CORE REGIME — Waller opened a September hold path if August inflation progresses, cutting Fed Hike odds to 52.50% into NFP. ISM Services beat with Prices 72.6 hot. ECB Hike is fully priced at 100%; RBA Hike jumped to 63.17%. Hormuz stays contested — Vance cited ~15 mbpd Wednesday — and an IRGC missile claim is unconfirmed. AUD remains the strongest complete FX score; NZD the weakest. Gold +1.8% on the Dollar soft patch; Oil keeps a geo premium.
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