New York Session Market Analysis - Thursday, August 13, 2026

1. Header

• Title: New York Session Market Analysis
• Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
• Timestamp: Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:11 WIB | 13 Aug 2026 11:11 UTC
• Coverage window: Asia session, London session, U.S. pre-market, New York cash session, and early after-hours handoff.
• Data freshness note: Quote snapshot was captured around Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:11 WIB / 13 Aug 2026 11:11 UTC from public and delayed feeds. U.S. PPI, jobless claims, Fed speakers, and the 30-year Treasury auction are still ahead, so this is a pre-event desk plan, not a post-event recap.
• Session bias: Mixed, with selective risk-on in AI/semis but high macro event risk.

2. Executive Summary

• Softer July U.S. CPI prevented a fresh hawkish shock, leaving Nasdaq and Russell futures mildly bid into New York.
• The real New York test is still ahead: U.S. PPI and jobless claims at 08:30 ET, followed by Fed speakers and a 30-year bond auction.
• DXY is firm but not trending aggressively; EURUSD and GBPUSD are holding up, while USDJPY is back above 159 and closer to the zone where intervention risk becomes non-trivial.
• Yields are mixed rather than collapsing: the 2Y is near 4.18% while the 10Y sits around 4.68%, so duration is not getting an all-clear yet.
• AI leadership remains intact, but broad mega-cap breadth is not clean: NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, SMCI, and CoreWeave are strong while AAPL, GOOGL, META, and AMZN lag.
• Oil is softer on inventory and demand concerns, but Hormuz risk is still a macro spoiler if headlines turn worse.
• Crypto is underperforming equities; BTC, ETH, and SOL are down on the day while funding remains relatively contained rather than euphoric.
• Best alpha is still conditional alpha: buy quality risk only if PPI and yields cooperate, and fade overstretched USDJPY if 160 starts drawing intervention fear.

3. What Happened Before New York

Asia session

• Asia was mixed but not panicked. Japan outperformed sharply, with the Nikkei 225 up about 4.0%, while Singapore also finished higher.
• China was softer: the Shanghai Composite fell about 0.3% and Hang Seng lost about 0.5%.
• Indonesia underperformed; the JCI / IHSG fell about 1.68%, signaling that local risk appetite stayed weaker than North Asia.
• USDJPY reclaimed 159+, reinforcing that carry demand remains alive even after the prior U.S. CPI release.

London session

• Europe leaned constructive but uneven. The DAX rose about 1.28% and Euro Stoxx 50 gained about 0.70%, while FTSE 100 fell about 0.55% and CAC 40 slipped about 0.28%.
• London broadly confirmed the post-CPI “no fresh inflation panic” read rather than fading it, but upside was not broad enough to call it a full risk-on impulse.
• Spain’s final July CPI printed a bit hotter, and desk commentary also showed the market discussing another possible ECB hike in September, which helped keep European rates thinking hawkish even as U.S. CPI cooled.

U.S. pre-market handoff

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 0.49%, S&P 500 futures about 0.11%, Russell 2000 futures about 1.12%, while Dow futures lag at about -0.14%.
• The pattern matters: small caps and AI/semis are doing more of the work than classic defensives or old-economy industrial tone.
• VIX near 14.6 says the market is calm into the data cluster, but that also means volatility can expand quickly if PPI or the 30Y auction disappoints.

Rates, commodities, crypto, and headline flow

• MarketWatch/Treasury-linked public bond quotes show the U.S. 2Y near 4.18% and the 10Y near 4.68%.
• Gold remains firm but not cleanly broken out; desk color had spot gold around the upper 4,370s to 4,380s while December futures trade near 4,451.
• WTI is around 81.50 and Brent around 87.23, both softer on the day.
• EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed U.S. commercial crude inventories up 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels for the week ending August 7.
• Binance spot data shows BTC around 63,654, ETH around 1,883, and SOL around 75.73, all lower on the day.
• Internal realtime news stayed focused on three themes: benign U.S. CPI aftermath, AI/earnings leadership, and unresolved U.S.-Iran / Hormuz geopolitical risk.

4. New York Open Market Snapshot

Asset	Approx. level	Day move	Interpretation
NAS100 futures	29,883.5	+0.49%	Growth still has a bid, but it is event-sensitive.
S&P 500 futures	7,785.25	+0.11%	Positive, but not broad enough to call a clean trend day yet.
Dow futures	53,990	-0.14%	Old-economy leadership is weaker than tech/small-cap tone.
Russell 2000 futures	3,059	+1.12%	Small-cap relative strength improves if yields stay contained.
DXY	99.90	+0.09%	Dollar is firm, but not squeezing everything lower yet.
EURUSD	1.1539	+0.12%	Euro is still absorbing dollar firmness.
GBPUSD	1.3491	+0.27%	Sterling holds up well despite broader macro caution.
USDJPY	159.33	+0.58%	Carry demand is back, but 160 is an intervention-risk magnet.
U.S. 2Y	4.18%	slightly lower vs prior close	Front-end hawkishness cooled after CPI, but not fully gone.
U.S. 10Y	4.68%	roughly flat to slightly higher	Long-end remains sticky ahead of the 30Y auction.
VIX	14.6	-2.0%	Calm backdrop into event risk; watch for expansion.
Gold Dec futures	4,451	+2.05%	Safe-haven and softer-CPI support are helping, but breakout confirmation still matters.
WTI	81.50	-0.77%	Inventory and demand concerns are pressuring oil, though geopolitics can reverse it fast.
BTC	63,654	-0.75%

Sector and mega-cap tone

• Stronger tape: NVDA +2.22%, MSFT +1.02%, TSLA +1.85%, MU +2.03%, SMCI +24.04%, CoreWeave +19.85%.
• Weaker tape: AAPL -2.81%, AMZN -1.97%, META -1.68%, GOOGL -5.21%.
• Read: leadership is concentrated, so traders should not confuse index resilience with universally healthy breadth.

5. Key Macro and Geopolitical Drivers

U.S. macro and Fed expectations

• July CPI did not produce a fresh upside inflation shock, which took some immediate heat out of September hike pricing.
• Desk and market coverage suggest September hike odds were trimmed from around the mid-50s before CPI toward roughly the mid-30s to around 40% afterward.
• That helps equities at the margin, but PPI is the next inflation checkpoint and can quickly revive the hawkish conversation if producer prices re-accelerate.

Treasury yields and liquidity

• The front end softened more than the long end, which means the market is less afraid of an immediate Fed lurch but still uneasy about inflation, supply, and term premium.
• Today’s 30-year Treasury bond auction matters because weak demand could push the long end higher and hit tech multiples even if the data is only mildly firm.

Earnings and sector leadership

• AI/compute leadership is still the cleanest equity theme.
• However, the tape is not universally strong, and concentrated leadership raises fragility risk if yields jump or post-earnings dispersion widens.

European carryover

• Europe mostly confirmed the post-CPI global relief tone rather than rejecting it.
• Still, hotter Spain inflation and ECB hike discussion prevent Europe from becoming a pure disinflation tailwind.

Asia risk and intervention watch

• USDJPY back above 159 keeps intervention risk relevant.
• A move toward 160 can spill into broader FX and risk assets because traders remember that official action can appear quickly when yen weakness accelerates.

Oil and geopolitics

• Oil is softer today, but that is a fragile softness.
• Hormuz-related supply fear remains unresolved, so any worse headline can reprice oil, inflation expectations, yields, and risk assets together.

Crypto-specific risk

• Crypto is not getting full support from the equity bounce.
• Funding on Binance is modestly positive for BTC and ETH and slightly negative for SOL, which means leverage is not screaming euphoric, but price structure is still soft.
• ETF flow dashboards and broad aggregated liquidation maps were unavailable in this run, so crypto flow conclusions should stay conservative.

6. Asset-by-Asset Analysis

A. Forex

DXY

• Bias: Neutral-to-firm.
• Key levels: 99.70 support, 100.20 resistance.
• Bullish scenario: Hot PPI or weak 30Y auction lifts yields and pushes DXY through 100.20.
• Bearish scenario: Benign PPI plus softer yields drags DXY back under 99.70.
• Invalidation: If yields fail to confirm a dollar breakout, do not chase USD strength.
• Watch: 2Y/10Y reaction, risk sentiment, and whether USD strength is broad or only JPY-led.

EURUSD

• Bias: Mildly constructive while above 1.1500.
• Key levels: 1.1500, 1.1565, 1.1600.
• Bullish scenario: Soft PPI and contained yields open 1.1565 then 1.1600.
• Bearish scenario: Dollar squeeze after data breaks 1.1500.
• Invalidation: Sustained failure above 1.1545-1.1565 after soft data.
• Watch: Data surprise and long-dollar demand into New York.

GBPUSD

• Bias: Mildly bullish above 1.3450.
• Key levels: 1.3450, 1.3520, 1.3560.
• Bullish scenario: Risk stays stable and USD softens after data.
• Bearish scenario: U.S. yields jump and cable loses 1.3450.
• Invalidation: If sterling cannot hold gains despite supportive global risk.
• Watch: Relative USD move more than UK-specific impulse.

USDJPY

• Bias: Structurally bullish but tactically dangerous near 160.
• Key levels: 159.00, 159.80, 160.00, 158.80.
• Bullish scenario: Yields rise and pair squeezes toward 160.
• Bearish scenario: Any official warning or yield pullback drives a sharp rejection below 159.00.
• Invalidation: Do not press longs aggressively once intervention rhetoric escalates.
• Watch: U.S. yields, official comments, and price behavior near 160.

AUDUSD / CNH / IDR

• AUDUSD bias: Constructive above 0.7030, with 0.7080 upside if risk holds.
• USDCNH / USDCNY bias: Slightly softer USD if 6.75 stays capped; reversal risk grows above 6.78.
• USDIDR bias: Softer toward 17,800 if broad USD stays contained; reversal risk rises above 17,950.

B. U.S. equities

NAS100 / NQ

• Bias: Constructive but event-sensitive.
• Key levels: 29,700-29,750 support, 30,000 psychological resistance.
• Bullish scenario: Benign PPI, stable yields, AI leadership intact.
• Bearish scenario: Hot PPI or weak 30Y auction pushes yields higher and breaks 29,650.
• Invalidation: If semis stop leading while long-end yields rise.
• Watch: NVDA/AI breadth, 10Y reaction, and post-data dip behavior.

S&P 500 / ES

• Bias: Mildly constructive above 7,750.
• Key levels: 7,750, 7,810, 7,850.
• Bullish scenario: Broadening participation beyond AI and softer rates.
• Bearish scenario: Back below 7,740 on macro disappointment.
• Watch: Breadth at cash open and whether cyclicals confirm tech.

Dow / Russell

• Dow bias: Lagging; stronger above 54,100, weaker if value cannot confirm risk-on.
• Russell bias: Relative-strength candidate if yields stay contained; 3,025 is the key support and 3,080 the first upside zone.

C. Global equities summary, including IHSG/JCI

• Japan: Strongest major Asia read today; supports the idea that the global growth/tech trade is not broken.
• China / Hong Kong: Softer and less convincing; regional confidence is still selective.
• Europe: Moderately supportive but mixed under the surface.
• Indonesia (IHSG/JCI): Weakness versus regional peers suggests domestic and EM beta are not getting a clean risk-on pass.
• Takeaway: Global equities are not synchronized enough to justify blind chasing in New York.

D. Crypto

BTC

• Bias: Cautious below 64,500-64,800.
• Key levels: 63,300, 64,500, 65,500.
• Bullish scenario: Reclaim of 64,500-64,800 with stable macro tone.
• Bearish scenario: Break below 63,300 opens room toward the mid-62,000s.
• Invalidation: If equities rip higher and BTC still cannot reclaim 64,500.
• Watch: Binance funding, U.S. rates, and whether ETF-related headlines emerge.

ETH

• Bias: Soft below 1,900.
• Key levels: 1,873, 1,900, 1,925, 1,960.
• Watch: Whether ETH can follow BTC on any macro relief move.

SOL

• Bias: High-beta and vulnerable.
• Key levels: 75.35, 76.50, 77.30.
• Watch: Negative-to-flat funding means no squeeze edge yet; need clean price reclaim first.

E. Metals

Gold

• Bias: Constructive but not cleared for a blind breakout.
• Key levels: spot 4,325 support, spot 4,387-4,400 resistance; Dec futures 4,450 confirmation zone.
• Bullish scenario: Soft PPI, easier yields, or worse geopolitical headlines.
• Bearish scenario: Hot data and higher real yields.
• Invalidation: Failure near resistance while yields firm.
• Watch: 2Y/10Y, dollar reaction, and geopolitical headlines.

Silver

• Bias: Range-trade unless gold confirms a larger move.
• Key levels: roughly 64.5 to 66.0.

F. Energy

WTI / Brent

• Bias: Tactically soft, structurally headline-sensitive.
• Key levels: WTI 80.5 / 82.2 / 84.0; Brent 85.8 / 88.5.
• Bullish scenario: Fresh supply-risk escalation.
• Bearish scenario: Demand worries plus inventory pressure keep the curve heavy.
• Invalidation: Any worsening Hormuz headline can instantly break the bearish oil setup.
• Watch: Geopolitics first, then EIA follow-through and macro demand tone.

G. Rates / bonds / macro risk

• Bias: Long-end remains the more dangerous piece of the macro puzzle.
• Bullish risk-asset scenario: PPI behaves, claims do not reprice hawkishness, and the 30Y auction is well absorbed.
• Bearish risk-asset scenario: PPI runs hot or the 30Y auction tails badly, steepening the curve and hurting duration-sensitive assets.
• Watch: 2Y near 4.18%, 10Y near 4.68%, and how the curve reacts after 08:30 ET.

H. Volatility and positioning

• VIX: 14.6 implies calm, not safety.
• FX options: Desk commentary highlighted EURUSD strikes around 1.1500-1.1550 and USDJPY interest near 159.00.
• Unavailable data: MOVE index, credit spreads, dealer gamma, and full institutional positioning dashboards were unavailable in this run.

7. Biggest Alpha Opportunities

1. NAS100 post-PPI dip buy

• Asset: NAS100 futures
• Bias: Bullish only on confirmation
• Time horizon: Intraday / session
• Entry trigger: Post-data hold of 29,700-29,750 with yields stable to lower
• Invalidation: Break and acceptance below 29,650
• Target zones: 29,950 then 30,000+
• Catalyst: Benign PPI, contained long-end yields, AI leadership intact
• Why it matters: NQ is still the cleanest expression of the current equity leadership regime
• Confidence: Medium
• Risk warning: A weak 30Y auction can reverse a good first reaction fast

2. USDJPY spike fade into 160

• Asset: USDJPY
• Bias: Bearish tactical fade near extremes
• Time horizon: Intraday / event-driven
• Entry trigger: Rejection signal in 159.80-160.00 area
• Invalidation: Clean acceptance above 160 with no intervention rhetoric
• Target zones: 159.20 then 158.80
• Catalyst: Intervention fear and/or yield pullback
• Why it matters: This is the cleanest asymmetric FX setup if the market overreaches
• Confidence: Medium
• Risk warning: Do not fade blindly before confirmation; momentum can squeeze hard first

3. Gold breakout continuation only on confirmation

• Asset: Gold
• Bias: Bullish only above resistance
• Time horizon: Session / swing
• Entry trigger: Spot holds above 4,387-4,400 or Dec futures clear and hold above 4,450
• Invalidation: Quick failure back below breakout zone
• Target zones: 4,450 spot-equivalent area then higher toward the next trend extension
• Catalyst: Soft PPI, lower yields, or worse geopolitical headlines
• Why it matters: Gold still has the cleanest hedge appeal if macro and geopolitics align
• Confidence: Medium
• Risk warning: Hot PPI can crush the breakout thesis quickly

4. WTI tactical short below 82.20

• Asset: WTI crude
• Bias: Bearish tactical
• Time horizon: Intraday / session
• Entry trigger: Failure rallies below 82.20
• Invalidation: Reclaim of 82.80-83.00 on stronger headline flow
• Target zones: 80.50 then 79s if risk-off broadens and demand worries persist
• Catalyst: EIA inventory build and softer demand tone
• Why it matters: Oil is the fastest macro spoiler if it abruptly reverses, so the level matters
• Confidence: Medium
• Risk warning: Geopolitical headlines can completely invalidate the short in minutes

5. BTC reclaim long only if 64,500-64,800 flips back

• Asset: BTC
• Bias: Conditional bullish reclaim setup
• Time horizon: Intraday / session
• Entry trigger: Reclaim and hold above 64,500-64,800
• Invalidation: Failure back below 64,200
• Target zones: 65,500 then 66,000
• Catalyst: Softer yields and broader risk-on continuation
• Why it matters: Crypto is lagging; reclaim strength would tell you beta is broadening again
• Confidence: Low-to-medium
• Risk warning: Without the reclaim, BTC remains a laggard and can underperform even if equities rise

8. What To Watch During New York

• U.S. PPI and jobless claims at 08:30 ET / 19:30 WIB.
• Fed’s Hammack at 08:15 ET / 19:15 WIB and Barkin at 08:40 ET / 19:40 WIB.
• The 30-year Treasury bond auction at 13:00 ET on August 13 / 00:00 WIB on August 14.
• Whether cash-open breadth confirms futures strength or narrows back into semis only.
• NVDA, SMCI, CoreWeave, and broader AI/semiconductor leadership.
• Russell 2000 behavior relative to Nasdaq; this helps judge whether the move is broadening.
• DXY and Treasury direction after PPI.
• VIX above or below the 15-16.5 zone.
• Oil headlines tied to Hormuz and U.S.-Iran developments.
• Gold reaction to real yields and safe-haven demand.
• Crypto price action around BTC 63,300 and 64,500.

9. Event Calendar for the U.S. Session

Event	Region	Time WIB	Time New York	Impact	Assets	Consensus / previous	Bullish vs bearish read
Fed Hammack remarks	U.S.	19:15 Thu	08:15 ET Thu	Medium	USD, yields, indices	No market consensus value	Softer/data-dependent tone helps risk; hawkish inflation concern supports USD/yields
U.S. PPI for July	U.S.	19:30 Thu	08:30 ET Thu	High	USD, yields, gold, NQ, ES	PPI y/y 4.9% vs 5.5% prior; PPI m/m 0.2% vs -0.3%; core y/y 4.1% vs 4.7%; core m/m 0.3% vs 0.2%	Softer print helps rates/growth/gold; hotter print revives hawkish repricing
Initial jobless claims	U.S.	19:30 Thu	08:30 ET Thu	Medium	USD, yields, equities	202K expected vs 199K prior; continuing 1.794M vs 1.801M prior	Slightly softer labor with contained inflation helps risk; too-strong labor can reinforce hawkishness
Fed Barkin remarks	U.S.	19:40 Thu	08:40 ET Thu	Medium	USD, yields, indices	No market consensus value	Balanced tone helps calm; hawkish inflation rhetoric pressures risk assets
30Y Treasury bond auction	U.S.	00:00 Fri	13:00 ET Thu	High	10Y/30Y yields, NQ, gold, USD	Scheduled Treasury supply event	Strong demand supports duration and growth; weak demand lifts long-end yields and pressures tech

10. Trader and Investor Playbook

For short-term traders

• Preferred stance: selective risk, not blind risk-on.
• Strongest assets: NAS100, Russell 2000, selected AI/semis if PPI and yields cooperate.
• Weakest assets: oil on a tactical basis, crypto on a relative-strength basis, and any stretched USDJPY spike near 160.
• Do not chase: first move immediately after PPI if yields and DXY are not confirming.
• Better entry style: wait for data reaction, then trade the retest if structure holds.
• Base case: New York can continue London’s constructive tone only if the long end stays calm.
• Risk management: reduce size around 08:30 ET and respect the 13:00 ET auction window.

For medium-term investors

• Preferred stance: selective risk with discipline.
• Strongest medium-term theme: AI infrastructure and compute-linked leaders.
• Weakest medium-term theme today: broad beta that still depends on lower long-end yields and stable oil.
• Avoid chasing extended winners if the 30Y auction or inflation data pushes yields higher.
• Better approach: add on confirmed pullbacks rather than on event-front-running.
• Key question: does New York broaden participation beyond semis, or does leadership narrow further?

11. Risks and Invalidations

• Hot U.S. PPI that revives September hike pricing.
• Fed speakers leaning more hawkish than the post-CPI market assumes.
• A weak 30-year auction that lifts long-end yields sharply.
• Sudden USD surge that breaks EURUSD/GBPUSD support and pressures gold and crypto.
• VIX expansion above the mid-teens that invalidates the calm pre-open backdrop.
• Fresh geopolitical escalation around Iran / Hormuz that abruptly reverses oil and cross-asset pricing.
• Late-session liquidity reversal after the bond auction.
• Crypto liquidation cascade if BTC loses 63,300 and macro beta de-risks together.

12. Source and Evidence Summary

• Market data used: Yahoo Finance public chart endpoints for cross-asset snapshots; Binance spot and perpetual endpoints for BTC/ETH/SOL price, funding, and open interest; CoinGecko and Alternative.me for crypto context; public Treasury / MarketWatch bond quote references.
• News used: Metavulus internal realtime news feed generated at 2026-08-13T11:02:44.417Z, including FinancialJuice, Walter Bloomberg, InvestingLive, and Investing Stocks items routed through approved feed collection.
• Official / public calendar and data used: BLS PPI release schedule, Treasury auction schedule and refunding statement, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
• Internal Metavulus intelligence used: privacy-safe headline aggregation only; no private user data was used or exposed.
• Unavailable sources: Prime Markets terminal unavailable in this environment; MRKT Edge via Chrome was unavailable because the page failed to open with SSL error; exact live CME FedWatch panel, MOVE, broad credit spreads, dealer gamma, and broad ETF-flow dashboards were unavailable and are therefore not asserted here.

Risk note: This report is educational market analysis, not investment advice. Use confirmation, invalidation, execution quality, and personal risk limits before taking any trade.