Daily Research
The notable file, as of 16:50 EDT, has the SPX down 0.20% at 7,656 and the NDX up 0.23% at 30,409. The DJI lost 0.86% to 50,909 and the RUT slipped 0.38% to 2,797. ES Dec was down 0.1% and NQ Dec up 0.4% in that snapshot. Those are not the futures closes: the market file has no 30 Sep close for ES, NQ, WTI or gold. DXY in the market file closed at 101.450, up 0.08%. The same snapshot has the US 10-year at 5.29% and the German 10-year at 3.58%. FRED, which is the yield used for scoring, is still the 29 Sep print: nominal 5.26% and real 2.91%.
Axios says Rubio ordered Iran's UNGA delegation, including Foreign Minister Araghchi, to leave after talks stalled. The delegation flew from New York to Doha. Trump said there have been historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in the last three days and that the US has almost total control of the Strait. A White House deputy said a deal remains possible. UKMTO said an LNG tanker was struck on 29 Sep inside the Strait. Yemeni forces were reported to have attacked Abqaiq. Iran's civil defence raised readiness at 46 facilities. OPEC+ is reportedly set to keep output targets unchanged on Sunday. There is no separate oil-supply file. This is the whole on-record set.
The notable file has headline PCE at 3.4% vs 3.7% vs 3.4% and core PCE y/y at 3.0% vs 3.3% vs 3.0%. Personal income was 0.2% vs 0.4% and spending 0.9% vs 0.8%. ADP in that file is 90K vs 70K vs 38K; the board, which is what the ledger uses, is 90K vs 73K vs 36K. Chicago PMI was 58.8 vs 51.2. Kashkari said inflation is still too high and around a 3% rate, and that the neutral rate could be higher than assumed. After Williams and the soft PCE, the notable file puts the October hike near 40%, versus about 70% before his remarks. The pricing board is the figure used here: Hike 43.87%.
UK GDP q/q was revised to 0.5% vs 0.4%. Burnham again left rejoining the EU on the table. German CPI y/y was 3.3% vs 3.2%, French CPI y/y 3.0% vs 2.8%, and Italian CPI y/y 4.2% vs 3.8%. Lagarde called France's debt serious at 120% of GDP. The BoJ Summary of Opinions said it is appropriate to keep raising rates with the economy, and also that there is no need to hurry. Takaichi said the government will clarify the fiscal path. Katayama said she sees no big difference with the BoJ on the economy and prices.
Core PCE m/m is behind us: 0.2% vs 0.3% vs 0.1% on the board, a high miss. ADP was a medium beat at 90K vs 73K vs 36K. Final GDP q/q beat at 2.2% vs 1.5% vs 1.5%, and the GDP price index missed at 6.1% vs 6.4% vs 6.4%. Those four high and medium prints net to nothing, so the data score does not move. The notable file still has a softer set of ADP comparators, 70K and 38K, and a different GDP previous, 2.1%. The ledger stays with the board.
DXY closed at 101.450, up 0.08% on the day and 0.35% on the week. EUR/USD closed at 1.13408. The notable snapshot had DXY up 0.1% at 101.45 and the October hike near 40% after Williams, versus about 70% before him. Kashkari, a 2026 voter, said inflation is still too high, around a 3% rate, and that a strong economy makes him question how restrictive policy is. NFP is Friday 2 Oct. It is not on today's calendar. The live US prints are claims at 19:30 WIB and ISM at 21:00 WIB.
ING Research: "For now, it argues against any material dollar correction". one bank leans bullish (28–30 Sep). That is not enough for a bank score. The KBC dollar block is the same stale 1.2349 target as on 30 Sep and is excluded. Natixis only recorded that DXY edged up 0.11% to 101.50. Crédit Agricole CIB says the dollar remains bid and also that it is overbought, so that page is not counted as a lean.
Current scenario: Hike 43.87% / Hold 56.13%. Prior (30 Sep daily): Hike 50.35% / Hold 49.65%. Delta Hike -6.48pp. Meeting 28 Oct. Current rate 3.8750%.
German prelim CPI m/m was the only medium euro-area surprise, 0.6% vs 0.5% vs 0.2%. The y/y figures in the notable file were firmer too: Germany 3.3% vs 3.2%, France 3.0% vs 2.8%, Italy 4.2% vs 3.8%. They were not on the high or medium rows of the 30 Sep board, so they stay out of the surprise score. EUR/USD closed at 1.13408, down 0.28% and 31.9 pips, and down 107.1 pips on the week.
ING's FX Daily, quoted on the dollar card, says the drop under the summer lows was dollar-driven and that another big break lower is not the base case, with 1.10 only if the Fed hikes in October and stays hawkish. That is not a clean lean, so ING is not counted here. The same FX Daily is not quoted again. The OAT playbook is quoted once, below.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "We are moderately bearish on EUR/USD from current levels". MUFG: "the call for an October hike looks shakier". Crédit Agricole CIB: "OATs are the EGB market's most acute expression of the global bond rout's fiscal stress test". 2 of 2 banks lean bearish (28–30 Sep). The KBC EUR/USD block still targets 1.2349 and is excluded as stale boilerplate. MUFG tracks euro-area HICP at 3.8% and says October is still live, but the bar has moved higher and pricing is under 30% in that note, against 41.11% on today's board.
Current scenario: Hike 41.11% / Hold 58.89%. Prior (30 Sep daily): Hike 42.31% / Hold 57.69%. Delta Hike -1.20pp. Meeting 29 Oct. Current rate 2.5000%.
Final GDP q/q was revised up to 0.5% vs 0.4% vs 0.4%. It is a low-impact print, so the surprise score does not move. GBP/USD closed at 1.32328, down 0.16% and 21.6 pips, and down 110.4 pips on the week. MUFG says the pound is consolidating just above the 1.3200-level and that Q3 growth was revised to 0.4% from 0.1%.
Burnham told the Labour conference he will set out options for a new EU relationship, and his spokesman did not rule out rejoining. KBC records him saying Brexit has done more harm than good. That is a political note, not a sterling call. The KBC EUR/GBP block still has the Bank of England on a cutting cycle from a 4% policy rate. The board rate is 3.7500% and hike odds are 81.87%. That block is excluded as stale boilerplate.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "stagflation risks could still be net negative for the GBP". MUFG: "it's getting harder to avoid rate hikes". 2 of 2 banks do not agree (28–30 Sep). Crédit Agricole stays underweight. MUFG's forecast is a BoE hike in November, which matches the board more than the excluded KBC cycle does. Retail is 60% short.
Current scenario: Hike 81.87% / Hold 18.13%. Prior (30 Sep daily): Hike 79.43% / Hold 20.57%. Delta Hike +2.44pp. Meeting 5 Nov. Current rate 3.7500%.
Three high misses: CPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.5% vs 1.0%, CPI y/y 4.0% vs 4.1% vs 3.5%, trimmed mean 0.2% vs 0.3% vs 0.5%. KBC says housing rose 5.7% and transport 5.6%, and that trimmed mean y/y stabilised at 3.6%. The RBA had already hiked to 4.60% on 29 Sep. Bullock said she hopes this move into restrictive territory will suffice. Year-end hike odds in that note dipped to 40%. The November contract on today's board is the comparable meeting: Hike 29.61%, down 6.33pp from 35.94%.
AUD/USD closed at 0.69890, down 0.39% and 27.4 pips, and down 123.1 pips on the week. KBC has the pair extending toward the February channel base at 0.6865/34. Goods trade already printed 0.50B vs 2.00B vs 1.35B. That is low impact. The CPI gate on yesterday's AUD/NZD card was not met.
Westpac: "Westpac Economics now views a November rate hike as the base case". KBC: "Markets reverse more hawkish bets this morning". 2 of 2 banks do not agree (28–30 Sep). Westpac's base case is a November hike, on energy prices and cost pass-through. KBC describes the hawkish bets being reversed and the spot decline. The Crédit Agricole AUD pages say the currency is losing its advantage and also that the RBA may still have to raise rates, so that document is not counted.
Current scenario: Hike 29.61% / Hold 70.39%. Prior (30 Sep daily): Hike 35.94% / Hold 64.06%. Delta Hike -6.33pp. Meeting 3 Nov. Current rate 4.6000%.
Building consents printed 5.6% against a previous -4.5%, with no forecast on the board, so there is no surprise score. NZD/USD closed at 0.56408, down 0.40% and 22.7 pips, and down 83.7 pips on the week. Crédit Agricole says New Zealand has a negative exposure to higher global energy prices, that the output gap has closed, and that the currency looks modestly overvalued while the market is still very short.
The same outlook says gradual withdrawal of stimulus is a near-term weight, and also that the RBNZ is underestimating inflation and will have to re-accelerate hikes. The near-term line is the one counted. No second bank has a New Zealand page in this pack. Hike odds fell 9.56pp to 62.17%. That is the research lean, and positioning agrees with it.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "Gradual withdrawal of stimulus by the RBNZ is a near-term weight on the NZD". one bank leans bearish (28–30 Sep). Retail is 85% long and speculators cut 3.4pp. Both point the same way as the repricing.
Current scenario: Hike 62.17% / Hold 37.83%. Prior (30 Sep daily): Hike 71.73% / Hold 28.27%. Delta Hike -9.56pp. Meeting 28 Oct. Current rate 2.7500%.
Canada was on a bank holiday on the 30 Sep board. There is no surprise score. USD/CAD closed at 1.41913, up 0.10% and 14.2 pips, and up 125.6 pips on the week. Reuters, in the same pack, had the dollar up 0.11% at C$1.4187 and the TSX down 0.08% at 35,460.27, with July GDP flat and an August flash of 0.2%.
That Reuters page is a news file, not a house view, so it is not counted. The trade story in the pack is the one that matters for the currency: a re-ignited US-Canada trade spat and a more hawkish Fed have pushed USD/CAD back toward the early-summer highs, and the currency has not really benefited from a lower beta to US rates. Hike odds did not move.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "Renewed US-Canada trade tensions could leave the CAD on the back foot in the near term". one bank leans bearish (28–30 Sep). Retail is 60% long and speculators cut 4.2pp. The research lean itself is flat because one bank is not a score. The final lean is positioning.
Current scenario: Hike 53.88% / Hold 46.12%. Prior (30 Sep daily): Hike 53.88% / Hold 46.12%. Delta Hike 0.00pp. Meeting 28 Oct. Current rate 2.2500%.
The BoJ Summary of Opinions is out. One member said it is appropriate to keep raising rates with the economy. Another said there is no need to hurry, and another said the Bank should not be overly cautious given upside inflation risks. Tankan manufacturing was 24 vs 25 vs 22 and non-manufacturing 35 vs 36 vs 37. Both are low impact. Final PMI was 54.1 vs 54.1 vs 54.1. USD/JPY closed at 157.404, up 0.03% and 4.3 pips, and down 6.0 pips on the week.
Hike odds fell 4.45pp to 31.55%, short of the 5pp line, so the policy score does not move. The notable file has the pair trading both sides of 157.00 before finishing with the dollar. Crédit Agricole's economics note says the Bank is ahead of the curve, not behind it. The FX outlook says the glacial pace of hikes is keeping the yen down, and also that GPIF buying of JGBs could pull USD/JPY toward 150 by end-2026. Those two horizons do not make one near-term lean.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "USD/JPY will struggle to head lower". one bank is not a clean lean (28–30 Sep). The sentence is the near-term line. The same document expects USD/JPY to track lower to 150 if the GPIF shifts. Retail is 76% short, which is the final lean. Speculators cut 2.3pp, inside the no-signal band.
Current scenario: Hike 31.55% / Hold 68.45%. Prior (30 Sep daily): Hike 36.00% / Hold 64.00%. Delta Hike -4.45pp. Meeting 30 Oct. Current rate 1.2500%.
No high or medium Swiss print is on the realised board. USD/CHF closed at 0.83422, up 0.30% and 25.0 pips, and up 134.0 pips on the week. Today's CPI m/m is still ahead, forecast 0.0% vs previous 0.4% at 13:30 WIB, and it is not a Section 4 card. SNB hike odds fell 2.49pp to 32.43%, inside the no-move band. The policy rate on the board is 0.0000%.
Crédit Agricole says a dovish SNB and resilient sentiment have left the franc underperforming since the war began, and that the funding appeal can outweigh spot losses from here. No second bank has a franc call in this window. The ING FX Daily is already quoted on the dollar card and is not repeated here.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "Dovish SNB and resilient market sentiment have seen the CHF underperform since the start of the war in the Middle East". one bank leans bearish (28–30 Sep). Retail is 72% long and speculators cut 3.6pp. One bank is not a research score. The final lean is positioning. CHF stays out of Section 4.
Current scenario: Hike 32.43% / Hold 67.57%. Prior (30 Sep daily): Hike 34.92% / Hold 65.08%. Delta Hike -2.49pp. Meeting 10 Dec. Current rate 0.0000%.
FRED real yields, dated 29 Sep because 30 Sep is not published, are 2.91%. That is +1bp on the day, inside the no-move band, and +28bp over five days, which is the bearish data lean. Nominal yields are 5.26%, +2bp on the day. The notable snapshot had the cash 10-year at 5.29%. That is not the FRED print and it is not used for the score. The market file has no COMEX gold close for 30 Sep. The notable file has spot gold down 0.5% in the 16:50 EDT snapshot.
MUFG has gold around USD 4,180/oz after a 1.6% gain the prior session, on track for an almost 6% September decline, with yields still the weight and the oil retreat only a partial offset. Syz flags a near 4% selloff as a day to study, which is not a direction.
MUFG: "elevated Treasury yields continued to weigh on gold". Crédit Agricole CIB: "gold remains the pre-eminent safe-haven asset". 2 of 2 banks do not agree (28–30 Sep). Managed money is +30.9% of open interest, crowded, so the weekly change is not used. Retail is 69% long.
No futures close in the market file. The real yield move over five days is the bearish lean. Nominal 5.26% and the notable 5.29% are not the same print.
There is no oil-supply file in the input folder. The supply read is taken only from the 1 Oct notable file, and that limit is stated here. Talks stalled and Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation out. UKMTO reported an LNG tanker struck on 29 Sep. Abqaiq was attacked. Trump at the same time cited historic Hormuz flows and almost total control of the Strait, and a White House deputy said a deal is still possible. Those headlines do not line up, so the latest-day and five-day supply scores do not move. The disruption, a strike plus an attack on Abqaiq, is the bullish piece.
The market file has Brent, the NYMEX last-day financial, at 98.03, up 1.94% on the day and down 0.09% on the week. It has no WTI close. The notable snapshot, which is not that close, had WTI Nov up 1.1% and Brent Dec up 1.8%. EIA crude in the notable file was +0.922M vs +0.5M vs 2.969M. The board print was 0.9M vs -0.7M vs 3.0M and was low impact. OPEC+ is reported to be holding quotas on Sunday. Bank oil notes are not given a score.
MUFG: "Recovering crude flows should temper supply-driven price pressures". Natixis CIB has Brent lower on Tuesday near $103.8/bbl as Hormuz flows were marked back toward pre-war levels. That is the other side of the notable file, not a second supply score. US–Iran news is on record. Retail is 60% long and cancels the disruption lean.
No policy meeting. Brent close 98.03 in the market file. WTI close unavailable. The bullish piece is the disruption in the notable file, not a bank call.
ES: The market file has no 30 Sep close for ESZ26. The notable snapshot had the SPX down 0.20% at 7,656 and ES Dec down 0.1%. Nominal yields rose 2bp to 5.26% on the FRED print, short of the 5bp line. There is no earnings beat or miss list in the inputs. Micron reports after the cash close and is not a result yet.
NQ: The market file has no 30 Sep close for NQZ26. The notable snapshot had the NDX up 0.23% at 30,409 and NQ Dec up 0.4%. That is not a one-percent shock, and yields did not fall, so there is no risk-off score. Retail is 73% short NQ and 51% short ES.
Crédit Agricole CIB: "our Risk Index has retreated only modestly and remains deep in risk-seeking territory". The FX Risk Index is quoted once. It was -1.0837 versus -1.1560 last week, still deep in risk-seeking territory, with the AI boom named as the reason oil and the bond selloff have not scared investors off. Speculators are short both contracts: ES changed -7.9pp on the week, NQ -8.8pp.
No policy board. The cash snapshot and the missing futures closes are not the same number. COT is the 22 Sep report because nothing newer is in the folder. Next release 2 Oct.
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Neutral. October hike odds are 43.87%, down 6.48pp from 50.35%. The high and medium prints offset. Retail is 75% short and cancels the bearish research lean. COT is still the 22 Sep report, next release 2 Oct.Research Score: -1 | -9.7% ShortCOT Score: 0 22 Sep -9.7% Short vs 15 Sep -11.2% Short (+1.5pp). Inside the no-signal band. | Short 75%Retail Score: +1 | Neutral 0 |
| EUR | Bearish, low conviction. 2 of 2 banks lean bearish (28–30 Sep). October hike odds are 41.11%, down 1.20pp from 42.31%. EUR/USD closed at 1.13408. Retail is 51% long.Research Score: -1 | -3.2% ShortCOT Score: 0 22 Sep -3.2% Short vs 15 Sep -3.1% Short (-0.2pp). Inside the no-signal band. | Long 51%Retail Score: 0 | Bearish -1 |
| GBP | Bullish, low conviction. Retail is 60% short and is the whole final lean. BoE hike odds are 81.87%, up 2.44pp from 79.43%. GBP/USD closed at 1.32328. The two banks do not agree.Research Score: 0 | +5.4% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +5.4% Long vs 15 Sep +6.0% Long (-0.6pp). Inside the no-signal band. | Short 60%Retail Score: +1 | Bullish +1 |
| AUD | Bullish, low conviction. Three high CPI misses and November hike odds at 29.61%, down 6.33pp from 35.94%, are a bearish research lean. Speculators added 6.8pp and retail is 56% short, so the final lean is bullish. AUD/USD closed at 0.69890.Research Score: -1 | +19.2% LongCOT Score: +1 22 Sep +19.2% Long vs 15 Sep +12.4% Long (+6.8pp). The weekly change clears the band. | Short 56%Retail Score: +1 | Bullish +1 |
| NZD | Bearish, high conviction. RBNZ hike odds are 62.17%, down 9.56pp from 71.73%. NZD/USD closed at 0.56408. Retail is 85% long. Speculators cut 3.4pp.Research Score: -1 | -4.7% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -4.7% Short vs 15 Sep -1.3% Short (-3.4pp). The weekly change clears the band. | Long 85%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -3 |
| CAD | Bearish, medium conviction. BoC hike odds are 53.88%, unchanged. USD/CAD closed at 1.41913. Retail is 60% long. Speculators cut 4.2pp.Research Score: 0 | -15.1% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -15.1% Short vs 15 Sep -10.9% Short (-4.2pp). The weekly change clears the band. | Long 60%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -2 |
| JPY | Bullish, low conviction. Retail is 76% short. BoJ hike odds are 31.55%, down 4.45pp from 36.00%. USD/JPY closed at 157.404. The bank page is not a clean lean.Research Score: 0 | +2.0% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +2.0% Long vs 15 Sep +4.3% Long (-2.3pp). Inside the no-signal band. | Short 76%Retail Score: +1 | Bullish +1 |
| CHF | Bearish, medium conviction. Retail is 72% long. SNB hike odds are 32.43%, down 2.49pp from 34.92%. USD/CHF closed at 0.83422. Speculators cut 3.6pp.Research Score: 0 | -12.3% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -12.3% Short vs 15 Sep -8.7% Short (-3.6pp). The weekly change clears the band. | Long 72%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -2 |
| Market | Section 2 Bias + Short Summary | COT | Retail Sentiment | Final Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Bearish, medium conviction. The real 10-year is 2.91%, up 1bp on the day and 28bp over five days. No COMEX close was in the market file. Retail is 69% long.Research Score: -1 | +30.9% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +30.9% Long vs 15 Sep +32.5% Long (-1.6pp). Crowded, so the weekly change is not used. | Long 69%Retail Score: -1 | Bearish -2 |
| Oil | Neutral. US–Iran news is on record: talks stalled and Abqaiq was attacked, while Trump cited historic Hormuz flows. Brent closed at 98.03. No WTI close was in the market file. Retail is 60% long and cancels the supply lean.Research Score: +1 | +5.5% LongCOT Score: 0 22 Sep +5.5% Long vs 15 Sep +5.4% Long (+0.1pp). The weekly change clears the band. | Long 60%Retail Score: -1 | Neutral 0 |
| ES | The market file has no 30 Sep close for ESZ26. The notable snapshot had the SPX down 0.20% at 7,656 and ES Dec down 0.1%. Nominal yields rose 2bp to 5.26% on the FRED print, short of the 5bp line. There is no earnings beat or miss list in the inputs. Micron reports after the cash close and is not a result yet.Research Score: 0 | -19.9% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -19.9% Short vs 15 Sep -12.0% Short (-7.9pp). The weekly change clears the band. | Short 51%Retail Score: 0 | Bearish -1 |
| NQ | The market file has no 30 Sep close for NQZ26. The notable snapshot had the NDX up 0.23% at 30,409 and NQ Dec up 0.4%. That is not a one-percent shock, and yields did not fall, so there is no risk-off score. Retail is 73% short NQ and 51% short ES.Research Score: 0 | -10.7% ShortCOT Score: -1 22 Sep -10.7% Short vs 15 Sep -2.0% Short (-8.8pp). The weekly change clears the band. | Short 73%Retail Score: +1 | Neutral 0 |