1. Header

• Title: London Session Market Analysis
• Date: Tuesday, 26 May 2026
• Timestamp: 13:05 WIB / 06:05 UTC
• Coverage window: Asia session through the London handoff until New York Open
• Data freshness note: Most live cross-asset quotes were checked between 12:55 and 13:05 WIB. VIX is the latest official cash close from Monday, 25 May. Live U.S. 2Y cash yield, live Bund/Gilt cash yields, European gas, and verified live credit-spread data were not directly available in this run.
• Session bias: Defensive

2. Executive Summary

• The biggest Asia-session shift was not a macro release but a geopolitical interruption: Metavulus Realtime News showed fresh CENTCOM-linked headlines around 06:01-06:03 WIB about U.S. defensive strikes in southern Iran, missile launch sites, and Iranian boats trying to lay mines.
• That stopped Monday''s clean peace-dividend follow-through. London inherits lower oil and firmer U.S. index futures, but not a fully trusted risk-on tape.
• The USD theme is mixed rather than bullish: DXY is softer near 99.11, yet USDJPY remains firm around 159.04 and USD/CNH sits near 6.79, showing that safe-haven and Asia-FX stress are not fully gone.
• U.S. rates are marginally supportive for risk, with the accessible live 10Y yield near 4.56%, but the live 2Y cash print was unavailable, so front-end confirmation is incomplete.
• Asia equities were mixed rather than uniformly strong: Nikkei and Shanghai softened, Hang Seng was roughly flat, and Indonesia''s JCI underperformed.
• Commodities still matter more than slogans: WTI near 91.97 and Brent near 95.42 help inflation optics, but gold holding around 4,525 says hedging demand has not fully left.
• Crypto remains selective, not broad-beta: BTC and ETH are slightly lower, SOL lags, BTC and ETH funding remain modestly positive, and SOL funding is negative.
• The best London alpha still comes from asymmetric confirmation trades, not hero calls: failed-bounce oil shorts, selective EURUSD / gold continuation, and BTC only if 78,000 is cleanly reclaimed.

3. What Happened During Asia

• Asia equities: Price action was mixed. Our accessible quotes showed Nikkei at 64,857.26 (-0.46%), Shanghai Composite at 4,119.47 (-0.80%), Hang Seng at 25,606.21 (roughly flat), and JCI at 6,149.68 (-0.91%). Reuters market coverage surfaced via web results also described mixed Asia trading with Japan lagging and broader Asia ex-Japan holding up better.
• China / Hong Kong / Japan / Indonesia: China and Japan did not deliver a fresh verified tier-1 domestic catalyst in the sources we could access; price action stayed driven by geopolitics and global risk sentiment. Hong Kong was more stable than mainland China, while Indonesia lagged with both weaker equities and a softer rupiah.
• FX reaction: DXY traded near 99.11 (-0.13% versus previous close), EURUSD near 1.1632 (-0.09%), GBPUSD near 1.3475 (-0.20%), USDJPY near 159.04 (+0.11%), AUDUSD near 0.7163 (-0.13%), USD/CNH near 6.7876 (+0.08%), EURGBP near 0.8630 (+0.15%), and USD/IDR near 17,785 (+0.26%). This is not a clean anti-dollar move; the dollar is softer on the index but still firm against JPY, CNH, and IDR.
• Rates and futures: Nasdaq 100 futures were around 29,803.5 (+0.83%) and S&P futures around 7,537 (+0.61%), consistent with partial continuation of Monday''s relief trade. The accessible live U.S. 10Y yield proxy was near 4.558%, down about 0.61% from the prior reading. Live U.S. 2Y cash yield was unavailable in this run.
• Commodities: Gold held near 4,525.6 (+0.05%), silver near 76.62 (+0.55%), copper near 6.378 (-0.02%), WTI near 91.97 (-4.79%), and Brent near 95.42 (-4.78%). Oil''s sharp drop tells you the market still wants to price lower disruption risk than last week, but gold''s resilience says the market is not fully comfortable.
• Crypto: BTC traded near 76,875.72 (-0.64%), ETH near 2,100 (-0.31%), and SOL near 84.55 (-1.69%). Binance futures data showed modestly positive funding in BTC and ETH, but SOL funding was negative, which is a useful warning that alt-beta conviction is weaker than headline risk-on chatter suggests.
• News and geopolitics: The internal Metavulus tape was dominated by Iran / Strait of Hormuz headlines. Around 06:01-06:03 WIB, the feed carried multiple U.S. Central Command-related headlines saying U.S. forces had carried out self-defense strikes in southern Iran and targeted missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines. Reuters and AP coverage available on the web also framed the Asia session as a market caught between peace hopes and fresh strike risk.
• Did Asia confirm or reject the prior U.S. move? Asia partially confirmed it in U.S. futures and lower oil, but rejected a full risk-on read because gold stayed firm, USDJPY did not fall, and Asia equities were not broad-based.

4. London Open Market Snapshot

Asset	Level / change	Read
Euro Stoxx 50 futures	Reuters reference around -0.16%	Europe enters cautiously, not in full risk-on sync with U.S. futures
FTSE futures	Reuters reference around +0.20%	UK index support comes from lower oil pressure and global beta, but headline risk remains
DAX futures	Reuters reference around -0.26%	Germany looks more cautious than U.S. futures into the handoff
NAS100 futures	29,803.5, about +0.83%	U.S. tech beta still has relief momentum
S&P 500 futures	7,537, about +0.61%	Broad U.S. risk appetite remains constructive
DXY	99.11, about -0.13%	Softer dollar, but not a collapse
EURUSD	1.1632, about -0.09%	Euro is stable, but not yet breaking higher
GBPUSD	1.3475, about -0.20%	Sterling is softer and still more flow-driven than domestically driven
USDJPY	159.04, about +0.11%	Yen is not attracting a strong haven bid
U.S. 2Y yield	Live cash print unavailable	Front-end Fed confirmation is incomplete
U.S. 10Y yield	~4.558, modestly lower	Helps risk sentiment at the margin
Bund / Gilt yields	Live cash prints unavailable	Europe rates confirmation remains incomplete
Gold	4,525.6, about +0.05%	Hedging demand still alive
WTI	91.97, about -4.79%	Relief from peak supply-risk pricing
Brent	95.42, about -4.78%	Same message as WTI: lower disruption premium, not no disruption premium
BTC / ETH / SOL	76,875.7 / 2,100 / 84.55	Crypto is soft and selective, not cleanly following futures higher
VIX	16.59, about -0.66% versus previous cash close	U.S. volatility is calm enough to support risk, but this is a delayed cash reference

5. Key Macro and Geopolitical Drivers

• U.S. macro and Fed expectations: No fresh Board event was visible on the official Fed calendar page we checked for Tuesday, 26 May 2026. The rates signal available to us is still mainly market-based: lower oil plus a slightly softer 10Y yield helps the disinflation story, but without a live 2Y cash print, front-end conviction is incomplete.
• ECB expectations and Eurozone data: The official ECB weekly schedule for 26 May 2026 showed euro money-market statistics at 10:00 CET and the consolidated financial statement plus weekly APP and PEPP update at 15:00 CET. These are not headline policy events, but they matter because Europe starts this session with liquidity and balance-sheet context still in view. The ECB''s monetary-policy accounts are due on Thursday, 28 May 2026.
• BOE expectations and UK data: We did not find a fresh same-day BOE speaker event in the official pages we accessed. The latest visible BOE backdrop remains Bank Rate at 3.75% and last week''s communication from Bailey and Breeden. That means GBP is likely to stay more dollar- and liquidity-driven than UK-data-driven in this London handoff.
• China growth / policy / yuan risk: No fresh, verified China policy easing headline was visible in the accessible sources for this run. USD/CNH holding near 6.79 despite softer oil says the yuan is not yet expressing a clean risk rebound.
• Japan / BOJ / JPY risk: USDJPY holding close to 159 even with a softer DXY is important. It says the yen is not functioning as a dominant safe haven at this moment, either because rate differentials still matter more or because traders do not want to press yen longs aggressively into unstable headlines.
• Indonesia / BI / IHSG / IDR: JCI lagging and USD/IDR trading higher toward 17,785 tells you EM Asia is not fully buying the relief narrative. For Indonesian readers, that matters because a renewed oil bounce or stronger DXY rebound would pressure IDR quickly.
• Geopolitics: This remains the main driver. Monday''s peace-hope narrative lowered oil, but the fresh U.S. strikes and mine-related headlines mean London is trading under a geopolitical stop-loss. Any reversal in the tone around Iran, Strait of Hormuz, or regional diplomacy can flip this session fast.

6. Asset-by-Asset Analysis

A. Forex

• Current bias: Selective USD selling versus EUR only on confirmation; keep defensive respect for USDJPY, USD/CNH, and USD/IDR strength.
• Key levels: DXY 99.04 support / 99.24 prior close / 99.50 recovery zone. EURUSD 1.1630 support / 1.1647 intraday high / 1.1660 extension. GBPUSD 1.3475 support / 1.3506 intraday high / 1.3520 extension. USDJPY 158.90 support / 159.05 intraday high / 159.50 resistance zone. AUDUSD 0.7159 support / 0.7178 resistance. USD/CNH 6.7823 support / 6.7896 resistance. USD/IDR 17,738 support / 17,785 current high.
• Bullish scenario: EURUSD and GBPUSD only improve if DXY stays below 99.24 and Europe does not revive energy fear. AUDUSD can join if CNH stabilizes.
• Bearish scenario: A geopolitical shock that lifts oil and DXY together would hit EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD fast while keeping USDJPY bid.
• Invalidation: If DXY reclaims 99.50 decisively, broad anti-dollar ideas weaken.
• What to watch: Whether USDJPY can stay below 159.10 on soft DXY, and whether CNH / IDR keep underperforming.

B. Equities

• Current bias: Selective risk-on, but do not assume Europe must chase U.S. futures.
• Key levels: NAS100 29,780 support / 29,829 intraday high / 30,000 psychological zone. ES 7,535 support / 7,542 intraday high / 7,575 extension. Reuters futures reference: Euro Stoxx 50 -0.16%, FTSE +0.20%, DAX -0.26%.
• Bullish scenario: Lower oil, softer 10Y yields, and no fresh negative Iran headline allow Europe to stabilize and U.S. futures to extend.
• Bearish scenario: Europe fades the U.S. relief trade if energy risk returns or if traders distrust the geopolitical narrative.
• Invalidation: Oil back above the early-session rebound zone and DXY back above 99.50 would weaken the risk case.
• What to watch: Relative performance between NAS100 futures and DAX / Euro Stoxx futures. If U.S. futures stay green while Europe cannot hold, that is a warning.

C. Crypto

• Current bias: Neutral to selective bullish only on confirmation; crypto is not yet proving broad macro-beta leadership.
• Key levels: BTC 76,475 intraday low / 77,906 intraday high / 78,000 reclaim zone. ETH 2,084.5 low / 2,142.0 high / 2,100 pivot. SOL 83.85 low / 86.52 high / 84.00 support zone.
• Bullish scenario: BTC reclaims 77,900-78,000 with stable or improving funding and ETH holds above 2,100.
• Bearish scenario: BTC loses 76,400 and SOL keeps underperforming with negative funding, turning the market into a deleveraging tape.
• Invalidation: Do not call a clean crypto continuation while BTC remains below 78,000.
• What to watch: Funding, open interest stability, and whether crypto follows equities or decouples lower on geopolitical stress.

D. Metals

• Current bias: Gold constructive; silver stronger but more volatile; copper only mildly positive.
• Key levels: Gold 4,523.4 low / 4,543.6 high. Silver 76.57 low / 77.21 high. Copper 6.3755 low / 6.4165 high.
• Bullish scenario: Gold can extend if oil stops falling or geopolitical headlines deteriorate while yields stay contained.
• Bearish scenario: If oil keeps sliding and DXY remains soft without fresh war stress, gold may stall rather than trend.
• Invalidation: Gold losing the 4,523 zone weakens the immediate safe-haven continuation idea.
• What to watch: Whether gold rises even while oil is down. If yes, markets are still paying for insurance.

E. Energy

• Current bias: Bearish into failed rebounds, but not complacent.
• Key levels: WTI 91.58 low / 92.55 high / 93.50 rebound cap zone. Brent 95.03 low / 95.98 high / 97.00 rebound cap zone.
• Bullish scenario: Any renewed Strait of Hormuz or mine-related supply-risk escalation can reverse the drop quickly.
• Bearish scenario: If no new escalation arrives, the market can continue stripping emergency premium.
• Invalidation: A clean move back above the early rebound cap would weaken the short-oil thesis.
• What to watch: Headlines first, charts second. Oil is still the cleanest macro expression of the geopolitical narrative.

F. Rates / bonds / macro risk

• Current bias: Mildly supportive for risk, but confirmation is incomplete.
• Key levels: U.S. 10Y near 4.558% is the usable live reference. U.S. 2Y, Bund, and Gilt live cash yields were unavailable.
• Bullish scenario: Lower oil and contained long-end yields keep risk assets supported.
• Bearish scenario: Any oil rebound or front-end repricing would hit duration-sensitive risk quickly.
• Invalidation: Without live 2Y data, do not overstate the Fed-easing interpretation.
• What to watch: Whether the next visible yield move is lower with oil lower, or higher despite oil lower. The latter would be a warning sign.

7. Biggest Alpha Opportunities

1. WTI failed-bounce short

   • Direction: Short bias
   • Time horizon: London session / intraday
   • Entry trigger: Rebound failure below 92.55, especially if headlines stay quiet
   • Invalidation: Sustained move above 93.50
   • Key target zones: 91.60 then 90.50
   • Catalyst: Continued removal of disruption premium
   • Why this setup matters: Oil is still the cleanest real-time expression of geopolitical repricing
   • Confidence: Medium
   • Risk warning: One adverse Strait of Hormuz headline can reverse the trade immediately

2. EURUSD breakout only on confirmation

   • Direction: Long bias above trigger, otherwise neutral
   • Time horizon: London session
   • Entry trigger: Clean push through 1.1647 with DXY staying below 99.24
   • Invalidation: Back below 1.1630
   • Key target zones: 1.1660 then 1.1680
   • Catalyst: Softer dollar plus no fresh energy scare
   • Why this setup matters: It expresses the softer-dollar theme without chasing already-extended U.S. equity futures
   • Confidence: Medium
   • Risk warning: A sudden oil rebound can reverse EURUSD quickly

3. Gold support-hold long

   • Direction: Long bias on support hold
   • Time horizon: Session / event-driven
   • Entry trigger: Gold holding above 4,523 after Europe opens
   • Invalidation: Break below 4,523
   • Key target zones: 4,544 then 4,560
   • Catalyst: Geopolitical risk staying sticky even as oil stays below last week''s panic highs
   • Why this setup matters: It is the clearest hedge if the market''s relief narrative fails
   • Confidence: Medium
   • Risk warning: If oil extends lower and the dollar stays soft without new war stress, gold can drift sideways instead of trending

4. BTC continuation only if 78,000 is reclaimed

   • Direction: Long bias only on confirmation
   • Time horizon: Intraday / session
   • Entry trigger: BTC reclaims 77,900-78,000 with stable funding and no spike in deleveraging
   • Invalidation: Back below 76,400
   • Key target zones: 79,500 then 80,000
   • Catalyst: U.S. futures strength and no fresh geopolitical shock
   • Why this setup matters: It tests whether crypto wants to rejoin macro beta or remain a laggard
   • Confidence: Low to Medium
   • Risk warning: ETF flow transparency was delayed in the accessible sources, so spot demand confirmation is incomplete

8. What To Watch Until New York Open

• Any new CENTCOM, Doha, Strait of Hormuz, or mine-related headline.
• Whether DXY stays below 99.24 or reclaims 99.50.
• Whether USDJPY finally respects softer DXY or keeps trading its own rate-differential story.
• Whether Europe follows U.S. futures higher or fades the handoff.
• Whether WTI can keep trading below 92.55 and Brent below 96.00.
• Whether gold remains firm even as oil is weaker.
• Whether CNH and IDR stabilize or continue to show Asia / EM stress.
• Whether BTC can reclaim 78,000 without a funding blowout.
• Immediate handoff risk after New York opens: U.S. consumer-confidence and Richmond Fed data land soon after the London window and can still rewrite the tone.

9. Event Calendar Until New York Open

Event	Country / region	Time WIB	Expected impact	Assets affected	Consensus / previous	Bullish / bearish read
Euro area money / liquidity statistics on the official ECB weekly schedule	Euro Area	15:00 WIB	Medium	EUR, front-end Europe rates, European equities	Consensus was not visible in the accessed official page	EUR-positive only if liquidity / rate interpretation supports a firmer Europe-rate path; softer implications are EUR-negative
ECB Financial Stability Review special feature release	Euro Area	15:00 WIB	Medium	EUR, banks, broader Europe risk sentiment	No consensus / previous framing in the accessed page	Hawkish-stability framing can pressure risk; calm language can help Europe hold the open
Hungary interest-rate decision	Hungary / CEE	Approximately 19:00 WIB based on the accessible economic-calendar timezone	Medium	HUF, CEE FX, broader EMFX tone	Previous visible reference: 6.25%	A steadier / less-dovish result can support HUF and help EMFX; a softer tone can weigh on regional FX
ECB consolidated financial statement plus weekly APP / PEPP update	Euro Area	20:00 WIB	Low to Medium	EUR, liquidity-sensitive Europe rates	No market consensus applies	Mostly a liquidity backdrop item; only surprising balance-sheet interpretation would move price

10. Trader and Investor Playbook

For short-term traders

• Preferred stance: Selective risk, with explicit invalidation on every position.
• Strongest immediate assets: U.S. equity futures, EURUSD on confirmed breakout, and gold as a hedge.
• Weakest immediate assets: Oil on failed rebounds and SOL relative to BTC / ETH.
• Do not chase: The first Europe move in either direction.
• Better entries: Let oil retest failed-bounce zones, let EURUSD prove 1.1647, and let BTC prove 78,000.
• Base case: London is more likely to probe and retest Asia''s move than trend cleanly from the open.

For medium-term investors

• Preferred stance: Wait for confirmation, not fear-of-missing-out.
• Stronger medium-term signals: Lower oil and slightly lower long-end yields are constructive for risk if they persist beyond today''s headline window.
• Weaker medium-term signals: Gold staying firm and Asia FX stress lingering mean this is not yet a fully trusted macro-risk reset.
• Where not to chase: Any early Europe equity strength that is not supported by calmer geopolitical headlines.
• Where to wait: Better levels in oil, cleaner confirmation in EURUSD, and post-open confirmation from U.S. data and yields.
• London versus Asia: London can still continue the relief trade, but the probability of a fade is too high to treat this as a one-way session.

11. Risks and Invalidations

• A new negative Iran / Strait of Hormuz escalation headline.
• A sharp rebound in oil that drags DXY and yields higher together.
• A front-end U.S. repricing once deeper U.S. participants return.
• Europe failing to follow U.S. futures higher.
• Gold breaking lower, which would remove an important hedge signal.
• BTC losing 76,400 and dragging broader crypto into deleveraging.
• CNH or IDR weakening further and reminding traders that Asia stress is not resolved.
• Hidden liquidity gaps because several inputs are still headline-driven rather than data-driven.

12. Source and Evidence Summary

• Market data used: Yahoo Finance chart data for FX, DXY proxy, equity indices / futures, metals, oil, and VIX; Binance public spot and futures endpoints for BTC, ETH, SOL, funding, and open interest.
• News used: Metavulus Realtime News internal API; AP market coverage; Reuters market coverage surfaced via web results / Marketscreener mirrors.
• Internal Metavulus Intelligence used: Realtime News timestamps and headline sequence around the southern-Iran strike headlines.
• Official calendars used: ECB weekly schedule; Federal Reserve Board calendar; Bank of England official site / recent communication pages.
• Other calendar references used: Accessible economic-calendar pages for same-day timing cross-checks.
• Unavailable or delayed sources: Prime Markets terminal, MRKT Edge via Chrome, live U.S. 2Y cash yield, live Bund / Gilt cash yields, European gas, verified live credit-spread feed, and clean same-day crypto ETF flow data.

Risk warning: This report is an evidence-led market-preparation note, not a guarantee of outcome. The session is highly exposed to geopolitical whipsaw, thin confirmation, and false breaks.