CORE REGIME — The market shifted from one-way inflationary risk-off toward selective differentiation. CAD gained a policy-and-Oil cushion after a hawkish BoC hold; JPY experienced an intervention-driven short squeeze rather than broad USD weakness; AUD retained the strongest complete score on China and trade support; NZD fell to the weakest FX score after a -9.0% terms-of-trade shock. Hormuz passage remains functional but contested, so physical disruption—not rhetoric—is the escalation gate. Waller, claims and ISM services are the final major US inputs before payrolls.
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