Nasdaq Pre-Market Research — 11 November 2026

Opening brief

Wednesday, 11 November 2026. Research cutoff: 2026-11-11T13:03:26Z, or 08:03:26 ET / 20:03:26 WIB. Cash opens at 09:30 ET / 21:30 WIB; coverage ends at 12:00 ET / 00:00 WIB on 12 November. America/New_York is on EST, making WIB 12 hours ahead. Nasdaq lists a normal equity session; Veterans Day is a recommended US bond-market holiday. Nasdaq, SIFMA.

Lean: cautiously bullish recovery; low–moderate confidence. Three drivers are CoreWeave’s overnight earnings and outlook, participation across semiconductor shares, and an opposing rise in the dollar and oil. The next verified, material index-wide timed catalyst is the 09:30 ET / 21:30 WIB cash open; no major scheduled macro release before it was verified.

Prefer a completed opening-range break and successful retest, or a failed downside break followed by sustained recovery. The strongest counterevidence is that AI growth still requires expensive financing while the rates backdrop remains restrictive. Invalidate the bullish bias if NQ accepts below its completed opening range, fails to reclaim it and semiconductor leadership deteriorates. Overnight direction is preparation, not an entry signal.

What changed since Tuesday’s cash close

Verified earnings: CoreWeave’s post-close report supplied a fresh demand signal. Quarterly revenue was $3.661 billion, versus $3.55 billion LSEG consensus. Its previous annual revenue outlook was $12.4–13.2 billion. Reuters earnings report.

GAAP diluted EPS was −$1.27, with a $709 million net loss and $846 million net interest expense. Comparable GAAP EPS consensus was unavailable. The operating-profit reconciliation excludes $160 million stock compensation and $12 million acquired-intangible amortization; acquisition costs and debt-extinguishment adjustments were zero this quarter. These exclusions should not all be described as one-off cash expenses. Company results.

Adjusted operating margin reached 10%, and backlog was $132.5 billion; backlog remains conditional on delivery rather than immediate revenue. Company results overview. Updated guidance puts annual revenue at $13.0–13.3 billion, capex at $37–39 billion, and fourth-quarter interest expense at $1.05–1.15 billion. These are forecasts, not realized results. Outlook presentation.

Interpretation: Better revenue conversion can support expectations for GPU, networking and infrastructure demand. Nevertheless, investment substantially exceeding revenue leaves funding conditions important. The observed chip rally is consistent with that demand channel; simultaneous price moves cannot establish that this report caused every advance. Reuters independently described an AI-led global rebound this morning. Reuters market report.

Fresh opposing information: Baird reportedly downgraded Nvidia to Neutral and reduced its target to $200 from $500, citing weaker visibility into 2027 data-center demand. This is an analyst assessment, not company guidance or proof of cancelled orders. Nvidia remained positive in the sampled premarket tape, making its ability to retain gains particularly relevant after the open. Baird report.

Policy chronology: Bowman’s evening appearance repeated remarks first delivered before Tuesday’s close; it does not constitute a new overnight policy decision. Her discussion balances persistent inflation and firm activity against tighter financial conditions and AI financing vulnerabilities. That combination can support revenues while limiting valuation expansion. Federal Reserve remarks.

Tuesday’s CPI is an inherited hurdle, not today’s release: headline +0.4% m/m, versus September’s +0.6%, and core +0.3%, unchanged from September. Broad annual headline/core rates were unavailable because corresponding October 2025 observations were missing. BLS release. Official daily Treasury observations rose 17 basis points for 2Y and 10 basis points for 10Y on Tuesday. Today’s stock rebound therefore has no verified fresh cash-yield decline confirming an easier discount-rate environment. Treasury daily rates.

Oil’s rebound adds a potential inflation offset to the AI optimism. Reuters describes competing diplomatic hopes and shipping risks; reports of tanker incidents have differing event dates and attribution. No newly independently confirmed overnight shipping shutdown or new tariff action is asserted here. Reuters oil report. Anthropic IPO terms and TSMC investment announcements already circulated before Tuesday’s close; they are background, not new overnight catalysts.

Cross-asset evidence

Each observation has its own timestamp. Prices are USD where applicable. Futures/index changes use Yahoo’s previous reference, not independently verified settlement. Equity/ETF changes use explicit premarket bars against timestamped Tuesday regular-session references at 21:00:00–21:00:01Z.

Futures/dollar observations lag retrieval by about ten minutes; VIX by about fifteen. Equity bars are recent extended-session observations with unspecified upstream latency. None are executable quotes. VIX measures S&P volatility, not Nasdaq-specific risk.

Read-through: Participation extends beyond Nvidia into AMD, Broadcom and SMH. However, Apple is negative and Microsoft/Amazon advance much less. This supports semiconductor-led recovery, not uniform megacap strength or proven market-wide breadth. No precise index-point contribution is inferred.

Catalyst clock

Calendar checks: Metavulus, BLS, BEA, Fed. Company checks: InMode, Digi, Tetra Tech.

No Treasury auction today was verified. The next refunding auction is the 30Y bond on 12 November, 13:00 ET / 01:00 WIB on 13 November. Treasury. Nebius’s next webcast is 12 November, 08:00 ET / 20:00 WIB; Cisco reports on 12 November. Their unreleased results cannot explain this morning’s moves. Nebius, Cisco.

Ranked conditional opening scenarios

1. Bullish recovery/continuation. NQ holds above the completed range with chip participation and ES support. Require sustained closes outside the boundary and a retest that holds; a single wick is a sweep, not acceptance. Watch the retest long. Invalidate below its higher low with re-entry into the range. Objectives are the next independently mapped overnight extreme or prior-session supply. Stand aside if the move becomes vertical or leadership narrows sharply.

2. Two-way auction. Repeated breaks fail, leaders diverge and price returns inside the range. Watch a failed-break reclaim at an edge, only after a two-minute close back inside and a confirming retest. Invalidate beyond the swept extreme if price accepts outside. Logical objectives are the midpoint, then the opposite boundary if rotation persists. Avoid trading the middle or fading an accepted trend.

3. Bearish continuation of Tuesday’s weakness. The overnight rebound fails; NQ accepts below the opening range while chips lose leadership. Watch a downside break and failed retest from underneath. Invalidate on sustained reclaim above the boundary and lower-high structure. Objectives are verified overnight lows and prior-session demand. Stand aside if the downside is only a brief sweep or semiconductors recover together.

These rankings are judgments, not probabilities.

Two-minute execution playbook

Use only break-and-retest and failed-break reclaim. Define the opening range as 09:30–09:45 ET; it is incomplete beforehand.

• First five minutes: observe spreads, chip leadership and whether cash buyers retain overnight gains. No chase.
• Minutes 5–15: map developing extremes and swings. A completed-range breakout does not yet exist.
• Minutes 15–60: require two-minute closing acceptance plus a retest, or a sweep followed by sustained re-entry. Place structural invalidation beyond the setup swing; reject trades without room to the next verified reference.
• Minutes 60–150: reassess the unconfirmed 11:00 sentiment listing and emerging headlines. Continue only while participation and structure persist; repeated failed breaks favor standing aside toward lunch.

No contract size or fixed profit target is supplied without a risk budget.

No-trade conditions

Stay flat if spreads or slippage invalidate structural risk, public data conflict with the execution feed, price repeatedly crosses the range midpoint, chip leadership contradicts the trade, or a fresh policy/shipping headline changes the thesis. A holiday does not establish low volatility, and missing cash-yield updates must not be interpreted as stable rates.

Desk card

• Lean: cautiously bullish recovery; low–moderate confidence.
• Best long: accepted upside and held retest with semiconductor participation.
• Best short: failed recovery, accepted downside and rejected reclaim.
• Invalidation: NQ accepts below the completed opening range with weakening chips.
• Levels: independently verified numeric technical levels unavailable; table prices are snapshots.
• Next timed catalyst: cash open, 09:30 ET / 21:30 WIB.
• Avoid: gap chasing, premature range breaks and stale yield confirmation.
• Conditional edge: trade the cash market’s acceptance of the AI recovery only when leadership and structure agree.

Data limitations and final refresh

Specific NQ/MNQ December symbols and the front-month contract name agree. CME lists the next customary roll on 14 December, with expiration 18 December. CME. Numeric session levels, profile, VWAP, order flow and dealer gamma were not independently verified; establish these on the same December contract and defined session in your own feed.

The final refresh showed NQ easing from 28,378.75 to 28,364.25 and CoreWeave from 56.1861 to 56.0049 across successive snapshots; the directional ranking did not change. No new headline appeared in the refreshed public feed, and MBA actuals remained blank. Material research corrections were excluding a nonexistent InMode webcast and separating recycled policy/IPO news from overnight developments. Public headlines, first-party research. This is a fixed, timestamped edition, not continuous monitoring.