Nasdaq Pre-Market Research — 9 November 2026

Opening brief — Monday, 9 November. Research cutoff: 2026-11-09T13:03:58Z, or 08:03:58 ET / 20:03:58 WIB. Cash opens at 09:30 ET / 21:30 WIB; coverage ends at 12:00 ET / 00:00 WIB on 10 November. New York is on EST, twelve hours behind Jakarta. A regular session is scheduled on the Nasdaq exchange calendar.

Lean: cautiously bullish, with moderate-low confidence. Three drivers matter: broad futures recovery, lower oil and dollar readings, and pronounced dispersion within technology. Nvidia is falling while AMD, Broadcom and several hyperscalers advance. The next scheduled company catalyst is monday.com’s 08:30 ET / 20:30 WIB call; Bowman follows at 08:40 ET / 20:40 WIB. Prefer a confirmed pullback or breakout retest after opening structure develops. The strongest counterevidence is Nvidia’s approximately 5% decline, reinforced by weak monday.com shares. Invalidate the bullish preference if NQ accepts below its completed opening-range low and cash-session VWAP while semiconductor weakness broadens. Overnight direction alone is not an entry.

What changed since Friday’s cash close

Verified — Nvidia acquired a new governance risk over the weekend. Its board announced an independent investigation into reports of a foreign intelligence effort targeting Jensen Huang. The board also said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised and expressed confidence in management. Allegations are not established findings. Nvidia statement

Interpretation: uncertainty around leadership, information security and export-policy scrutiny can increase Nvidia’s risk premium without establishing a change in chip demand. Its negative reaction is visible, but positive semiconductor peers argue against declaring an industry-wide earnings shock. Separately, Nvidia announced a sovereign-AI collaboration with Rebellions and SK Telecom; that is evidence of continuing commercial activity, not newly booked revenue. Company announcement

Verified — geopolitical relief remains conditional. Reuters reported that Trump described further Iran attacks as highly unlikely while negotiations progressed. Oil subsequently traded below Friday’s reference. Lower energy costs could ease inflation pressure and support margins, but neither a completed settlement nor restored shipping is established here. Do not convert reports of a proposed agreement into a confirmed reopening. Reuters

Verified — China’s policy relief is narrow. Commerce officials extended the suspension of specified export-control measures against 16 US entities for two months from 10 November, with licensing still required. This can reduce supply-chain uncertainty; it is not blanket removal of technology restrictions. MOFCOM

China’s October inflation data are already released: CPI rose 0.7% year over year versus 0.9% previously, while PPI increased 5.7% versus 5.0%. Reuters’ PPI consensus was 5.3%. The combination suggests weak consumer pricing alongside upstream cost pressure, rather than an uncomplicated growth acceleration. US futures strength cannot be attributed to this release alone. NBS, Reuters

Earnings and leadership

Constellation — released before the open: revenue was $9.55 billion, GAAP diluted EPS $5.19 and adjusted operating EPS $5.06. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance narrowed to $12.50–$12.80 with a higher midpoint. Calpine’s inclusion and hedge/accounting adjustments complicate organic comparisons. The existing Amazon and Google power agreements support investment visibility; their earlier announcements are not fresh orders today. Company release

One published expectation set was $3.88 EPS and $9.35 billion revenue; other vendors differ, so the exact surprise is source-dependent. CEG’s positive premarket reaction supports the power-infrastructure theme without proving equivalent upside for chip suppliers. Expectations

monday.com — released: revenue $377.5 million; diluted EPS $0.80 GAAP and $2.14 adjusted; operating margins 8% GAAP and 24% adjusted. Q4 revenue guidance is $380–$382 million, approximately 14% growth, versus 19% in Q3. Results include $10 million of restructuring charges; adjusted earnings are not interchangeable with GAAP. SEC release

Revenue exceeded approximately $369 million consensus, but a comparable adjusted-EPS consensus was not independently established. Falling shares suggest forward growth matters more than the reported revenue beat; timing alone cannot establish the sole cause. Earnings coverage

NRG also released results: adjusted EPS $4.68 versus GAAP basic EPS $2.59, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and reported its previously announced data-center power project remained on track. It is an adjacent power-sector signal, not a Nasdaq heavyweight. SEC release

Cross-asset evidence

Each row has its own UTC observation timestamp. Yahoo futures/dollar observations lag retrieval by about ten minutes; VIX by about fifteen. Equity observations are premarket bars, not Friday’s regular-market metadata; their delivery delay is unspecified. CNBC labels Treasury observations real-time. All are public indications, not executable quotes.

Equity/ETF changes use Friday’s regular-session closing reference. Futures/index changes use the vendor’s previous-close field; futures references are not independently verified settlements. Breadth across the sampled leaders is encouraging, but it is not a full constituent breadth calculation. The slightly higher 2Y and slightly lower 10Y show no uniform rates rally: avoid calling this a confirmed dovish repricing.

Catalyst clock

All following events are pending unless stated otherwise. Times are ET / WIB; WIB dates roll to 10 November after noon ET.

Wholesale inventory consensus is +0.6% monthly; August was +0.5%, while September’s advance estimate was already +0.6%. Today’s revision and sales figures remain unavailable. Read inventories alongside sales: accumulation can reflect stronger demand expectations or unsold stock. Census baseline, consensus

The NY Fed one-year inflation expectation was previously 3.90%; FHLBNY lists a 3.78% survey estimate. Speaker and auction consensus are unavailable/not applicable. Tomorrow’s October CPI is scheduled for 08:30 ET / 20:30 WIB; no CPI actual exists for this edition. BLS

Ranked opening scenarios

1. Bullish recovery/continuation. Require acceptance above the completed 15-minute opening range, a successful retest, and sustained semiconductor participation. Watch the breakout-retest family. A wick above the range is insufficient. Invalidate on sustained re-entry and loss of the retest swing. Objectives are the next independently marked overnight extreme or prior-session swing; stand aside if price reaches that objective before entry.

2. Two-way auction. Repeated range-edge rejection and VWAP crossings would show unresolved disagreement. Watch a sweep followed by a completed two-minute close back inside and a successful retest. Objectives are VWAP, then the opposite boundary if structure permits. Sustained acceptance outside the range invalidates the fade. Avoid the middle and overlapping candles.

3. Bearish continuation after an opening reversal. Require loss of the completed range low and VWAP, followed by a failed recovery, with Nvidia weakness spreading to AMD/Broadcom. Watch a breakdown retest. Objectives are verified overnight lows and subsequent Friday references. Recovery above the failed-breakdown structure invalidates the short. Stand aside if weakness remains isolated to Nvidia or the break immediately reclaims.

Two-minute execution playbook

Use only accepted-breakout retests and sweep-reclaim reversals.

• First five minutes, 09:30–09:35: observe spreads, leadership and actual opening prints; no automatic gap chase.
• Minutes 5–15: map swings and independently verified overnight boundaries. The 15-minute opening range remains incomplete until 09:45 ET / 21:45 WIB.
• Minutes 15–60: require a completed two-minute confirmation and retest. Pause new entries around 10:00; reassess both prices and yields after the interruption.
• Remainder to lunch: reassess at 11:00 and around 11:30 auctions. Continue only while structure and leadership agree; stop forcing entries if rotation replaces directional progress.

Acceptance means follow-through and a defended retest, not merely touching a level. No position size or fixed profit target is supplied without a risk budget.

Today’s no-trade conditions

Stand aside with stale execution data, disorderly spreads, repeated failed breaks, conflicting semiconductor leadership, fresh unverified geopolitical claims, or inadequate room before the next structural obstacle. Do not hold a new thesis through a scheduled catalyst without a defined risk plan.

Desk card

• Lean: cautiously bullish; confirmation required.
• Best long: completed range breakout, defended retest, broad technology support.
• Best short: accepted range/VWAP loss with spreading semiconductor weakness.
• Invalidation: bullish preference fails below the completed range and VWAP with deteriorating leadership.
• Levels: numeric support/resistance, profile and VWAP are unavailable; verify on NQZ6.
• Next catalyst: monday.com call, 08:30 ET / 20:30 WIB; Bowman, 08:40 / 20:40.
• Avoid: chasing the overnight rise or treating Nvidia allegations as findings.
• Conditional edge: trade whether broad recovery survives cash-market participation despite Nvidia’s drag.

Data limitations and final refresh: December NQ/MNQ identity is verified; CME lists 14 December as customary roll and 18 December expiry. No roll event applies today. CME Numeric technical levels, order flow and dealer gamma were not independently verified. Final refresh preserved the recovery-versus-Nvidia divergence and incorporated released monday.com results; no listed US macro release occurred during research. Metavulus calendar, headlines and weekly preview were leads, not independent confirmation. This edition is a timestamped snapshot, not continuous monitoring.