail is 75% long gold, a contrarian signal that adds to the view. Managed Money is crowded at +30.9% long, so COT is not scored, but a positioning flush is the downside accelerator.

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

US–Iran headlines ran both ways on Monday: a US official spoke of positive discussions through intermediaries, but Trump wrote "I offered them NOTHING!", Press TV denied any nuclear flexibility and the Iranian delegation left New York. Hormuz reopening stays tied to the Supreme Leader's conditions, Qatar extended its LNG force majeure and Saudi exports resumed via the East-West pipeline at around 3.5mln BPD. WTI settled at 92.60 (+0.21%) and Brent at 97.83 (+0.40%).

Institution Commentaries

Bank views are quoted as context only. MUFG: "Continued disagreement over Hormuz and persistent attacks should keep the geopolitical risk premium elevated". Natixis CIB: "Brent crude prices rebound above $107/bbl". ING Research: "it might be too early for a break lower in oil prices".

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

Fed-linked: Fed 28 October Hike 70.18% (prior 62.14%, +8.04pp). Oil's view rests on US–Iran headlines and Gulf supply, not on rate pricing.

Bias & short summary: Neutral. US–Iran news is on record every day, so the research view follows those headlines: they are mixed over the last day and the past week, which leaves physical disruption as a bullish driver. Hormuz is still shut, Qatar's LNG force majeure was extended and the Houthis keep threatening Saudi targets. Retail is 56% long WTI, a contrarian bearish signal that cancels it; Managed Money barely moved (+0.1pp).

Macro Recap + Notable Updates

ES: Bearish. ES fell 0.73% to 7746.75 as Treasury yields rose 7-9bp (10-year 5.24%); Costco's beat is the only earnings result in the inputs, not enough to offset rates. Speculators added 7.9pp of shorts, which confirms the view and raises conviction; retail is balanced at 52% long.

NQ: Bearish, low conviction. NQ fell 1.05% to 30566.25, the weakest of the majors, on the same yield move. Speculators added 8.8pp of shorts, but retail is 59% short, a contrarian bullish signal, so positioning nets out and conviction stays low.

Institution Commentaries

Bank equity views are quoted as context only. Reuters (LSEG Data & Analytics): "Costco Wholesale beat quarterly estimates". UniCredit Investment Institute: "software stocks have re-emerged as one of the stronger corners of the technology sector".

Market Pricing — Scenario Distribution vs Prior

Fed 28 October Hike 70.18% (prior 62.14%, +8.04pp); US 10Y 5.24% with yields up 7-9bp on 28 September (FRED 10Y 5.17%, 25 September).

Bias & short summary: Bearish for both. Higher yields drive the view; ES carries the stronger signal because speculator shorts confirm it with no retail offset, while NQ retail shorts cut its conviction.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 3 — Research, COT & Retail

COT 22 September vs 15 September (CFTC release 25 September, latest available) · retail snapshots 29 September

G10 FX

Market	Section 2 Bias + Short Summary	COT	Retail Sentiment	Final Bias
USD	Bullish, medium conviction. October Fed hike odds rose another 8.04pp to 70.18%, Cook backed tighter policy and 5 of 7 banks lean bullish (25–28 Sep), with ING the dissenter. Retail traders are 75% short USD, a contrarian signal that adds to the view; speculators barely moved (+1.5pp), so COT adds nothing. Core PCE on Wednesday and NFP on Friday (both 19:30 WIB) can confirm or cut the view.Research Score: +1	-9.7% ShortCOT Score: 0 22 Sep -9.7% Short vs 15 Sep -11.2% Short (+1.5pp). Speculators trimmed shorts by 1.5pp: too small to signal.	Short 75%Retail Score: +1	Bullish +2
EUR	Neutral. Research leans bearish: 6 of 7 banks (24–28 Sep), with ING the lone dissenter after turning mildly constructive. Retail is 57% short EUR, a contrarian bullish signal that cancels it, and speculators were essentially unchanged. ECB October hike odds slipped 2.09pp to 44.29%, too small to change the picture, and no euro-area data surprised.Research Score: -1	-3.2% ShortCOT Score: 0 22 Sep -3.2% Short vs 15 Sep -3.1% Short (-0.2pp). Essentially unchanged.	Short 57%Retail Score: +1	Neutral 0
GBP	Neutral. BoE November hike odds jumped 9.59pp to 81.21% as Ramsden opened the door to a hike, a bullish repricing, while research gives no consensus: only 1 of 3 banks leans bearish (24–25 Sep). Retail is 56% long GBP, a contrarian bearish signal that cancels the repricing; COT adds nothing.Research Score: +1	+5.4% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +5.4% Long vs 15 Sep +6.0% Long (-0.6pp). Small long reduction; no signal.	Long 56%Retail Score: -1	Neutral 0
AUD	Bullish, medium conviction, event-gated. Research is split, with only 1 of 5 banks bullish and 1 bearish (25–28 Sep), and the RBA pricing change reflects a new base rather than a new view. Positioning supplies the bias: speculators added 6.8pp of longs and retail is 63% short AUD, both bullish. The RBA at 11:30 WIB can confirm or reverse it; card 03 carries both cases.Research Score: 0	+19.2% LongCOT Score: +1 22 Sep +19.2% Long vs 15 Sep +12.4% Long (+6.8pp). Speculators added 6.8pp of longs: a clear bullish shift.	Short 63%Retail Score: +1	Bullish +2
NZD	Bearish, medium conviction. Research gives no view: only one bank covered NZD (bearish, 25 Sep), and RBNZ hike odds slipped 4.06pp to 77.46%, short of a repricing. Positioning supplies the bias: retail is 85% long NZD and speculators added 3.4pp of shorts, both bearish. Cards 02 and 03 sell NZD.Research Score: 0	-4.7% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -4.7% Short vs 15 Sep -1.3% Short (-3.4pp). Shorts grew by 3.4pp: bearish shift.	Long 85%Retail Score: -1	Bearish -2
CAD	Bearish, medium conviction. Research gives no view: only one bank covered CAD (bearish, 25 Sep), and BoC hike odds barely moved (-1.87pp to 60.20%). Positioning supplies the bias: speculators added 4.2pp of shorts and retail is 60% long CAD, both bearish. GDP at 19:30 WIB is the swing factor for card 01.Research Score: 0	-15.1% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -15.1% Short vs 15 Sep -10.9% Short (-4.2pp). Shorts grew by 4.2pp: bearish shift.	Long 60%Retail Score: -1	Bearish -2
JPY	Bullish, low conviction. Research nets to no view: BoJ October hike odds fell 9.98pp to 24.52%, while 3 of 4 banks lean bullish on the yen (24–28 Sep) on intervention risk and lower USD/JPY forecasts. Retail is 70% short JPY, a contrarian bullish signal, and COT adds nothing. Card 06 uses the yen only if US data disappoints.Research Score: 0	+2.0% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +2.0% Long vs 15 Sep +4.3% Long (-2.3pp). Longs trimmed by 2.3pp; no signal.	Short 70%Retail Score: +1	Bullish +1
CHF	Bearish, high conviction. 3 of 4 banks lean bearish (24–25 Sep), with CHF favoured as a funding currency, and SNB pricing barely moved (-2.31pp). Speculators added 3.6pp of shorts and retail is 64% long CHF; both confirm the view. CHF is excluded from Section 4.Research Score: -1	-12.3% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -12.3% Short vs 15 Sep -8.7% Short (-3.6pp). Shorts grew by 3.6pp: bearish shift.	Long 64%Retail Score: -1	Bearish -3

Cross-Asset

Market	Section 2 Bias + Short Summary	COT	Retail Sentiment	Final Bias
Gold	Bearish, medium conviction. The 10Y real yield is up 15bp over five days at 2.83%, and 2 of 3 banks lean bearish (25–28 Sep), with MUFG and the World Gold Council both pointing to yields. Retail is 75% long gold, a contrarian signal that adds to the view. Managed Money is crowded at +30.9% long, so COT is not scored, but a positioning flush is the downside accelerator.Research Score: -1	+30.9% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +30.9% Long vs 15 Sep +32.5% Long (-1.6pp). Managed Money is crowded above 30% long; the level is a flush risk, not a signal.	Long 75%Retail Score: -1	Bearish -2
Oil	Neutral. US–Iran news is on record every day, so the research view follows those headlines: they are mixed over the last day and the past week, which leaves physical disruption as a bullish driver. Hormuz is still shut, Qatar's LNG force majeure was extended and the Houthis keep threatening Saudi targets. Retail is 56% long WTI, a contrarian bearish signal that cancels it; Managed Money barely moved (+0.1pp).Research Score: +1	+5.5% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +5.5% Long vs 15 Sep +5.4% Long (+0.1pp). Managed Money flat.	Long 56%Retail Score: -1	Neutral 0
ES	Bearish. ES fell 0.73% to 7746.75 as Treasury yields rose 7-9bp (10-year 5.24%); Costco's beat is the only earnings result in the inputs, not enough to offset rates. Speculators added 7.9pp of shorts, which confirms the view and raises conviction; retail is balanced at 52% long.Research Score: -1	-19.9% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -19.9% Short vs 15 Sep -12.0% Short (-7.9pp). Leveraged Funds added 7.9pp of shorts: bearish.	Long 52%Retail Score: 0	Bearish -2
NQ	Bearish, low conviction. NQ fell 1.05% to 30566.25, the weakest of the majors, on the same yield move. Speculators added 8.8pp of shorts, but retail is 59% short, a contrarian bullish signal, so positioning nets out and conviction stays low.Research Score: -1	-10.7% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -10.7% Short vs 15 Sep -2.0% Short (-8.8pp). Leveraged Funds added 8.8pp of shorts: bearish.	Short 59%Retail Score: +1	Bearish -1

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 4 — Trade Ideas

Six ideas · four core trades (the RBA gates card 03 today) and two US-data scenarios (Core PCE Wed, NFP Fri) · WIB

Core · largest pair gaps · RBA-gated card 03

Thesis

USD +2 vs CAD -2 = gap +4 → long USD/CAD. Tied for the largest non-CHF gap. The Fed is repricing higher (October hike odds 70.18%) while CAD has no research support: only one bank covered it, bearish, and speculators added 4.2pp of CAD shorts. USD/CAD closed at 1.41548, above the 1.41 area Crédit Agricole CIB flags. Canada GDP tonight is the near-term test; Wednesday's bank holiday thins CAD liquidity. Cards 01, 02 and 04 carry the same US-yield driver and card 03 shares the NZD short with card 02: treat cards 01-04 as one risk book, about $50 in total on the Hollaprime $10k account, not $50 each. Either/or with card 06.

Triggers

Canada GDP m/m at or below the 0.0% forecast (19:30 WIB, previous 0.3%)
USD/CAD holds above 1.41 toward the 1.42 highs (Crédit Agricole CIB, 25 Sep)

Invalidation

USD/CAD back below 1.41 after a Canada GDP beat and soft JOLTS or confidence data (21:00 WIB)

Main Risks

Trade headlines: Trump says Canada wants a deal and he thinks one will be made
Higher oil supports CAD
Soft US data on Wednesday or Friday hits the whole USD book

Pair Retail Confirmation / Conflict

Confirmation: USD/CAD pair retail is 7% long / 93% short, a contrarian bullish signal.

Thesis

NZD -2 vs USD +2 = gap -4 → short NZD/USD. Tied for the largest non-CHF gap. Fed October hike odds rose to 70.18% while RBNZ odds eased 4.06pp to 77.46%, and Westpac questions the hawkish shift priced for the RBNZ. Only one bank covers NZD, bearish, and speculators added 3.4pp of shorts. NZD/USD closed at 0.56514, down 1.25% over five days. No NZD/USD levels are in the inputs, so it runs on event triggers only. Cards 01, 02 and 04 carry the same US-yield driver and card 03 shares the NZD short with card 02: treat cards 01-04 as one risk book, about $50 in total on the Hollaprime $10k account, not $50 each. Either/or with card 06.

Triggers

JOLTS at or above 7.23M and CB consumer confidence at or above 89.2 (Tue 21:00 WIB) keep US 2Y yields firm
RBNZ October hike odds stay below the 81.52% of the 28 Sep weekly

Invalidation

Core PCE m/m below 0.3% (Wed 19:30 WIB) and NFP below 98K (Fri 19:30 WIB)
RBNZ October hike odds back above 81.52%

Main Risks

Crowded: pair retail 93% long and NZD already down 1.25% over five days
A hawkish RBA can lift the whole antipodean bloc
Soft US data on Wednesday or Friday hits the whole USD book

Pair Retail Confirmation / Conflict

Confirmation: NZD/USD pair retail is 93% long, a contrarian bearish signal.

Thesis

AUD +2 vs NZD -2 = gap +4 → long AUD/NZD. Tied for the largest non-CHF gap, and the AUD side is event-gated: the RBA at 11:30 WIB decides it. A hike to 4.60% with the door left open triggers the card; a hold or a one-and-done hike cancels it. ING Research expects Bullock to keep further tightening priced, while RBNZ hike odds eased 4.06pp to 77.46% and Westpac doubts the RBNZ shift. Speculators added 6.8pp of AUD longs and 3.4pp of NZD shorts. No AUD/NZD levels are in the inputs, so it runs on event triggers only. Cards 01, 02 and 04 carry the same US-yield driver and card 03 shares the NZD short with card 02: treat cards 01-04 as one risk book, about $50 in total on the Hollaprime $10k account, not $50 each.

Triggers

RBA lifts the cash rate to 4.60% at 11:30 WIB
The statement and Bullock (12:30 WIB) leave the door open to further hikes

Invalidation

RBA holds, or the statement and Bullock signal a one-and-done hike
AUD CPI on Wednesday (08:30 WIB) undershoots

Main Risks

Danske Bank sees the RBA delivering less than the 2-3 hikes priced
Crédit Agricole CIB: the statement may not be hawkish enough for current pricing
MUFG: AUD suffers if FX volatility picks up

Pair Retail Confirmation / Conflict

Confirmation: AUD/NZD pair retail is 10% long / 90% short, a contrarian bullish signal.

Thesis

Gold is Bearish with medium conviction. COMEX December gold fell 3.54% to 4168.40, now below the $4,235 support Saxo flagged (Reuters) and MUFG's USD 4,206 mark, with the 10Y real yield up 15bp over five days. Managed Money is still crowded at +30.9% long, so the flush has room. Cards 01, 02 and 04 carry the same US-yield driver and card 03 shares the NZD short with card 02: treat cards 01-04 as one risk book, about $50 in total on the Hollaprime $10k account, not $50 each. Cut this card first if total risk needs trimming. Either/or with card 06.

Triggers

Gold stays below $4,235 (Saxo via Reuters, 25 Sep) and USD 4,206 (MUFG, 28 Sep)
Hot Core PCE (Wed 19:30 WIB) lifts real yields further

Invalidation

Gold back above $4,235
US 10Y real yield falls 5bp or more in a day

Main Risks

Oversold after a 4.92% five-day drop; short covering on any Hormuz deal headline
Crédit Agricole CIB keeps a constructive long-term view
The real-yield print lags (latest 25 September)

Pair Retail Confirmation / Conflict

Confirmation: gold retail is 75% long, a contrarian bearish signal (single-asset reading).

Event scenarios · Core PCE, NFP

Thesis

NZD -2 vs USD +2 = gap -4 → short NZD/USD. This card only adds to card 02 and only if both prints beat: Core PCE m/m above the 0.3% forecast (Wed 30 Sep 19:30 WIB) and NFP above the 98K forecast (Fri 2 Oct 19:30 WIB), with US 2Y yields rising on each release. Two hot prints would extend a Fed repricing already at 70.18%. The add does not raise total risk: keep the book at about $50 by trimming cards 01 and 04. Either/or with card 06.

Triggers

Core PCE m/m above 0.3% (Wed 19:30 WIB) and NFP above 98K (Fri 19:30 WIB)
US 2Y yields rise on both releases

Invalidation

Either print at or below forecast: no add
US 2Y yields give back the release move

Main Risks

Adding late: NZD/USD already fell 1.25% over five days and pair retail is 93% long
ING Research sees the USD rally at risk of a pullback to 100.50 on DXY
A credible Hormuz agreement pulls yields lower

Pair Retail Confirmation / Conflict

Confirmation: NZD/USD pair retail is 93% long, a contrarian bearish signal.

Thesis

USD +2 vs JPY +1 = gap +1 → long USD/JPY. The gap is below the idea threshold and this card fades it, so it is conditional: it fires only on soft US data, when the rate story behind the USD book breaks. The yen has its own support: Crédit Agricole CIB cut its USD/JPY forecasts to 156 in Q426 and 150 in Q427, MUFG cites intervention risk, Mimura is jawboning, and 3 of 4 banks lean bullish on the yen. MUFG puts the pair in a 155.00-160.00 range. Either/or with cards 01, 02, 04 and 05: if it triggers, cut or trail those first and keep total risk near $50.

Triggers

NFP well below 98K (Fri 19:30 WIB) and/or Core PCE m/m below 0.3% (Wed 19:30 WIB)
US 2Y yields fall on the release
USD/JPY turns lower inside 155.00-160.00 (MUFG, 28 Sep); add on a break below 155.00

Invalidation

USD/JPY above 160.00 (MUFG, 28 Sep)
US 2Y yields recover the release drop

Main Risks

Fights a Bullish USD and a Fed at 70.18% October hike odds
BoJ October hike odds fell to 24.52%
Crédit Agricole CIB: USD/JPY "could struggle to head significantly lower while oil prices remain elevated"

Pair Retail Confirmation / Conflict

No pair signal: USD/JPY pair retail is 52% long, below the 55% threshold. The yen single-currency read (70% short) is the contrarian support.

MV Research · Daily Research

Section 5 — Today’s Key Risk Events

Tuesday · 29 September 2026 · all times WIB (UTC+7); source calendar already in UTC+7

Active Geopolitical Risk

GEO

Hormuz · US–Iran mediation · Bab el-Mandeb LIVE

Focus

Whether Qatar relays a US response to Tehran after the delegation left New York; any sign of a second round versus Rezaei's "four or five days" deadline; further Houthi threats to Saudi infrastructure and Bab el-Mandeb traffic; Qatar's extended LNG force majeure; follow-up to the foiled attack near RAF Fairford that Rubio tied to a foreign actor.

Market Read

A credible Hormuz timetable is the main downside gap for oil and US yields: it would hit cards 01, 02 and 04 together and favour the soft-USD case in card 06. Escalation lifts oil and yields and supports the USD book; gold stays capped by real yields either way.

Today’s calendar

TUE

29 September · RBA · Canada GDP · JOLTS · CB confidence HIGH

Key Data

HIGH11:30 WIB AUD — Cash Rate; Forecast 4.60%, Previous 4.35%. Scenario: A hike to 4.60% with further tightening kept open supports AUD and triggers card 03; a hold, or a hike framed as the last, hits AUD.
HIGH11:30 WIB AUD — RBA Rate Statement; Forecast —, Previous —. Scenario: Language keeping further hikes on the table supports AUD; emphasis on the flat spending data or a cooling labour market weakens it.
MEDIUM12:30 WIB AUD — RBA Press Conference; Forecast —, Previous —. Scenario: Bullock leaving the door open confirms card 03; a one-and-done message invalidates it.
LOW14:00 WIB CHF — KOF Economic Barometer; Forecast 106.0, Previous 106.7. Scenario: Above 106.0 is a small positive for CHF; below it adds to the funding-currency case. CHF is not traded here.
LOW14:00 WIB EUR — Spanish Flash CPI y/y; Forecast 4.6%, Previous 4.3%. Scenario: Above 4.6% lifts ECB hike odds and supports EUR; below it weighs on the euro.
LOW15:30 WIB GBP — M4 Money Supply m/m; Forecast 0.1%, Previous -0.3%. Scenario: Low impact; above 0.1% is a marginal hawkish input for the BoE.
LOW15:30 WIB GBP — Mortgage Approvals; Forecast 56K, Previous 56K. Scenario: Above 56K signals housing resilience and supports BoE hike pricing; below it softens it.
LOW15:30 WIB GBP — Net Lending to Individuals m/m; Forecast 6.2B, Previous 6.3B. Scenario: Low impact; a figure above 6.2B supports household demand.
LOWTentative EUR — Italian 10-y Bond Auction; Forecast —, Previous 4.10|1.6. Scenario: Weak demand or a higher yield than the previous 4.10 adds to euro-area spread risk.
LOWTentative GBP — 10-y Bond Auction; Forecast —, Previous 5.16|3.6. Scenario: A yield above the previous 5.16 with weak cover adds to the gilt sell-off; strong demand calms it.
LOW17:00 WIB EUR — German Buba President Nagel Speaks; Forecast —, Previous —. Scenario: Hawkish inflation warnings lift ECB hike odds; caution on growth weighs on EUR.
MEDIUM18:00 WIB EUR — ECB President Lagarde Speaks; Forecast —, Previous —. Scenario: A shift from the measured stance toward hiking lifts EUR; repeating the middle path leaves the euro without support.
MEDIUM19:30 WIB CAD — GDP m/m; Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.3%. Scenario: At or below 0.0% confirms card 01; above 0.3% supports CAD and weakens it.
LOW20:00 WIB USD — HPI m/m; Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.0%. Scenario: Low impact; above 0.1% is a marginal positive for USD.
LOW20:00 WIB USD — S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y; Forecast 2.2%, Previous 2.1%. Scenario: Low impact; above 2.2% signals housing resilience despite higher rates.
MEDIUM21:00 WIB USD — CB Consumer Confidence; Forecast 89.2, Previous 89.4. Scenario: Above 89.2 supports the USD book; a drop below it is an early soft signal before Core PCE.
MEDIUM21:00 WIB USD — JOLTS Job Openings; Forecast 7.23M, Previous 7.27M. Scenario: Above 7.23M supports Fed hike pricing and the USD book; a miss is an early sign for the soft-USD case in card 06.
LOW22:00 WIB GBP — MPC Member Mann Speaks; Forecast —, Previous —. Scenario: Hawkish remarks add to BoE hike pricing (81.21%) and support GBP.
LOW22:00 WIB USD — FOMC Member Bowman Speaks; Forecast —, Previous —. Scenario: Support for another hike lifts US 2Y yields and the USD book; caution weakens it.
LOW22:30 WIB GBP — MPC Member Taylor Speaks; Forecast —, Previous —. Scenario: Pushback on further hikes would trim BoE pricing and weigh on GBP; support for them adds to it.
LOW23:40 WIB USD — FOMC Member Barr Speaks; Forecast —, Previous —. Scenario: Backing further adjustment supports the USD; a patient tone softens it.

Market Read

The RBA at 11:30 WIB (press conference 12:30 WIB) is the only high-impact event and decides card 03. Canada GDP at 19:30 WIB tests card 01; JOLTS and Conference Board confidence at 21:00 WIB are the first US reads before Core PCE on Wednesday. Lagarde (18:00 WIB) and four Fed and BoE speakers late in the session can move rate pricing.

MV Research

MV Research provides information and education, not investment advice. This edition synthesises institution research dated 24–28 September (most recent document per institution that states a view), the 29 September notable-updates file, the 28–29 September realised-data calendar, and 29 September pricing, retail and calendar captures. COT is 22 September versus 15 September, released 25 September; the next release is 2 October. Market closes are 28 September; the US 10Y real yield is the latest FRED print (25 September). Market Pricing compares with the 28 September weekly digest; the RBA comparison spans a change in base rate. No separate oil-supply file was supplied; US–Iran items come from the notable-updates file and the 27 September recap. Military, diplomatic and policy claims remain attributed until confirmed. Scores and trade ideas are conditional analytical constructs.

29 September 2026 · WIB (UTC+7)