Nasdaq Pre-Market Research — 13 November 2026

Opening brief

Friday, 13 November 2026. Research cutoff: 2026-11-13T13:03:32Z, or 08:03:32 ET / 20:03:32 WIB. Cash opens at 09:30 ET / 21:30 WIB; coverage ends at 12:00 ET / 00:00 WIB on 14 November. America/New_York is on EST, making WIB 12 hours ahead. Nasdaq’s calendar supports a normal session; its status page reports normal operations, with no full closure confirmed. Nasdaq calendar, exchange status.

Lean: neutral/wait, with a mild downside tilt and low directional confidence. Three drivers are Williams’s overnight tightening message and higher yields; disappointing stock reactions to otherwise strong technology earnings; and a concentrated Nvidia recovery while several semiconductor peers decline. The next catalyst is October PPI at 08:30 ET / 20:30 WIB, still pending. BLS.

Prefer to let PPI pass, then assess the completed cash opening range. The strongest counterevidence is Nvidia’s rebound alongside resilient AI revenue guidance and lower VIX. Invalidate the downside tilt if NQ accepts above its completed opening range, holds a retest and broader semiconductor participation improves. Overnight direction alone is not an entry signal.

What changed since Thursday’s cash close

Policy — verified reporting: Williams said further tightening would likely be needed to return inflation to target, while describing a strong economy and strengthening labor market. Reuters reported the remarks after Thursday’s close; the New York Fed confirms the evening event. Reuters, New York Fed.

Interpretation: This combination supports earnings demand but limits expectations of rate relief. Higher observed yields are consistent with pressure on long-duration valuations; their movement cannot be attributed solely to one speech. Today’s PPI will test whether inflation pressure is broadening or easing.

Applied Materials — released after the close: Revenue was $10.41 billion, versus $10.30 billion consensus; adjusted EPS $4.16, versus $4.06, and GAAP EPS $3.40. Gross margins were 50.4% GAAP / 50.6% adjusted. Q1 guidance is revenue $11.1 billion ± $0.5 billion and adjusted EPS $4.35 ± $0.20, including a $0.04 tax benefit. A $0.68/share unrealized investment-loss adjustment dominates the EPS reconciliation. Company filing, consensus.

Cisco — released after the close: Revenue $18.5 billion and adjusted EPS $1.40 exceeded reported estimates of $18.11 billion / $1.32; GAAP EPS was $1.14. Adjusted gross margin fell to 65.6% from 68.1%. FY27 revenue guidance rose to $74.8–75.8 billion, adjusted EPS to $5.47–5.53, and expected hyperscaler AI revenue to $9 billion. Adjustments include stock compensation and acquisition-related amortization, which should not automatically be considered one-off. Cisco, estimate comparison.

Cerebras — released after the close: GAAP revenue was $210.8 million, core non-GAAP revenue $230.9 million, and GAAP diluted EPS −$0.67. Core revenue exceeded $214.7 million consensus. Core gross margin was 41%, versus 20% GAAP; core measures exclude items including customer-warrant amortization and stock compensation. Full-year core revenue guidance rose to $940–960 million. Comparable adjusted EPS was not independently established. Company, Reuters.

Read-through: These releases support continuing AI infrastructure demand, but revenue growth does not guarantee margin expansion or a positive stock reaction. Cisco and Applied Materials are lower in the timestamped observations below. That divergence favors waiting for cash-market acceptance rather than buying an earnings-beat headline.

Nvidia’s CEO transition was announced before the previous cash close; it is background, not fresh overnight news. Today’s new observation is a rebound without broad semiconductor confirmation. Nvidia’s results remain scheduled for 17 November, approximately 16:20 ET / 04:20 WIB on 18 November, with the call at 17:00 ET / 05:00 WIB. No results from that event are available. Nvidia.

Energy — new official information: Today’s IEA report says global oil supply exceeded demand in October and inventories increased, while shipping attacks and tight product supplies remain risks. This offers an inflation counterweight, but also reflects weak demand. Nearly flat WTI does not confirm a fresh escalation-driven inflation impulse. No new tariff measure is asserted. IEA public highlights.

Cross-asset evidence

Prices are USD where applicable. Each observation has its own UTC timestamp.

Yahoo futures/dollar observations lag cutoff by roughly 11 minutes; VIX by 16 minutes. Equity/ETF figures use explicit premarket bars against Thursday’s regular-session references timestamped 2026-11-12T21:00:00Z–2026-11-12T21:00:01Z. Futures changes use vendor previous references, not independently verified settlements. CNBC/Tradeweb labels yields realtime; timestamps have minute precision, with seconds normalized to zero. Yield changes use provider previous-day references, not a synchronized equity-close comparison. Upstream latency is not independently measured; none are executable quotes.

Interpretation: NQ underperforms all three comparison futures. Higher yields and dollar provide no obvious valuation relief, but falling VIX and positive Nvidia/Apple oppose indiscriminate risk-off. VIX measures S&P volatility, not Nasdaq-specific volatility. Cross-asset relationships are conditional.

Catalyst clock

All forthcoming events remain pending at cutoff.

Treasury’s published schedule lists no regular auction today. No BEA GDP/PCE release is scheduled. Premarket and after-close earnings calendars were screened; no additional Nasdaq heavyweight report was independently confirmed for today. Treasury, BEA, earnings calendar.

Conditional macro interpretation: Softer PPI helps a recovery only if yields ease and equities accept higher prices. Softer inflation accompanied by deteriorating growth expectations can still hurt earnings. Hotter PPI strengthens the downside case only if rates rise and semiconductor selling broadens. Inspect revisions and underlying services; do not substitute headline inflation for the whole report.

Ranked opening scenarios

1. Two-way auction — first preference. Conflicting leaders persist and attempts beyond the completed range fail. Watch a failed-break reclaim with a held retest inside. A wick is a sweep; acceptance requires consecutive completed two-minute closes and a successful retest. Invalidate beyond the swept extreme if price accepts outside. Objectives are the midpoint, then the opposite boundary. Stand aside in the middle or after repeated inconclusive crossings.
2. Bearish continuation. NQ accepts below the range while SMH/major chips weaken and yields remain firm. Watch a downside break-and-retest with a rejected reclaim. Invalidate above the rejection swing with sustained range re-entry. Objectives are feed-verified overnight lows, then prior-session support. Stand aside after a vertical extension or if leadership improves against the short.
3. Bullish recovery/continuation. NQ accepts above the range, holds a higher low and gains broader chip participation. Watch an upside break-and-retest. Invalidate below that higher low with sustained re-entry. Objectives are feed-verified overnight highs and subsequent prior-session supply. Stand aside if Nvidia alone carries the recovery or renewed rate pressure breaks participation.

Rankings are judgments, not probabilities or a predicted day type.

Two-minute execution playbook

Use only break-and-retest and failed-break reclaim.

• First five minutes, 09:30–09:35 ET: observe cash participation and spreads; do not chase the overnight move.
• Minutes 5–15: map developing extremes. The 09:30–09:45 range is still incomplete; no completed-range breakout exists.
• Minutes 15–60: require closing acceptance and a retest, then place structural invalidation beyond the setup swing. Recheck headlines at 10:00 and avoid initiating directly into 10:30.
• Remainder to lunch: reassess around Bowman at 10:50. Continue only while structure and participation agree; reset before Daly at noon. Reject trades with insufficient room to the next verified reference.

December is the applicable NQ/MNQ contract month. CME lists the December customary roll on 14 December and expiry on 18 December; today is not that quarterly roll. CME. No contract size or fixed monetary profit target is supplied without a risk budget.

No-trade conditions

Stand aside when PPI actuals remain unchecked, the execution feed disagrees with these snapshots, spreads prevent structural risk control, a fresh headline changes the thesis, or price repeatedly crosses the range midpoint. Do not fade an accepted trend simply because it appears extended.

Desk card

• Lean: neutral/wait; mild downside tilt, low confidence.
• Best long: accepted upside, held retest and broader semiconductor recovery.
• Best short: accepted downside, failed reclaim and persistent chip weakness.
• Invalidation: sustained acceptance above the completed range with improving chip breadth cancels the downside tilt.
• Levels: independently verified numeric technical levels unavailable; quotes are not support/resistance.
• Next timed catalyst: PPI, 08:30 ET / 20:30 WIB.
• Avoid: headline chasing, premature range breaks and automatic rate/equity correlations.
• Conditional edge: act only when post-PPI fundamentals, cash participation and two-minute structure align.

Data limitations and final refresh

The final refresh kept PPI pending and preserved the split between Nvidia’s rebound and weaker peers; NQ softened modestly without changing the wait-first conclusion. No thesis-changing new headline was independently verified. Numeric profile levels, VWAP, order flow, dealer gamma and positioning are unavailable. The trader’s own December-contract feed must establish session highs/lows and opening structure. Public quotes are asynchronous and delayed as disclosed. This is a timestamped edition, not continuous monitoring.