Daily Research
The S&P 500 gained 0.19% to 7,666 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.31% to 30,502, supported by software after Accenture earnings and Synopsys guidance. The Dow was almost flat at 50,932 and Russell 2000 added 0.35% to 2,807. A choppy, narrow advance ahead of payrolls points to selective risk appetite rather than broad conviction.
Claims of 197K and construction spending at +0.9% argue against an abrupt slowdown. ISM at 54.5 missed, but prices paid jumped to 77.9. Bowman and Jefferson favoured patience, while Kashkari still envisaged a hike and Logan subsequently argued for at least another 50 bps. Treasuries rallied on haven demand and patient voices, but the policy split means payrolls and inflation can quickly reprice December.
DXY rose 0.5% to 102.00 as geopolitical demand and US rate advantage outweighed mixed activity. EUR/USD fell 0.8%, GBP/USD lost 0.5% below 1.3200 and USD/JPY rose 0.5% toward 158. Better euro-area PMIs did not offset French fiscal and possible diesel-supply stress. Tokyo inflation has since beaten expectations, adding a yen squeeze risk to the dollar-led move.
WTI climbed 2.8% and Brent 5.8% as US-Iran talks stalled, reports indicated more US military assets, and a tanker was reportedly struck near Oman. Houthi missiles and drones were intercepted over southern Saudi Arabia. Alleged Iranian involvement in an attempted flight attack remains unconfirmed. Restored Saudi East-West pipeline flows near 5.5mb/d partially cushion supply, but Hormuz, Red Sea and infrastructure risks keep a material premium in crude.
US pressure for a European strategic-diesel release raised the possibility of restrictions on exports to France and Germany. Later presidential language was softer. A coordinated release would ease near-term refined-product tightness, while an export ban could transfer the shortage to Europe and worsen its energy terms of trade. The outcome remains conditional rather than a settled policy.
Spot gold rose 0.4% despite a stronger dollar, as geopolitical hedging outweighed the rate headwind. Copper fell 0.8% on dollar and manufacturing concerns. Bitcoin gained 1.3% and Ethereum 0.5%, showing that defensive FX and rates can coexist with selected risk gains. A renewed yield rise after payrolls would challenge gold and long-duration equity valuations.
The base case is a defensive, event-sensitive regime: dollar and crude supported, equities selective, and gold two-sided. Confirmed diplomacy, safe shipping and a diesel-stock release would unwind part of the oil and haven premium. A military escalation or a hot wage and payroll combination would reinforce the dollar and inflation risk, while a weak jobs report could reverse rate pricing.
Claims at 197K and spending at +0.9% point to resilience; the 54.5 ISM miss tempers growth, while prices paid at 77.9 renew inflation concern. DXY gained 0.5% to 102.00 and NFP is the next catalyst.
MUFG: USD strength reflects resilient activity and high US yields; softer PCE and patient Fed remarks have yet to reverse momentum. ING Research: The dollar remains well bid near annual highs as cyclical strength dominates. KBC: Strong US activity and labour data offset softer PCE and sustained a higher-yield narrative. CIBC Economics: Real spending rose 0.6% in August despite real income falling 0.1%, leaving sustainability a question. Crédit Agricole CIB: Its +90K September NFP estimate is close to the 89K consensus; state and local education hiring adds uncertainty.
Fed 28 Oct: Hold 75.40% / Hike 24.60%. Prior (1 Oct daily): Hold 56.13% / Hike 43.87%. Hike change -19.27pp.
Most manufacturing PMIs beat, yet Italian unemployment rose to 6.2%. EUR/USD fell 0.8% as dollar demand, French bond stress and potential diesel restrictions outweighed the growth improvements.
ING Research: French fiscal plans do not stabilise debt; rapid OAT-Bund widening could transmit into EUR/USD and EUR/CHF. Natixis CIB: French OAT stress coincides with upside euro-area inflation risk ahead of the flash HICP. Danske Bank Research: OAT-Bund widening persisted despite lower broad European yields, highlighting France-specific stress. MUFG: The ECB remains hawkish, but US front-end yields rose more, leaving EUR/USD exposed to the dollar spread.
ECB 29 Oct: Hold 73.85% / Hike 26.15%. Prior (1 Oct daily): Hold 58.89% / Hike 41.11%. Hike change -14.96pp.
Housing prices fell 0.2% m/m and manufacturing PMI at 51.9 narrowly missed. GBP/USD lost 0.5% below 1.3200 as broad USD demand dominated.
MUFG: Sterling weakness is largely dollar-driven and EUR/GBP was steady; it doubts that 100 bps of BoE hikes priced by July 2027 is justified. Crédit Agricole CIB: The prior FX outlook was cautious on sterling as domestic growth lagged.
BoE 5 Nov: Hold 12.39% / Hike 87.61%. Prior (1 Oct daily): Hold 18.13% / Hike 81.87%. Hike change +5.74pp.
The goods surplus missed at 0.50B versus 2.00B expected; commodity-price growth slowed to 15.5% y/y. Oil and geopolitical risk weigh on risk-sensitive FX, although earlier RBA tightening and a positive COT level provide support.
MUFG: The RBA may pause after four hikes; AUD downside could be contained, with gradual recovery expected in 2027. Westpac: August inflation was close to its forecast, while approvals and investor credit weakened.
RBA 3 Nov: Hold 74.75% / Hike 25.25%. Prior (1 Oct daily): Hold 70.39% / Hike 29.61%. Hike change -4.36pp.
There is no new domestic release in the supplied macro recap. Dollar strength and regional risk aversion pressure NZD; the RBNZ hike probability has fallen to 53.08%.
MUFG: September NZD underperformed despite an RBNZ hike because guidance on further moves disappointed investors. Crédit Agricole CIB: The prior FX outlook remained cautious after New Zealand rate guidance disappointed.
RBNZ 28 Oct: Hold 46.92% / Hike 53.08%. Prior (1 Oct daily): Hold 37.83% / Hike 62.17%. Hike change -9.09pp.
Manufacturing PMI slowed to 51.5 from 53.0. Oil gains cushion the terms of trade, but widening US-Canada spreads, trade uncertainty and falling BoC hike odds keep the internal CAD stack weak.
MUFG: Wider US-Canada spreads and trade-related growth risks weigh now; higher crude could support a modest CAD recovery in 2027. Crédit Agricole CIB: The prior FX outlook saw weaker Canadian demand and wider rate spreads as near-term headwinds.
BoC 28 Oct: Hold 64.70% / Hike 35.30%. Prior (1 Oct daily): Hold 46.12% / Hike 53.88%. Hike change -18.58pp.
Tankan missed and USD/JPY approached 158, but Tokyo core CPI beat at 2.7% versus 2.4% and ex-food-energy CPI rose to 3.0%. USD/JPY initially fell 14 pips to 157.85 on the inflation release. Intervention and inflation create squeeze risk.
MUFG: BoJ minutes disappointed near-term hike expectations, though policy normalisation and prior intervention limit yen downside. Crédit Agricole CIB: It projects a 2.5% BoJ terminal rate and examines the inflation implications of fiscal expansion.
BoJ 30 Oct: Hold 75.72% / Hike 24.28%. Prior (1 Oct daily): Hold 68.45% / Hike 31.55%. Hike change -7.27pp.
CPI at 0.0% met consensus, retail sales beat at 3.2%, and manufacturing PMI slowed to 55.3. CHF found haven support against EUR even as global yields remain a headwind.
MUFG: Higher global yields hurt CHF in September, but it expects franc strength to return in 2027. ING Research: French spread stress can transmit into EUR/CHF weakness and reinforce franc demand. Syz: The French-Swiss 10-year spread reached another high, adding relative-rate context to EUR/CHF weakness.
SNB 10 Dec: Hold 83.72% / Hike 16.28%. Prior (1 Oct daily): Hold 67.57% / Hike 32.43%. Hike change -16.15pp.
Spot gold gained 0.4% as geopolitical hedging offset a firmer dollar. Payrolls may lift real yields and challenge the hedge bid, while escalation would support it.
World Gold Council: Its pension-fund cases frame gold as a portfolio diversifier for inflation, stress and liquidity; they are not a tactical price target. MUFG: Higher Treasury yields limited gold recovery despite demand for a geopolitical hedge. Crédit Agricole CIB: Private demand for gold remained present but was not excessive; reserve changes had mixed drivers.
No central-bank scenario distribution applies directly to gold; Fed Hold 75.40% / Hike 24.60% versus prior Hold 56.13% / Hike 43.87% (Hike -19.27pp) is the rate channel.
WTI rose 2.8% and Brent 5.8% as stalled diplomacy, a tanker incident and regional missile threats lifted the supply premium. Restored Saudi pipeline flows near 5.5mb/d and possible diesel-stock releases limit upside.
Oil uses the public US–Iran and Gulf-shipping news from the last five trading days.
ING Research: Earlier in the day, recovering Yanbu loadings and an EIA build favoured softer crude. MUFG: Refined products remain tight and Hormuz negotiations lack progress despite recovering flows.
No policy scenario directly applies to oil; Fed Hold 75.40% / Hike 24.60% versus prior Hold 56.13% / Hike 43.87% (Hike -19.27pp) influences demand and USD, while supply risk dominates.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 0.19% and 0.31% on software strength, but the advance was narrow. ISM prices at 77.9, payroll risk and Middle East escalation cap conviction.
ES: Neutral. The nominal 10-year yield fell 5bp; Accenture earnings and Synopsys guidance improved S&P 500 breadth. COT changed -7.9pp; retail is 52.0% short. The 19:30 WIB US jobs release gates the view.
NQ: Bullish, low conviction. The nominal 10-year yield fell 5bp; Synopsys guidance helped Nasdaq 100, but one name is below the earnings threshold. COT changed -8.8pp; retail is 68.0% short. The 19:30 WIB US jobs release gates the view.
Natixis CIB: Its technology coverage flags an FTC inquiry into AI consumer risks, a regulatory counterweight to software optimism. SEB: US long yields remained close to multi-year highs even after softer PCE, a headwind for long-duration equities. Westpac: Easing inflation signs and higher-for-longer rate concerns left a mixed, volatile cross-asset session. World Gold Council: Its portfolio discussion notes that the equity-bond correlation can become unreliable during inflation shocks.
No equity-specific policy scenario; Fed Hold 75.40% / Hike 24.60% versus prior Hold 56.13% / Hike 43.87% (Hike -19.27pp) is the discount-rate channel.
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Bullish, low conviction. Fed hike probability moved from 43.87% to 24.60% (-19.27pp). Claims beat while ISM missed, leaving the higher-impact data mixed. 3 of 3 directional banks lean bullish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed +1.5pp; retail is 78.4% short. The 19:30 WIB US jobs release gates the view.Research Score: 0 | Leveraged Funds -9.7%COT Score: 0 22 Sep -9.7% vs 15 Sep -11.2% (+1.5pp). | Short 78.4%Retail Score: +1 | Bullish +1 |
| EUR | Bearish, medium conviction. ECB hike probability moved from 41.11% to 26.15% (-14.96pp). Manufacturing PMIs beat, although Italian unemployment worsened; these lower-impact releases do not offset policy repricing. 4 of 4 banks lean bearish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed -0.2pp; retail is 63.7% long. Euro CPI at 16:00 WIB gates the view.Research Score: -1 | Leveraged Funds -3.2%COT Score: 0 22 Sep -3.2% vs 15 Sep -3.1% (-0.2pp). | Long 63.7%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -2 |
| GBP | Bullish, low conviction. BoE hike probability moved from 81.87% to 87.61% (+5.74pp). Housing and final PMI missed, but both were lower-impact releases. 1 of 2 banks lean bearish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed -0.6pp; retail is 53.7% short. Research Score: +1 | Leveraged Funds +5.4%COT Score: 0 22 Sep +5.4% vs 15 Sep +6.0% (-0.6pp). | Short 53.7%Retail Score: 0 | Bullish +1 |
| AUD | Bullish, low conviction. RBA hike probability moved from 29.61% to 25.25% (-4.36pp). The trade surplus missed; no additional higher-impact domestic release was supplied. 1 of 2 banks lean bullish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed +6.8pp; retail is 53.4% short. Research Score: 0 | Leveraged Funds +19.2%COT Score: +1 22 Sep +19.2% vs 15 Sep +12.4% (+6.8pp). | Short 53.4%Retail Score: 0 | Bullish +1 |
| NZD | Bearish, high conviction. RBNZ hike probability moved from 62.17% to 53.08% (-9.09pp). No domestic release was supplied today. 2 of 2 banks lean bearish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed -3.4pp; retail is 87.0% long. Research Score: -1 | Leveraged Funds -4.7%COT Score: -1 22 Sep -4.7% vs 15 Sep -1.3% (-3.4pp). | Long 87.0%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -3 |
| CAD | Bearish, medium conviction. BoC hike probability moved from 53.88% to 35.30% (-18.58pp). Manufacturing slowed, with no comparable forecast in the input. 2 of 2 banks lean bearish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed -4.2pp; retail is 54.9% long. Research Score: -1 | Leveraged Funds -15.1%COT Score: -1 22 Sep -15.1% vs 15 Sep -10.9% (-4.2pp). | Long 54.9%Retail Score: 0 | Bearish -2 |
| JPY | Bullish, low conviction. BoJ hike probability moved from 31.55% to 24.28% (-7.27pp). Tokyo inflation beat across three measures, while unemployment edged higher. 1 of 2 banks lean bearish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed -2.3pp; retail is 69.1% short. Research Score: 0 | Leveraged Funds +2.0%COT Score: 0 22 Sep +2.0% vs 15 Sep +4.3% (-2.3pp). | Short 69.1%Retail Score: +1 | Bullish +1 |
| CHF | Bearish, low conviction. SNB hike probability moved from 32.43% to 16.28% (-16.15pp). CPI met consensus; retail sales beat while PMI missed at lower impact. 3 of 3 banks lean bullish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed -3.6pp; retail is 50.9% short. Research Score: 0 | Leveraged Funds -12.3%COT Score: -1 22 Sep -12.3% vs 15 Sep -8.7% (-3.6pp). | Short 50.9%Retail Score: 0 | Bearish -1 |
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | Neutral. The 10-year real yield fell 5bp in one day but rose 3bp over five trading days. 1 of 3 institutions leans bullish (29 Sep–1 Oct). COT changed -1.6pp; retail is 68.0% long. The 30.9% managed-money net is crowded, so its weekly shift adds no score. The 19:30 WIB US jobs release gates the view.Research Score: +1 | Managed Money +30.9%COT Score: 0 22 Sep +30.9% vs 15 Sep +32.5% (-1.6pp). | Long 68.0%Retail Score: -1 1 Oct 2026 14:39 UTC | Neutral 0 |
| OIL | Neutral. Public US–Iran remarks returned to escalation, and reported tanker strikes keep a supply premium; the five-day diplomatic path remains mixed. COT changed +0.1pp; retail is 59.0% long. Research Score: +1 | Managed Money +5.5%COT Score: 0 22 Sep +5.5% vs 15 Sep +5.4% (+0.1pp). | Long 59.0%Retail Score: -1 1 Oct 2026 14:39 UTC | Neutral 0 |
| ES | Neutral. The nominal 10-year yield fell 5bp; Accenture earnings and Synopsys guidance improved S&P 500 breadth. COT changed -7.9pp; retail is 52.0% short. The 19:30 WIB US jobs release gates the view.Research Score: +1 | Leveraged Funds -19.9%COT Score: -1 22 Sep -19.9% vs 15 Sep -12.0% (-7.9pp). | Short 52.0%Retail Score: 0 30 Sep 2026 12:07 UTC | Neutral 0 |
| NQ | Bullish, low conviction. The nominal 10-year yield fell 5bp; Synopsys guidance helped Nasdaq 100, but one name is below the earnings threshold. COT changed -8.8pp; retail is 68.0% short. The 19:30 WIB US jobs release gates the view.Research Score: +1 | Leveraged Funds -10.7%COT Score: -1 22 Sep -10.7% vs 15 Sep -2.0% (-8.8pp). | Short 68.0%Retail Score: +1 30 Sep 2026 12:07 UTC | Bullish +1 |