CORE REGIME — Brent >$100, 10-year yields ~4.837% (highest since Nov 2023) and US–Iran / maritime escalation keep a risk-off overlay into ECB, PPI and CPI. Treasury buyback max US$6bn disappointed vs ~US$10bn hopes (still 3× old US$2bn) — sell-the-fact vs 19 Aug. Fed Hike 63.21% unchanged vs 9 Sep. AUD strongest FX final (+2); NZD and CHF weakest (−3). CAD improves to neutral (0) on the oil cushion. Scenario Distribution unchanged vs 9 Sep across all eight CBs.
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