CORE REGIME — Fed October hike odds climbed to 70.18% and BoE November odds to 81.21% as Treasuries sold off 7-9bp (10-year 5.24%); gold fell 3.54% to 4168.40. US–Iran contacts via Qatar ended with denials on both sides and the Iranian delegation leaving New York, so Hormuz stays shut. The RBA at 11:30 WIB (forecast 4.60%) and Canada GDP at 19:30 WIB lead today; Core PCE (Wed) and NFP (Fri) gate the USD book.
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